Water Quality in the Schuylkill River, Pennsylvania: The Potential for Long‐Lead Forecasts

• Main Author: Leung, Kinman
• Format: Text
• Language: English
• Published: Drexel University 2021
• Subjects: Civil engineering; FOS Civil engineering; Water quality > Measurement > Pennsylvania > Philadelphia; Water quality > Long-range weather forecasts > Pennsylvania > Philadelphia; North Atlantic
• Online Access: https://dx.doi.org/10.17918/etd-4246; https://ResearchDiscovery.drexel.edu/discovery/fulldisplay/alma991014632409604721/01DRXU_INST:ResearchRepository

Prior analysis of bacteria levels in the Schuylkill River has led to a categorical daily forecast of water quality. The forecast, available online to the public through the Philadelphia Water Department website, is predominantly based on local streamflow and precipitation data. In this study, we explore the feasibility of extending the forecast to the seasonal scale by associating large‐scale climate drivers with local streamflow and water quality parameter levels. This advance information may be relevant for decision‐makers concerned with recreational activities, ecosystem health, and water treatment (energy, chemicals), as the Schuylkill River provides approximately 40% of Philadelphia's water supply. Results indicate moderately skillful prediction of average summer total coliform and winter turbidity, using season‐ahead oceanic and atmospheric variables, predominantly from the North Atlantic Ocean. Models predicting the number of elevated turbidity events across the winter season are also explored.