Linking warming effects on phenology, demography, and range expansion in a migratory bird population. ...

• Main Authors: Alves, José A, Gunnarsson, Tómas G, Sutherland, William J, Potts, Peter M, Gill, Jennifer A
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: Wiley 2019
• Subjects: climate change; population dynamics; species distribution; temperature; waders; Iceland; Limosa limosa
• Online Access: https://dx.doi.org/10.17863/cam.35263; https://www.repository.cam.ac.uk/handle/1810/287947

Phenological changes in response to climate change have been recorded in many taxa, but the population-level consequences of these changes are largely unknown. If phenological change influences demography, it may underpin the changes in range size and distribution that have been associated with climate change in many species. Over the last century, Icelandic black-tailed godwits (Limosa limosa islandica) have increased 10-fold in numbers, and their breeding range has expanded throughout lowland Iceland, but the environmental and demographic drivers of this expansion remain unknown. Here, we explore the potential for climate-driven shifts in phenology to influence demography and range expansion. In warmer springs, Icelandic black-tailed godwits lay their clutches earlier, resulting in advances in hatching dates in those years. Early hatching is beneficial as population-wide tracking of marked individuals shows that chick recruitment to the adult population is greater for early hatched individuals. Throughout ...