Contribution of the Greenland Ice Sheet to sea-level over the next millennium using Large Ensemble Simulations, spatial time series, 2008-3007
The Greenland Ice Sheet holds around 7.2 meters of sea-level equivalent. In recent decades rising atmosphere and ocean temperatures have led to an acceleration in mass loss, adding an average of about 0.5 millimeters per year to global mean sea-level between 1991 and 2015. Current ice margin recessi...
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ftdatacite:10.18739/a29g5gd39 2023-05-15T16:21:16+02:00 Contribution of the Greenland Ice Sheet to sea-level over the next millennium using Large Ensemble Simulations, spatial time series, 2008-3007 Aschwanden, Andy 2019 text/xml https://dx.doi.org/10.18739/a29g5gd39 https://arcticdata.io/catalog/#view/doi:10.18739/A29G5GD39 en eng Arctic Data Center ice sheets cryosphere models PISM ice sheet model dataset Dataset 2019 ftdatacite https://doi.org/10.18739/a29g5gd39 2021-11-05T12:55:41Z The Greenland Ice Sheet holds around 7.2 meters of sea-level equivalent. In recent decades rising atmosphere and ocean temperatures have led to an acceleration in mass loss, adding an average of about 0.5 millimeters per year to global mean sea-level between 1991 and 2015. Current ice margin recession in Greenland is led by the retreat of outlet glaciers, the large rivers of ice ending in narrow fjords that drain the ice sheet interior. Recent progress in measuring ice thickness is enabling models to reproduce the complex flow patterns found in outlet glaciers, a key step towards realistic projections. Here we pair an outlet glacier resolving ice sheet model with a comprehensive uncertainty quantification to estimate Greenland's contribution to sea-level over the next millennium under different climate forcings. We find that Greenland could contribute 5-33 centimeters to sea-level by 2100 and 11-155 centimeters by 2200, with discharge from outlet glaciers contributing 6-45% of the total mass loss. Our analysis shows that uncertainties in projecting mass loss are dominated by uncertainties in climate scenarios and surface processes, followed by ice dynamics, whereas uncertainties in ocean conditions play a minor role, particularly in the long term. We project that Greenland will very likely become ice-free within a millennium without significant reductions in greenhouse gas emissions. This dataset compilation contains the simulations for the manuscript "Contribution of the Greenland Ice Sheet to sea-level over the next millennium" prepared with the Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM). This dataset provides the likelihood of a pixel being ice covered at the year 3007 for the RCPs (Representative Concentration Pathways) 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5 for LES (Large Ensemble Simulations). Dataset glacier Greenland Ice Sheet DataCite Metadata Store (German National Library of Science and Technology) Greenland |
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Open Polar |
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DataCite Metadata Store (German National Library of Science and Technology) |
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ftdatacite |
language |
English |
topic |
ice sheets cryosphere models PISM ice sheet model |
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ice sheets cryosphere models PISM ice sheet model Aschwanden, Andy Contribution of the Greenland Ice Sheet to sea-level over the next millennium using Large Ensemble Simulations, spatial time series, 2008-3007 |
topic_facet |
ice sheets cryosphere models PISM ice sheet model |
description |
The Greenland Ice Sheet holds around 7.2 meters of sea-level equivalent. In recent decades rising atmosphere and ocean temperatures have led to an acceleration in mass loss, adding an average of about 0.5 millimeters per year to global mean sea-level between 1991 and 2015. Current ice margin recession in Greenland is led by the retreat of outlet glaciers, the large rivers of ice ending in narrow fjords that drain the ice sheet interior. Recent progress in measuring ice thickness is enabling models to reproduce the complex flow patterns found in outlet glaciers, a key step towards realistic projections. Here we pair an outlet glacier resolving ice sheet model with a comprehensive uncertainty quantification to estimate Greenland's contribution to sea-level over the next millennium under different climate forcings. We find that Greenland could contribute 5-33 centimeters to sea-level by 2100 and 11-155 centimeters by 2200, with discharge from outlet glaciers contributing 6-45% of the total mass loss. Our analysis shows that uncertainties in projecting mass loss are dominated by uncertainties in climate scenarios and surface processes, followed by ice dynamics, whereas uncertainties in ocean conditions play a minor role, particularly in the long term. We project that Greenland will very likely become ice-free within a millennium without significant reductions in greenhouse gas emissions. This dataset compilation contains the simulations for the manuscript "Contribution of the Greenland Ice Sheet to sea-level over the next millennium" prepared with the Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM). This dataset provides the likelihood of a pixel being ice covered at the year 3007 for the RCPs (Representative Concentration Pathways) 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5 for LES (Large Ensemble Simulations). |
format |
Dataset |
author |
Aschwanden, Andy |
author_facet |
Aschwanden, Andy |
author_sort |
Aschwanden, Andy |
title |
Contribution of the Greenland Ice Sheet to sea-level over the next millennium using Large Ensemble Simulations, spatial time series, 2008-3007 |
title_short |
Contribution of the Greenland Ice Sheet to sea-level over the next millennium using Large Ensemble Simulations, spatial time series, 2008-3007 |
title_full |
Contribution of the Greenland Ice Sheet to sea-level over the next millennium using Large Ensemble Simulations, spatial time series, 2008-3007 |
title_fullStr |
Contribution of the Greenland Ice Sheet to sea-level over the next millennium using Large Ensemble Simulations, spatial time series, 2008-3007 |
title_full_unstemmed |
Contribution of the Greenland Ice Sheet to sea-level over the next millennium using Large Ensemble Simulations, spatial time series, 2008-3007 |
title_sort |
contribution of the greenland ice sheet to sea-level over the next millennium using large ensemble simulations, spatial time series, 2008-3007 |
publisher |
Arctic Data Center |
publishDate |
2019 |
url |
https://dx.doi.org/10.18739/a29g5gd39 https://arcticdata.io/catalog/#view/doi:10.18739/A29G5GD39 |
geographic |
Greenland |
geographic_facet |
Greenland |
genre |
glacier Greenland Ice Sheet |
genre_facet |
glacier Greenland Ice Sheet |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.18739/a29g5gd39 |
_version_ |
1766009271261069312 |