Projected changes in persistent extreme summer weather events : the role of quasi-resonant amplification
Persistent episodes of extreme weather in the Northern Hemisphere summer have been associated with high-amplitude quasi-stationary atmospheric Rossby waves, with zonal wave numbers 6 to 8 resulting from the phenomenon of quasi-resonant amplification (QRA). A fingerprint for the occurrence of QRA can...
Main Authors: | , , , , , , |
---|---|
Format: | Text |
Language: | English |
Published: |
Universität Potsdam
2020
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | https://dx.doi.org/10.25932/publishup-44641 https://publishup.uni-potsdam.de/44641 |
id |
ftdatacite:10.25932/publishup-44641 |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
spelling |
ftdatacite:10.25932/publishup-44641 2023-05-15T14:57:08+02:00 Projected changes in persistent extreme summer weather events : the role of quasi-resonant amplification Mann, Michael E. Rahmstorf, Stefan Kornhuber, Kai Steinman, Byron A. Miller, Sonya K. Petri, Stefan Coumou, Dim 2020 application/pdf application/zip https://dx.doi.org/10.25932/publishup-44641 https://publishup.uni-potsdam.de/44641 en eng Universität Potsdam Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/legalcode cc-by-4.0 CC-BY article-journal Text ScholarlyArticle 2020 ftdatacite https://doi.org/10.25932/publishup-44641 2021-11-05T12:55:41Z Persistent episodes of extreme weather in the Northern Hemisphere summer have been associated with high-amplitude quasi-stationary atmospheric Rossby waves, with zonal wave numbers 6 to 8 resulting from the phenomenon of quasi-resonant amplification (QRA). A fingerprint for the occurrence of QRA can be defined in terms of the zonally averaged surface temperature field. Examining state-of-the-art [Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5)] climate model projections, we find that QRA events are likely to increase by similar to 50% this century under business-as-usual carbon emissions, but there is considerable variation among climate models. Some predict a near tripling of QRA events by the end of the century, while others predict a potential decrease. Models with amplified Arctic warming yield the most pronounced increase in QRA events. The projections are strongly dependent on assumptions regarding the nature of changes in radiative forcing associated with anthropogenic aerosols over the next century. One implication of our findings is that a reduction in midlatitude aerosol loading could actually lead to Arctic de-amplification this century, ameliorating potential increases in persistent extreme weather events. : Postprints der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe, 994 Text Arctic DataCite Metadata Store (German National Library of Science and Technology) Arctic |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
DataCite Metadata Store (German National Library of Science and Technology) |
op_collection_id |
ftdatacite |
language |
English |
description |
Persistent episodes of extreme weather in the Northern Hemisphere summer have been associated with high-amplitude quasi-stationary atmospheric Rossby waves, with zonal wave numbers 6 to 8 resulting from the phenomenon of quasi-resonant amplification (QRA). A fingerprint for the occurrence of QRA can be defined in terms of the zonally averaged surface temperature field. Examining state-of-the-art [Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5)] climate model projections, we find that QRA events are likely to increase by similar to 50% this century under business-as-usual carbon emissions, but there is considerable variation among climate models. Some predict a near tripling of QRA events by the end of the century, while others predict a potential decrease. Models with amplified Arctic warming yield the most pronounced increase in QRA events. The projections are strongly dependent on assumptions regarding the nature of changes in radiative forcing associated with anthropogenic aerosols over the next century. One implication of our findings is that a reduction in midlatitude aerosol loading could actually lead to Arctic de-amplification this century, ameliorating potential increases in persistent extreme weather events. : Postprints der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe, 994 |
format |
Text |
author |
Mann, Michael E. Rahmstorf, Stefan Kornhuber, Kai Steinman, Byron A. Miller, Sonya K. Petri, Stefan Coumou, Dim |
spellingShingle |
Mann, Michael E. Rahmstorf, Stefan Kornhuber, Kai Steinman, Byron A. Miller, Sonya K. Petri, Stefan Coumou, Dim Projected changes in persistent extreme summer weather events : the role of quasi-resonant amplification |
author_facet |
Mann, Michael E. Rahmstorf, Stefan Kornhuber, Kai Steinman, Byron A. Miller, Sonya K. Petri, Stefan Coumou, Dim |
author_sort |
Mann, Michael E. |
title |
Projected changes in persistent extreme summer weather events : the role of quasi-resonant amplification |
title_short |
Projected changes in persistent extreme summer weather events : the role of quasi-resonant amplification |
title_full |
Projected changes in persistent extreme summer weather events : the role of quasi-resonant amplification |
title_fullStr |
Projected changes in persistent extreme summer weather events : the role of quasi-resonant amplification |
title_full_unstemmed |
Projected changes in persistent extreme summer weather events : the role of quasi-resonant amplification |
title_sort |
projected changes in persistent extreme summer weather events : the role of quasi-resonant amplification |
publisher |
Universität Potsdam |
publishDate |
2020 |
url |
https://dx.doi.org/10.25932/publishup-44641 https://publishup.uni-potsdam.de/44641 |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic |
genre_facet |
Arctic |
op_rights |
Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/legalcode cc-by-4.0 |
op_rightsnorm |
CC-BY |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.25932/publishup-44641 |
_version_ |
1766329233169186816 |