Delay in recovery of the Antarctic ozone hole from unexpected CFC-11 emissions
Abstract: The Antarctic ozone hole is decreasing in size but this recovery will be affected by atmospheric variability and any unexpected changes in chlorinated source gas emissions. Here, using model simulations, we show that the ozone hole will largely cease to occur by 2065 given compliance with...
Main Authors: | , , , , , , , |
---|---|
Format: | Text |
Language: | unknown |
Published: |
Apollo - University of Cambridge Repository
2019
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | https://dx.doi.org/10.17863/cam.62554 https://www.repository.cam.ac.uk/handle/1810/315447 |
id |
ftdatacite:10.17863/cam.62554 |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
spelling |
ftdatacite:10.17863/cam.62554 2023-05-15T13:41:37+02:00 Delay in recovery of the Antarctic ozone hole from unexpected CFC-11 emissions Dhomse, S. S. Feng, W. Montzka, S. A. Hossaini, R. Keeble, J. Pyle, J. A. Daniel, J. S. Chipperfield, M. P. 2019 https://dx.doi.org/10.17863/cam.62554 https://www.repository.cam.ac.uk/handle/1810/315447 unknown Apollo - University of Cambridge Repository Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/legalcode cc-by-4.0 CC-BY Article /704/106 /704/172 /704/172/169/824 article Text Article article-journal ScholarlyArticle 2019 ftdatacite https://doi.org/10.17863/cam.62554 2021-11-05T12:55:41Z Abstract: The Antarctic ozone hole is decreasing in size but this recovery will be affected by atmospheric variability and any unexpected changes in chlorinated source gas emissions. Here, using model simulations, we show that the ozone hole will largely cease to occur by 2065 given compliance with the Montreal Protocol. If the unusual meteorology of 2002 is repeated, an ozone-hole-free-year could occur as soon as the early 2020s by some metrics. The recently discovered increase in CFC-11 emissions of ~ 13 Gg yr−1 may delay recovery. So far the impact on ozone is small, but if these emissions indicate production for foam use much more CFC-11 may be leaked in the future. Assuming such production over 10 years, disappearance of the ozone hole will be delayed by a few years, although there are significant uncertainties. Continued, substantial future CFC-11 emissions of 67 Gg yr−1 would delay Antarctic ozone recovery by well over a decade. Text Antarc* Antarctic DataCite Metadata Store (German National Library of Science and Technology) Antarctic The Antarctic |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
DataCite Metadata Store (German National Library of Science and Technology) |
op_collection_id |
ftdatacite |
language |
unknown |
topic |
Article /704/106 /704/172 /704/172/169/824 article |
spellingShingle |
Article /704/106 /704/172 /704/172/169/824 article Dhomse, S. S. Feng, W. Montzka, S. A. Hossaini, R. Keeble, J. Pyle, J. A. Daniel, J. S. Chipperfield, M. P. Delay in recovery of the Antarctic ozone hole from unexpected CFC-11 emissions |
topic_facet |
Article /704/106 /704/172 /704/172/169/824 article |
description |
Abstract: The Antarctic ozone hole is decreasing in size but this recovery will be affected by atmospheric variability and any unexpected changes in chlorinated source gas emissions. Here, using model simulations, we show that the ozone hole will largely cease to occur by 2065 given compliance with the Montreal Protocol. If the unusual meteorology of 2002 is repeated, an ozone-hole-free-year could occur as soon as the early 2020s by some metrics. The recently discovered increase in CFC-11 emissions of ~ 13 Gg yr−1 may delay recovery. So far the impact on ozone is small, but if these emissions indicate production for foam use much more CFC-11 may be leaked in the future. Assuming such production over 10 years, disappearance of the ozone hole will be delayed by a few years, although there are significant uncertainties. Continued, substantial future CFC-11 emissions of 67 Gg yr−1 would delay Antarctic ozone recovery by well over a decade. |
format |
Text |
author |
Dhomse, S. S. Feng, W. Montzka, S. A. Hossaini, R. Keeble, J. Pyle, J. A. Daniel, J. S. Chipperfield, M. P. |
author_facet |
Dhomse, S. S. Feng, W. Montzka, S. A. Hossaini, R. Keeble, J. Pyle, J. A. Daniel, J. S. Chipperfield, M. P. |
author_sort |
Dhomse, S. S. |
title |
Delay in recovery of the Antarctic ozone hole from unexpected CFC-11 emissions |
title_short |
Delay in recovery of the Antarctic ozone hole from unexpected CFC-11 emissions |
title_full |
Delay in recovery of the Antarctic ozone hole from unexpected CFC-11 emissions |
title_fullStr |
Delay in recovery of the Antarctic ozone hole from unexpected CFC-11 emissions |
title_full_unstemmed |
Delay in recovery of the Antarctic ozone hole from unexpected CFC-11 emissions |
title_sort |
delay in recovery of the antarctic ozone hole from unexpected cfc-11 emissions |
publisher |
Apollo - University of Cambridge Repository |
publishDate |
2019 |
url |
https://dx.doi.org/10.17863/cam.62554 https://www.repository.cam.ac.uk/handle/1810/315447 |
geographic |
Antarctic The Antarctic |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic The Antarctic |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic |
op_rights |
Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/legalcode cc-by-4.0 |
op_rightsnorm |
CC-BY |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.17863/cam.62554 |
_version_ |
1766153005167542272 |