Overview of system responsiveness to climate change impacts in energy, transport and tourist sectors

• Main Authors: Boesch, Patrick M., Ciari, Francesco, Perrels, Adriaan
• Format: Report
• Language: English
• Published: ETH Zurich 2014
• Subjects: Arctic; Climate change; Sea ice
• Online Access: https://dx.doi.org/10.3929/ethz-b-000082970; http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11850/82970

ToPDAd aims to provide a set of best-practice climate-change-strategies for regional stakeholders and decision makers in the sectors Energy, Tourism and Transport. These strategies are developed and supported by a state-of-the-art toolset of methodologies and models. To acquire a database on which these methodologies can be applied and from which strategic conclusions can be derived, different sector-specific as well as cross-sectorial case themes are studied in WP2. In Deliverable 2.3 these case themes are defined, including the specification of each case theme scenario. For each case the stepwise (modelling) approach is outlined, the planned output is described, and the system responsiveness is discussed. Furthermore, the baseline scenario combinations defined in Deliverable 2.1 are summarized and individual, case specific assumptions and scenario extensions are formulated. A general alignment for the baseline scenarios as well as a stepwise approach of the cases building on these baselines is proposed, so as to facilitate both comparability of case-theme results and use of the case-theme simulation results in subsequent steps (macro-economic models; and toolbox) in ToPDAd. The common baseline scenarios consist of three different combinations of representative concentration pathways (RCP) and shared socio-economic pathways (SSP). The first baseline scenario represents a sustainability oriented, open and co-operative world with low adaptation needs, the second scenario a divided world with moderate adaptation needs where Europe remains relatively wealthy and contributes to climate change mitigation and the third a growth oriented world with low regulation and high adaptation needs. These scenarios are explained in more detail in Deliverable 2.1. Each case theme implements some or all of these baseline scenarios. The different case themes cover different geographical areas and different weather situations (e.g. droughts vs. heavy rainfalls). Accordingly, they have very specific needs for weather and climate data. UAE is the only institution providing weather data in the project which ensures consistency across all case themes. The specific case themes are selected, defined and refined based on stakeholders’ feedbacks acquired in the recent months as part of WP6 of ToPDAd. This direct consultancy and involvement of the project’s target group guarantees relevancy and quality of the case themes. The case themes are sector-specific or cross-sectorial depending on which sectors are relevantly affected by the studied phenomena. The selected case themes are: Case-Theme 1 – Decreasing Snow Reliability (Sector: Tourism, Lead Beneficiary: JR): Decreasing reliability of winter snow cover in Alpine and Nordic ski tourist areas – common and different effects. Case-Theme 2 – Rise of Average Summer Temperatures (Tourism, JR): Rise of average summer temperatures and long term implications for summertime tourism – spatial and seasonal redistributions. Case-Theme 3 – Impact of Arctic Ice Melting (Transport, TML): Retreat of Arctic sea ice cover – implications for international logistics in Europe and beyond. Case-Theme 4 – Weather Extremes and Traffic (Transport, TML): Larger intra- & inter-seasonal variations in weather, incl. extremes – higher frequencies of unfavourable conditions (e.g. heavy rain). Case-Theme 5 – Variations in Energy Production (Energy, VTT): Larger intra- & inter-seasonal variability in power generation based on runoff, solar insolation and winds - implications for hydro, solar and wind power generation as well as the second order impacts in the rest of the power system. Case-Theme 6 – Effects of Flooding on Energy, Transport and Tourism (Cross-sectorial, 4CMR): Extreme weather events leading to flooding cause damage to a wide variety of infrastructure and production capacity in cities. Such damage can result in significant direct and indirect economic effects, which in turn can be reduced through allocation of resources to adaptation. Case-Theme 7 – Effects of protracted Drought and Heatwave on Energy, Transport and Tourism (Cross-sectorial, 4CMR): Protracted drought has lowered water levels and raised temperatures in rivers France, Germany and Benelux thereby seriously limiting cooling water availability. Despite maximum use of inter-regional transmission capacity it curtails electricity supply in various regions, while demand has risen due to a heat wave. Longer term changes in precipitation and temperature affect biomass production in Austria, curtailing availability of biomass for energy.