Supplementary data, code, and information for ‘Predictability of the recent slowdown and subsequent recovery of large-scale surface warming using statistical methods’ (Geophysical Research Letters, Mann et al. 2016)
The temporary slowdown in large-scale surface warming during the early 2000s has been attributed to both external and internal sources of climate variability. Using semiempirical estimates of the internal low-frequency variability component in Northern Hemisphere, Atlantic, and Pacific surface tempe...
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2016
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Online Access: | https://dx.doi.org/10.26208/3e4y-0h19 https://www.datacommons.psu.edu/commonswizard/MetadataDisplay.aspx?Dataset=6309 |
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ftdatacite:10.26208/3e4y-0h19 2023-05-15T17:32:24+02:00 Supplementary data, code, and information for ‘Predictability of the recent slowdown and subsequent recovery of large-scale surface warming using statistical methods’ (Geophysical Research Letters, Mann et al. 2016) Mann, M.E. Steinman, B.A. Miller, S.K. Frankcombe, L.H. England, M.H. Cheung, A.H. 2016 https://dx.doi.org/10.26208/3e4y-0h19 https://www.datacommons.psu.edu/commonswizard/MetadataDisplay.aspx?Dataset=6309 unknown Penn State Data Commons dataset Dataset 2016 ftdatacite https://doi.org/10.26208/3e4y-0h19 2021-11-05T12:55:41Z The temporary slowdown in large-scale surface warming during the early 2000s has been attributed to both external and internal sources of climate variability. Using semiempirical estimates of the internal low-frequency variability component in Northern Hemisphere, Atlantic, and Pacific surface temperatures in concert with statistical hindcast experiments, we investigate whether the slowdown and its recent recovery were predictable. We conclude that the internal variability of the North Pacific, which played a critical role in the slowdown, does not appear to have been predictable using statistical forecast methods. An additional minor contribution from the North Atlantic, by contrast, appears to exhibit some predictability. While our analyses focus on combining semiempirical estimates of internal climatic variability with statistical hindcast experiments, possible implications for initialized model predictions are also discussed. Dataset North Atlantic DataCite Metadata Store (German National Library of Science and Technology) Pacific |
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DataCite Metadata Store (German National Library of Science and Technology) |
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description |
The temporary slowdown in large-scale surface warming during the early 2000s has been attributed to both external and internal sources of climate variability. Using semiempirical estimates of the internal low-frequency variability component in Northern Hemisphere, Atlantic, and Pacific surface temperatures in concert with statistical hindcast experiments, we investigate whether the slowdown and its recent recovery were predictable. We conclude that the internal variability of the North Pacific, which played a critical role in the slowdown, does not appear to have been predictable using statistical forecast methods. An additional minor contribution from the North Atlantic, by contrast, appears to exhibit some predictability. While our analyses focus on combining semiempirical estimates of internal climatic variability with statistical hindcast experiments, possible implications for initialized model predictions are also discussed. |
format |
Dataset |
author |
Mann, M.E. Steinman, B.A. Miller, S.K. Frankcombe, L.H. England, M.H. Cheung, A.H. |
spellingShingle |
Mann, M.E. Steinman, B.A. Miller, S.K. Frankcombe, L.H. England, M.H. Cheung, A.H. Supplementary data, code, and information for ‘Predictability of the recent slowdown and subsequent recovery of large-scale surface warming using statistical methods’ (Geophysical Research Letters, Mann et al. 2016) |
author_facet |
Mann, M.E. Steinman, B.A. Miller, S.K. Frankcombe, L.H. England, M.H. Cheung, A.H. |
author_sort |
Mann, M.E. |
title |
Supplementary data, code, and information for ‘Predictability of the recent slowdown and subsequent recovery of large-scale surface warming using statistical methods’ (Geophysical Research Letters, Mann et al. 2016) |
title_short |
Supplementary data, code, and information for ‘Predictability of the recent slowdown and subsequent recovery of large-scale surface warming using statistical methods’ (Geophysical Research Letters, Mann et al. 2016) |
title_full |
Supplementary data, code, and information for ‘Predictability of the recent slowdown and subsequent recovery of large-scale surface warming using statistical methods’ (Geophysical Research Letters, Mann et al. 2016) |
title_fullStr |
Supplementary data, code, and information for ‘Predictability of the recent slowdown and subsequent recovery of large-scale surface warming using statistical methods’ (Geophysical Research Letters, Mann et al. 2016) |
title_full_unstemmed |
Supplementary data, code, and information for ‘Predictability of the recent slowdown and subsequent recovery of large-scale surface warming using statistical methods’ (Geophysical Research Letters, Mann et al. 2016) |
title_sort |
supplementary data, code, and information for ‘predictability of the recent slowdown and subsequent recovery of large-scale surface warming using statistical methods’ (geophysical research letters, mann et al. 2016) |
publisher |
Penn State Data Commons |
publishDate |
2016 |
url |
https://dx.doi.org/10.26208/3e4y-0h19 https://www.datacommons.psu.edu/commonswizard/MetadataDisplay.aspx?Dataset=6309 |
geographic |
Pacific |
geographic_facet |
Pacific |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.26208/3e4y-0h19 |
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1766130503973339136 |