Medium-range numerical prediction of Antarctic sea ice ...

• Main Author: Roberts, Andrew Frank
• Format: Thesis
• Language: unknown
• Published: University Of Tasmania 2023
• Subjects: Antarctic; Southern Ocean; Antarc*; Sea ice
• Online Access: https://dx.doi.org/10.25959/23244959; https://figshare.utas.edu.au/articles/thesis/Medium-range_numerical_prediction_of_Antarctic_sea_ice/23244959

This research investigates the use of a multiple-thickness sea-ice model for opera- tional Antarctic sea-ice forecasts. Deterministic predictions are generated with a finite difference sea-ice model for the Southern Ocean. The forecast model includes a new method for ridging sea ice on semi-diurnal timescales and includes a modified Coulombic rheology. This approach differs from formalistic techniques used in existing thickness distribution models, and is introduced to simulate oriented fractures with multiple thickness- categories. Behaviour of the dynamic component of the model is assessed on a test grid to illustrate its properties and numerical limitations. The dynamic component is then combined with a constant salinity, enthalpy-conserving thermodynamic model on a 50 km resolution polar stereographic grid using 11 thickness categories to simulate circum-Antarctic sea ice. Sea-ice assimilations are generated for observation intensive years (1992 and 1996) to compare model output with drafts from Upward ...