Climate change penalty and benefit on surface ozone: a global perspective based on CMIP6 earth system models
Funder: Hadley Centre : Funder: BEIS : Funder: NERC : Funder: Met Office; doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100000847 : Funder: Japan Society for the Promotion of Science; doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001691 : Funder: Public Investment Program of the Ministry of Development and Investments...
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ftdatacite:10.17863/cam.80810 2023-05-15T15:17:45+02:00 Climate change penalty and benefit on surface ozone: a global perspective based on CMIP6 earth system models Zanis, Prodromos Akritidis, Dimitris Turnock, Steven Naik, Vaishali Szopa, Sophie Georgoulias, Aristeidis K Bauer, Susanne E Deushi, Makoto Horowitz, Larry W Keeble, James Le Sager, Philippe O’Connor, Fiona M Oshima, Naga Tsigaridis, Konstantinos Van Noije, Twan 2022 https://dx.doi.org/10.17863/cam.80810 https://www.repository.cam.ac.uk/handle/1810/333387 unknown Apollo - University of Cambridge Repository Letter climate change surface ozone benefit penalty CMIP6 ESMs Other article Collection CreativeWork 2022 ftdatacite https://doi.org/10.17863/cam.80810 2022-02-09T14:03:56Z Funder: Hadley Centre : Funder: BEIS : Funder: NERC : Funder: Met Office; doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100000847 : Funder: Japan Society for the Promotion of Science; doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001691 : Funder: Public Investment Program of the Ministry of Development and Investments of Greece : Abstract: This work presents an analysis of the effect of climate change on surface ozone discussing the related penalties and benefits around the globe from the global modelling perspective based on simulations with five CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6) Earth System Models. As part of AerChemMIP (Aerosol Chemistry Model Intercomparison Project) all models conducted simulation experiments considering future climate (ssp370SST) and present-day climate (ssp370pdSST) under the same future emissions trajectory (SSP3-7.0). A multi-model global average climate change benefit on surface ozone of −0.96 ± 0.07 ppbv °C−1 is calculated which is mainly linked to the dominating role of enhanced ozone destruction with higher water vapour abundances under a warmer climate. Over regions remote from pollution sources, there is a robust decline in mean surface ozone concentration on an annual basis as well as for boreal winter and summer varying spatially from −0.2 to −2 ppbv °C−1, with strongest decline over tropical oceanic regions. The implication is that over regions remote from pollution sources (except over the Arctic) there is a consistent climate change benefit for baseline ozone due to global warming. However, ozone increases over regions close to anthropogenic pollution sources or close to enhanced natural biogenic volatile organic compounds emission sources with a rate ranging regionally from 0.2 to 2 ppbv C−1, implying a regional surface ozone penalty due to global warming. Overall, the future climate change enhances the efficiency of precursor emissions to generate surface ozone in polluted regions and thus the magnitude of this effect depends on the regional emission changes considered in this study within the SSP3_7.0 scenario. The comparison of the climate change impact effect on surface ozone versus the combined effect of climate and emission changes indicates the dominant role of precursor emission changes in projecting surface ozone concentrations under future climate change scenarios. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Climate change Global warming DataCite Metadata Store (German National Library of Science and Technology) Arctic |
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DataCite Metadata Store (German National Library of Science and Technology) |
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Letter climate change surface ozone benefit penalty CMIP6 ESMs |
spellingShingle |
Letter climate change surface ozone benefit penalty CMIP6 ESMs Zanis, Prodromos Akritidis, Dimitris Turnock, Steven Naik, Vaishali Szopa, Sophie Georgoulias, Aristeidis K Bauer, Susanne E Deushi, Makoto Horowitz, Larry W Keeble, James Le Sager, Philippe O’Connor, Fiona M Oshima, Naga Tsigaridis, Konstantinos Van Noije, Twan Climate change penalty and benefit on surface ozone: a global perspective based on CMIP6 earth system models |
topic_facet |
Letter climate change surface ozone benefit penalty CMIP6 ESMs |
description |
Funder: Hadley Centre : Funder: BEIS : Funder: NERC : Funder: Met Office; doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100000847 : Funder: Japan Society for the Promotion of Science; doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001691 : Funder: Public Investment Program of the Ministry of Development and Investments of Greece : Abstract: This work presents an analysis of the effect of climate change on surface ozone discussing the related penalties and benefits around the globe from the global modelling perspective based on simulations with five CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6) Earth System Models. As part of AerChemMIP (Aerosol Chemistry Model Intercomparison Project) all models conducted simulation experiments considering future climate (ssp370SST) and present-day climate (ssp370pdSST) under the same future emissions trajectory (SSP3-7.0). A multi-model global average climate change benefit on surface ozone of −0.96 ± 0.07 ppbv °C−1 is calculated which is mainly linked to the dominating role of enhanced ozone destruction with higher water vapour abundances under a warmer climate. Over regions remote from pollution sources, there is a robust decline in mean surface ozone concentration on an annual basis as well as for boreal winter and summer varying spatially from −0.2 to −2 ppbv °C−1, with strongest decline over tropical oceanic regions. The implication is that over regions remote from pollution sources (except over the Arctic) there is a consistent climate change benefit for baseline ozone due to global warming. However, ozone increases over regions close to anthropogenic pollution sources or close to enhanced natural biogenic volatile organic compounds emission sources with a rate ranging regionally from 0.2 to 2 ppbv C−1, implying a regional surface ozone penalty due to global warming. Overall, the future climate change enhances the efficiency of precursor emissions to generate surface ozone in polluted regions and thus the magnitude of this effect depends on the regional emission changes considered in this study within the SSP3_7.0 scenario. The comparison of the climate change impact effect on surface ozone versus the combined effect of climate and emission changes indicates the dominant role of precursor emission changes in projecting surface ozone concentrations under future climate change scenarios. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Zanis, Prodromos Akritidis, Dimitris Turnock, Steven Naik, Vaishali Szopa, Sophie Georgoulias, Aristeidis K Bauer, Susanne E Deushi, Makoto Horowitz, Larry W Keeble, James Le Sager, Philippe O’Connor, Fiona M Oshima, Naga Tsigaridis, Konstantinos Van Noije, Twan |
author_facet |
Zanis, Prodromos Akritidis, Dimitris Turnock, Steven Naik, Vaishali Szopa, Sophie Georgoulias, Aristeidis K Bauer, Susanne E Deushi, Makoto Horowitz, Larry W Keeble, James Le Sager, Philippe O’Connor, Fiona M Oshima, Naga Tsigaridis, Konstantinos Van Noije, Twan |
author_sort |
Zanis, Prodromos |
title |
Climate change penalty and benefit on surface ozone: a global perspective based on CMIP6 earth system models |
title_short |
Climate change penalty and benefit on surface ozone: a global perspective based on CMIP6 earth system models |
title_full |
Climate change penalty and benefit on surface ozone: a global perspective based on CMIP6 earth system models |
title_fullStr |
Climate change penalty and benefit on surface ozone: a global perspective based on CMIP6 earth system models |
title_full_unstemmed |
Climate change penalty and benefit on surface ozone: a global perspective based on CMIP6 earth system models |
title_sort |
climate change penalty and benefit on surface ozone: a global perspective based on cmip6 earth system models |
publisher |
Apollo - University of Cambridge Repository |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
https://dx.doi.org/10.17863/cam.80810 https://www.repository.cam.ac.uk/handle/1810/333387 |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic Climate change Global warming |
genre_facet |
Arctic Climate change Global warming |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.17863/cam.80810 |
_version_ |
1766347983910076416 |