Effects of Tropical Sea Surface Temperature Variability on Northern Hemisphere Tropical Cyclone Genesis ...

• Main Authors: Mei, W., Xie, S.-P., Li, S.
• Format: Text
• Language: English
• Published: American Meteorological Society 2022
• Subjects: Indian; Pacific; North Atlantic
• Online Access: https://dx.doi.org/10.17615/9b9d-jj44; https://cdr.lib.unc.edu/concern/articles/8g84mx44c

This study quantifies the contributions of tropical sea surface temperature (SST) variations during the boreal warm season to the interannual-to-decadal variability in tropical cyclone genesis frequency (TCGF) over the Northern Hemisphere ocean basins. The first seven leading modes of tropical SST variability are found to affect basinwide TCGF in one or more basins, and are related to canonical El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), global warming (GW), the Pacific meridional mode (PMM), Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO), Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO), and the Atlantic meridional mode (AMM). These modes account for approximately 58%, 50%, and 56% of the variance in basinwide TCGF during 1969–2018 over the North Atlantic (NA), northeast Pacific (NEP), and northwest Pacific (NWP) Oceans, respectively. The SST effect is weak on TCGF variability in the north Indian Ocean. The SST modes dominating TCGF variability differ among the basins: ENSO, the AMO, AMM, and GW are dominant for the NA; ENSO and the ...