Projected sea surface temperatures over the 21st century: Changes in the mean, variability and extremes for large marine ecosystem regions of Northern Oceans ...

• Main Authors: Thomas, A.C., Mills, K.E., Friedland, K.D., Alexander, M.A., Pershing, A.J., Scott, J.D., Nye, J.A.
• Format: Text
• Language: English
• Published: University of California Press 2018
• Subjects: Arctic; Arctic Ocean
• Online Access: https://dx.doi.org/10.17615/3myh-s005; https://cdr.lib.unc.edu/concern/articles/ns064g69k

Global climate models were used to assess changes in the mean, variability and extreme sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in northern oceans with a focus on large marine ecosystems (LMEs) adjacent to North America, Europe, and the Arctic Ocean. Results were obtained from 26 models in the Community Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) archive and 30 simulations from the National Center for Atmospheric Research Large Ensemble Community Project (CESM-LENS). All of the simulations used the observed greenhouse gas concentrations for 1976–2005 and the RCP8.5 “business as usual” scenario for greenhouse gases through the remainder of the 21st century. In general, differences between models are substantially larger than among the simulations in the CESM-LENS, indicating that the SST changes are more strongly affected by model formulation than internal climate variability. The annual SST trends over 1976–2099 in the 18 LMEs examined here are all positive ranging from 0.05 to 0.5°C decade–1. SST changes by the ...