Analyses of the Results from the Island Closure Feasibility Study for the Dassen/Robben and St Croix/Bird Island Pairs
The results from the Island Closure Feasibility Study are analysed using the GLMs as set out at the 2010 international stock assessment workshop. Estimates of residual variance for a random year effects GLM for the various penguin response variables are considered to be sufficiently precise to enabl...
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ftdatacite:10.25375/uct.19383317.v1 2023-05-15T15:44:41+02:00 Analyses of the Results from the Island Closure Feasibility Study for the Dassen/Robben and St Croix/Bird Island Pairs Robinson, William Butterworth, Doug Furman, Liam 2022 https://dx.doi.org/10.25375/uct.19383317.v1 https://zivahub.uct.ac.za/articles/report/Analyses_of_the_Results_from_the_Island_Closure_Feasibility_Study_for_the_Dassen_Robben_and_St_Croix_Bird_Island_Pairs/19383317/1 unknown University of Cape Town https://dx.doi.org/10.25375/uct.19383317 Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/legalcode cc-by-4.0 CC-BY 10401 Applied Statistics FOS Mathematics 10202 Biological Mathematics 10402 Biostatistics report Report Other 2022 ftdatacite https://doi.org/10.25375/uct.19383317.v1 https://doi.org/10.25375/uct.19383317 2022-04-01T18:14:02Z The results from the Island Closure Feasibility Study are analysed using the GLMs as set out at the 2010 international stock assessment workshop. Estimates of residual variance for a random year effects GLM for the various penguin response variables are considered to be sufficiently precise to enable power analyses to be conducted to contribute to the evaluation of whether to transition to a full experimental closures programme, so that the feasibility study may be considered successfully concluded. For the Dassen and Robben Islands about 80% of the estimates of the fishing effect parameter λ are positive, with this same proportion maintained for those (about one sixth) of these estimates which are significant at the 5% level. Thus the preponderance of the evidence from these analyses is that the impact of fishing around these islands has been positive. The rather fewer instances available to analyse for the Eastern Cape colonies suggest a weakly positive effect at Bird Island, but a somewhat stronger negative effect at St Croix. The power analyses suggest that in cases for Dassen and Robben Islands where further data collection might render currently non-significant λ estimates significant at the 5% level within the next two decades, the likely period required for such further collection would typically be in the vicinity of five years. The advantage provided by continuing the closure programme itself seems however to be slight, as the natural variation over time in normal catches would be sufficient to provide the contrast to achieve such results with only typically two years’ extension to those five years. For the two Eastern Cape islands, it seems that results which are statistically significant at the 5% level seem unlikely to be achieved in the foreseeable future – a result which may be a consequence of the relatively low levels of sardine catches typically taken close to those islands. Report Bird Island DataCite Metadata Store (German National Library of Science and Technology) Bird Island ENVELOPE(-38.060,-38.060,-54.004,-54.004) |
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Open Polar |
collection |
DataCite Metadata Store (German National Library of Science and Technology) |
op_collection_id |
ftdatacite |
language |
unknown |
topic |
10401 Applied Statistics FOS Mathematics 10202 Biological Mathematics 10402 Biostatistics |
spellingShingle |
10401 Applied Statistics FOS Mathematics 10202 Biological Mathematics 10402 Biostatistics Robinson, William Butterworth, Doug Furman, Liam Analyses of the Results from the Island Closure Feasibility Study for the Dassen/Robben and St Croix/Bird Island Pairs |
topic_facet |
10401 Applied Statistics FOS Mathematics 10202 Biological Mathematics 10402 Biostatistics |
description |
The results from the Island Closure Feasibility Study are analysed using the GLMs as set out at the 2010 international stock assessment workshop. Estimates of residual variance for a random year effects GLM for the various penguin response variables are considered to be sufficiently precise to enable power analyses to be conducted to contribute to the evaluation of whether to transition to a full experimental closures programme, so that the feasibility study may be considered successfully concluded. For the Dassen and Robben Islands about 80% of the estimates of the fishing effect parameter λ are positive, with this same proportion maintained for those (about one sixth) of these estimates which are significant at the 5% level. Thus the preponderance of the evidence from these analyses is that the impact of fishing around these islands has been positive. The rather fewer instances available to analyse for the Eastern Cape colonies suggest a weakly positive effect at Bird Island, but a somewhat stronger negative effect at St Croix. The power analyses suggest that in cases for Dassen and Robben Islands where further data collection might render currently non-significant λ estimates significant at the 5% level within the next two decades, the likely period required for such further collection would typically be in the vicinity of five years. The advantage provided by continuing the closure programme itself seems however to be slight, as the natural variation over time in normal catches would be sufficient to provide the contrast to achieve such results with only typically two years’ extension to those five years. For the two Eastern Cape islands, it seems that results which are statistically significant at the 5% level seem unlikely to be achieved in the foreseeable future – a result which may be a consequence of the relatively low levels of sardine catches typically taken close to those islands. |
format |
Report |
author |
Robinson, William Butterworth, Doug Furman, Liam |
author_facet |
Robinson, William Butterworth, Doug Furman, Liam |
author_sort |
Robinson, William |
title |
Analyses of the Results from the Island Closure Feasibility Study for the Dassen/Robben and St Croix/Bird Island Pairs |
title_short |
Analyses of the Results from the Island Closure Feasibility Study for the Dassen/Robben and St Croix/Bird Island Pairs |
title_full |
Analyses of the Results from the Island Closure Feasibility Study for the Dassen/Robben and St Croix/Bird Island Pairs |
title_fullStr |
Analyses of the Results from the Island Closure Feasibility Study for the Dassen/Robben and St Croix/Bird Island Pairs |
title_full_unstemmed |
Analyses of the Results from the Island Closure Feasibility Study for the Dassen/Robben and St Croix/Bird Island Pairs |
title_sort |
analyses of the results from the island closure feasibility study for the dassen/robben and st croix/bird island pairs |
publisher |
University of Cape Town |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
https://dx.doi.org/10.25375/uct.19383317.v1 https://zivahub.uct.ac.za/articles/report/Analyses_of_the_Results_from_the_Island_Closure_Feasibility_Study_for_the_Dassen_Robben_and_St_Croix_Bird_Island_Pairs/19383317/1 |
long_lat |
ENVELOPE(-38.060,-38.060,-54.004,-54.004) |
geographic |
Bird Island |
geographic_facet |
Bird Island |
genre |
Bird Island |
genre_facet |
Bird Island |
op_relation |
https://dx.doi.org/10.25375/uct.19383317 |
op_rights |
Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/legalcode cc-by-4.0 |
op_rightsnorm |
CC-BY |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.25375/uct.19383317.v1 https://doi.org/10.25375/uct.19383317 |
_version_ |
1766379064706203648 |