Downscaling Changing Coastlines in a Changing Climate: The Hybrid Approach ...

• Main Authors: Murray, A.B., Wood, J., Méndez, F.J., Moore, L.J., Antolínez, J.A.A., Farley, G.
• Format: Text
• Language: English
• Published: Blackwell Publishing Ltd 2018
• Subjects: North Atlantic
• Online Access: https://dx.doi.org/10.17615/f2g0-pb35; https://cdr.lib.unc.edu/concern/articles/fj236b521

Shifts in the frequency of typical meteorological patterns in an ocean basin, over interannual to decadal time scales, cause shifts in the patterns of wave generation. Therefore, ocean basin-scale climate shifts produce shifts in the wave climates affecting the coastlines of the basin. We present a hybrid methodology for downscaling observed (or predicted) climate shifts into local nearshore wave climates and then into the associated coastline responses. A series of statistical analyses translate observed (or predicted) distributions of meteorological states into the deep water wave climate affecting a coastal region and dynamical modeling combined with statistical analyses transform the deep water wave climate into the nearshore wave climate affecting a particular coastline. Finally, dynamical modeling of coastline evolution hindcasts (or predicts) how coastline shapes respond to climate shifts. As a case study, we downscale from meteorological hindcast in the North Atlantic basin since 1870 to the ...