Large carnivore range expansion in Iberia in relation to different scenarios of permeability of human‐dominated landscapes ...

• Main Authors: Pratzer, Marie, Nill, Leon, Kuemmerle, Tobias, Zurell, Damaris, Fandos, Guillermo
• Format: Text
• Language: English
• Published: Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin 2022
• Subjects: dispersal dynamics; habitat suitability; large carnivores; megafauna; niche models; range expansion; recolonization; simulation models; 550 Geowissenschaften; Ursus arctos; Lynx
• Online Access: https://dx.doi.org/10.18452/27124; https://edoc.hu-berlin.de/handle/18452/27791

Aim Large carnivores are currently recolonizing parts of their historical ranges in Europe after centuries of persecution and habitat loss. Understanding the mechanisms driving these recolonizations is important for proactive conservation planning. Using the brown bear (Ursus arctos) and the Iberian lynx (Lynx pardinus) as examples, we explore where and when large carnivores are likely to expand into human-dominated landscapes and how varying levels of resistance due to human pressure might impact this recolonization process. Location Iberian Peninsula. Methods We used ensembles of species distribution models to relate species occurrence data to climate, topography and satellite-based land-cover predictors at a 10 km spatial resolution. Resulting predictions of suitable habitat areas were fed into a dispersal model to simulate range expansion over the 10 time-steps for different human pressure scenarios. Finally, we overlaid predictions with protected areas to highlight areas that are likely key for future ...