Spatio-temporal modelling of extreme temperature events on the Greenland ice sheet ...

• Main Author: Clarkson, Daniel
• Format: Text
• Language: English
• Published: Lancaster University 2023
• Subjects: Extreme value analysis; Gaussian process; Mixture modelling; Greenland Ice Sheet; Greenland; Ice Sheet
• Online Access: https://dx.doi.org/10.17635/lancaster/thesis/1992; http://www.research.lancs.ac.uk/portal/en/publications/spatiotemporal-modelling-of-extreme-temperature-events-on-the-greenland-ice-sheet(cc64595d-913d-4bdb-891f-8dc907981335).html

The Greenland ice sheet has experienced significant melt over the past six decades, with rare extreme melt events covering large areas of the ice sheet. Melt events are typically analysed using summary statistics from satellite data, but the nature and characteristics of the events themselves are less frequently analysed. In this thesis, we take MODIS satellite temperature data and develop a series of models to build a detailed understanding of temperature, melt, and extreme temperature events on the ice sheet. A core aim of the modelling work is to create and use models that are statistically robust that also strongly consider the scientific context of the variables and processes being modelled. We first develop a statistical model for temperatures at a single location on the ice sheet. We define a novel method of identifying melt observations using a Gaussian mixture model to capture the distribution of temperatures across the ice sheet in a consistent format. In the next chapter, we begin to examine the ...