Contribution of the Greenland Ice Sheet to sea-level over the next millennium using Large Ensemble Simulations, final state in year 3007 part 2, 2008-3007

• Main Author: Aschwanden, Andy
• Format: Dataset
• Language: English
• Published: Arctic Data Center 2019
• Subjects: ice sheets; cryosphere models; PISM; ice sheet model; Greenland; glacier; Ice Sheet
• Online Access: https://dx.doi.org/10.18739/a2ns0kx61; https://arcticdata.io/catalog/#view/doi:10.18739/A2NS0KX61

The Greenland Ice Sheet holds around 7.2 meters of sea-level equivalent. In recent decades rising atmosphere and ocean temperatures have led to an acceleration in mass loss, adding an average of about 0.5 millimeters per year to global mean sea-level between 1991 and 2015. Current ice margin recession in Greenland is led by the retreat of outlet glaciers, the large rivers of ice ending in narrow fjords that drain the ice sheet interior. Recent progress in measuring ice thickness is enabling models to reproduce the complex flow patterns found in outlet glaciers, a key step towards realistic projections. Here we pair an outlet glacier resolving ice sheet model with a comprehensive uncertainty quantification to estimate Greenland's contribution to sea-level over the next millennium under different climate forcings. We find that Greenland could contribute 5-33 centimeters to sea-level by 2100 and 11-155 centimeters by 2200, with discharge from outlet glaciers contributing 6-45% of the total mass loss. Our analysis shows that uncertainties in projecting mass loss are dominated by uncertainties in climate scenarios and surface processes, followed by ice dynamics, whereas uncertainties in ocean conditions play a minor role, particularly in the long term. We project that Greenland will very likely become ice-free within a millennium without significant reductions in greenhouse gas emissions. This dataset compilation contains the simulations for the manuscript "Contribution of the Greenland Ice Sheet to sea-level over the next millennium" prepared with the Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM). This dataset provides the final states at the year 3007 of the simulations that succesfully finished (some simulations did not converge) for the RCPs (Representative Concentration Pathways) 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5 for LES (Large Ensemble Simulation) ids 000-499.