On the predictive potential of spatially-explicit IBMs: Can larvae fish IBMs be used to predict recruitment success, results from a multi-decadal simulation of Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) in the North Sea ...

• Main Authors: Daewel, Ute, Schrum, Corinna
• Format: Conference Object
• Language: unknown
• Published: ASC 2013 - Theme session B 2024
• Subjects: The sea and human culture and societies; Pressures, impacts, conservation, and management; atlantic cod; Gadus morhua
• Online Access: https://dx.doi.org/10.17895/ices.pub.24753015.v1; https://ices-library.figshare.com/articles/conference_contribution/On_the_predictive_potential_of_spatially-explicit_IBMs_Can_larvae_fish_IBMs_be_used_to_predict_recruitment_success_results_from_a_multi-decadal_simulation_of_Atlantic_cod_Gadus_morhua_in_the_North_Sea/24753015/1

No abstracts are to be cited without prior reference to the author. Recruitment of Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) in the North Sea is determined by a chain of processes impacting survival of early life stages, which are difficult to derive from observations only. Here, we utilized a spatially-explicit Individual Based Model for North Sea Atlantic cod linked to a 3d ecosystem model (ECOSMO) to disentangle processes relevant for long-term changes in potential larval survival (PLS). The model was integrated over a 60-year time period (1949-2008) and the results were analysed using common statistical methods. The simulated long-term dynamics in annual PLS exhibited pronounced year-to-year variability and a significant decrease after 1989. Ten environmental parameters were analysed with respect to their relevance for PLS whereof only water temperature and the u-component of the velocity field showed the same significant shift after 1989. A subsequent correlation analysis with observed Atlantic cod recruitment in the ...