Global glacier volume projections under high-end climate change scenarios
The Paris agreement aims to hold global warming to well below 2 ∘C and to pursue efforts to limit it to 1.5 ∘C relative to the pre-industrial period. Recent estimates based on population growth and intended carbon emissions from participant countries suggest global warming may exceed this ambitious...
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ftdatacite:10.3929/ethz-b-000324871 2023-05-15T13:11:55+02:00 Global glacier volume projections under high-end climate change scenarios Shannon, Sarah Smith, Robin Wiltshire, Andy Payne, Tony Huss, Matthias Betts, Richard Caesar, John Koutroulis, Aris Jones, Darren Harrison, Stephan 2019 application/pdf https://dx.doi.org/10.3929/ethz-b-000324871 http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11850/324871 en eng ETH Zurich info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/legalcode cc-by-4.0 CC-BY Text article-journal Journal Article ScholarlyArticle 2019 ftdatacite https://doi.org/10.3929/ethz-b-000324871 2021-11-05T12:55:41Z The Paris agreement aims to hold global warming to well below 2 ∘C and to pursue efforts to limit it to 1.5 ∘C relative to the pre-industrial period. Recent estimates based on population growth and intended carbon emissions from participant countries suggest global warming may exceed this ambitious target. Here we present glacier volume projections for the end of this century, under a range of high-end climate change scenarios, defined as exceeding +2 ∘C global average warming relative to the pre-industrial period. Glacier volume is modelled by developing an elevation-dependent mass balance model for the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES). To do this, we modify JULES to include glaciated and unglaciated surfaces that can exist at multiple heights within a single grid box. Present-day mass balance is calibrated by tuning albedo, wind speed, precipitation, and temperature lapse rates to obtain the best agreement with observed mass balance profiles. JULES is forced with an ensemble of six Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models, which were downscaled using the high-resolution HadGEM3-A atmosphere-only global climate model. The CMIP5 models use the RCP8.5 climate change scenario and were selected on the criteria of passing 2 ∘C global average warming during this century. The ensemble mean volume loss at the end of the century plus or minus 1 standard deviation is −64±5 % for all glaciers excluding those on the peripheral of the Antarctic ice sheet. The uncertainty in the multi-model mean is rather small and caused by the sensitivity of HadGEM3-A to the boundary conditions supplied by the CMIP5 models. The regions which lose more than 75 % of their initial volume by the end of the century are Alaska, western Canada and the US, Iceland, Scandinavia, the Russian Arctic, central Europe, Caucasus, high-mountain Asia, low latitudes, southern Andes, and New Zealand. The ensemble mean ice loss expressed in sea level equivalent contribution is 215.2±21.3 mm. The largest contributors to sea level rise are Alaska (44.6±1.1 mm), Arctic Canada north and south (34.9±3.0 mm), the Russian Arctic (33.3±4.8 mm), Greenland (20.1±4.4), high-mountain Asia (combined central Asia, South Asia east and west), (18.0±0.8 mm), southern Andes (14.4±0.1 mm), and Svalbard (17.0±4.6 mm). Including parametric uncertainty in the calibrated mass balance parameters gives an upper bound global volume loss of 281.1 mm of sea level equivalent by the end of the century. Such large ice losses will have inevitable consequences for sea level rise and for water supply in glacier-fed river systems. : The Cryosphere, 13 (1) : ISSN:1994-0416 : ISSN:1994-0424 Text albedo Antarc* Antarctic Arctic Climate change glacier glacier glacier glacier glacier* glaciers Global warming Greenland Ice Sheet Iceland Svalbard Alaska DataCite Metadata Store (German National Library of Science and Technology) Arctic Antarctic The Antarctic Svalbard Canada Greenland New Zealand Jules ENVELOPE(140.917,140.917,-66.742,-66.742) |
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Open Polar |
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DataCite Metadata Store (German National Library of Science and Technology) |
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ftdatacite |
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English |
description |
The Paris agreement aims to hold global warming to well below 2 ∘C and to pursue efforts to limit it to 1.5 ∘C relative to the pre-industrial period. Recent estimates based on population growth and intended carbon emissions from participant countries suggest global warming may exceed this ambitious target. Here we present glacier volume projections for the end of this century, under a range of high-end climate change scenarios, defined as exceeding +2 ∘C global average warming relative to the pre-industrial period. Glacier volume is modelled by developing an elevation-dependent mass balance model for the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES). To do this, we modify JULES to include glaciated and unglaciated surfaces that can exist at multiple heights within a single grid box. Present-day mass balance is calibrated by tuning albedo, wind speed, precipitation, and temperature lapse rates to obtain the best agreement with observed mass balance profiles. JULES is forced with an ensemble of six Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models, which were downscaled using the high-resolution HadGEM3-A atmosphere-only global climate model. The CMIP5 models use the RCP8.5 climate change scenario and were selected on the criteria of passing 2 ∘C global average warming during this century. The ensemble mean volume loss at the end of the century plus or minus 1 standard deviation is −64±5 % for all glaciers excluding those on the peripheral of the Antarctic ice sheet. The uncertainty in the multi-model mean is rather small and caused by the sensitivity of HadGEM3-A to the boundary conditions supplied by the CMIP5 models. The regions which lose more than 75 % of their initial volume by the end of the century are Alaska, western Canada and the US, Iceland, Scandinavia, the Russian Arctic, central Europe, Caucasus, high-mountain Asia, low latitudes, southern Andes, and New Zealand. The ensemble mean ice loss expressed in sea level equivalent contribution is 215.2±21.3 mm. The largest contributors to sea level rise are Alaska (44.6±1.1 mm), Arctic Canada north and south (34.9±3.0 mm), the Russian Arctic (33.3±4.8 mm), Greenland (20.1±4.4), high-mountain Asia (combined central Asia, South Asia east and west), (18.0±0.8 mm), southern Andes (14.4±0.1 mm), and Svalbard (17.0±4.6 mm). Including parametric uncertainty in the calibrated mass balance parameters gives an upper bound global volume loss of 281.1 mm of sea level equivalent by the end of the century. Such large ice losses will have inevitable consequences for sea level rise and for water supply in glacier-fed river systems. : The Cryosphere, 13 (1) : ISSN:1994-0416 : ISSN:1994-0424 |
format |
Text |
author |
Shannon, Sarah Smith, Robin Wiltshire, Andy Payne, Tony Huss, Matthias Betts, Richard Caesar, John Koutroulis, Aris Jones, Darren Harrison, Stephan |
spellingShingle |
Shannon, Sarah Smith, Robin Wiltshire, Andy Payne, Tony Huss, Matthias Betts, Richard Caesar, John Koutroulis, Aris Jones, Darren Harrison, Stephan Global glacier volume projections under high-end climate change scenarios |
author_facet |
Shannon, Sarah Smith, Robin Wiltshire, Andy Payne, Tony Huss, Matthias Betts, Richard Caesar, John Koutroulis, Aris Jones, Darren Harrison, Stephan |
author_sort |
Shannon, Sarah |
title |
Global glacier volume projections under high-end climate change scenarios |
title_short |
Global glacier volume projections under high-end climate change scenarios |
title_full |
Global glacier volume projections under high-end climate change scenarios |
title_fullStr |
Global glacier volume projections under high-end climate change scenarios |
title_full_unstemmed |
Global glacier volume projections under high-end climate change scenarios |
title_sort |
global glacier volume projections under high-end climate change scenarios |
publisher |
ETH Zurich |
publishDate |
2019 |
url |
https://dx.doi.org/10.3929/ethz-b-000324871 http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11850/324871 |
long_lat |
ENVELOPE(140.917,140.917,-66.742,-66.742) |
geographic |
Arctic Antarctic The Antarctic Svalbard Canada Greenland New Zealand Jules |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Antarctic The Antarctic Svalbard Canada Greenland New Zealand Jules |
genre |
albedo Antarc* Antarctic Arctic Climate change glacier glacier glacier glacier glacier* glaciers Global warming Greenland Ice Sheet Iceland Svalbard Alaska |
genre_facet |
albedo Antarc* Antarctic Arctic Climate change glacier glacier glacier glacier glacier* glaciers Global warming Greenland Ice Sheet Iceland Svalbard Alaska |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/legalcode cc-by-4.0 |
op_rightsnorm |
CC-BY |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.3929/ethz-b-000324871 |
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1766249514762502144 |