Dynamical stability indicator based on autoregressive moving-average models: Critical transitions and the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation ...
A statistical indicator for dynamic stability, known as the Υ indicator, is used to gauge the stability and, hence, detect approaching tipping points of simulation data from a reduced five-box model of the North Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) exposed to a time-dependent hosing fu...
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Freie Universität Berlin
2022
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ftdatacite:10.17169/refubium-38710 2023-06-11T04:12:17+02:00 Dynamical stability indicator based on autoregressive moving-average models: Critical transitions and the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation ... Rodal, Marie Krumscheid, Sebastian Madan, Gaurav LaCasce, Joseph Henry Vercauteren, Nikki 2022 https://dx.doi.org/10.17169/refubium-38710 https://refubium.fu-berlin.de/handle/fub188/38994 unknown Freie Universität Berlin https://doi.org/10.1063/5.0089694 https://dx.doi.org/10.1063/5.0089694 https://doi.org/10.1063/5.0089694 Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/legalcode cc-by-4.0 Oceans Data science Computer simulation Nonstationary processes Time series analysis Auto regressive moving average 500 Naturwissenschaften und Mathematik510 Mathematik510 Mathematik Wissenschaftlicher Artikel article-journal Text ScholarlyArticle 2022 ftdatacite https://doi.org/10.17169/refubium-3871010.1063/5.0089694 2023-05-02T10:29:47Z A statistical indicator for dynamic stability, known as the Υ indicator, is used to gauge the stability and, hence, detect approaching tipping points of simulation data from a reduced five-box model of the North Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) exposed to a time-dependent hosing function. The hosing function simulates the influx of fresh water due to the melting of the Greenland ice sheet and increased precipitation in the North Atlantic. The Υ indicator is designed to detect changes in the memory properties of the dynamics and is based on fitting auto-regressive moving-average models in a sliding window approach to time series data. An increase in memory properties is interpreted as a sign of dynamical instability. The performance of the indicator is tested on time series subject to different types of tipping, namely, bifurcation-induced, noise-induced, and rate-induced tipping. The numerical analysis shows that the indicator indeed responds to the different types of induced instabilities. ... Text Greenland Ice Sheet North Atlantic DataCite Metadata Store (German National Library of Science and Technology) Greenland |
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Open Polar |
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DataCite Metadata Store (German National Library of Science and Technology) |
op_collection_id |
ftdatacite |
language |
unknown |
topic |
Oceans Data science Computer simulation Nonstationary processes Time series analysis Auto regressive moving average 500 Naturwissenschaften und Mathematik510 Mathematik510 Mathematik |
spellingShingle |
Oceans Data science Computer simulation Nonstationary processes Time series analysis Auto regressive moving average 500 Naturwissenschaften und Mathematik510 Mathematik510 Mathematik Rodal, Marie Krumscheid, Sebastian Madan, Gaurav LaCasce, Joseph Henry Vercauteren, Nikki Dynamical stability indicator based on autoregressive moving-average models: Critical transitions and the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation ... |
topic_facet |
Oceans Data science Computer simulation Nonstationary processes Time series analysis Auto regressive moving average 500 Naturwissenschaften und Mathematik510 Mathematik510 Mathematik |
description |
A statistical indicator for dynamic stability, known as the Υ indicator, is used to gauge the stability and, hence, detect approaching tipping points of simulation data from a reduced five-box model of the North Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) exposed to a time-dependent hosing function. The hosing function simulates the influx of fresh water due to the melting of the Greenland ice sheet and increased precipitation in the North Atlantic. The Υ indicator is designed to detect changes in the memory properties of the dynamics and is based on fitting auto-regressive moving-average models in a sliding window approach to time series data. An increase in memory properties is interpreted as a sign of dynamical instability. The performance of the indicator is tested on time series subject to different types of tipping, namely, bifurcation-induced, noise-induced, and rate-induced tipping. The numerical analysis shows that the indicator indeed responds to the different types of induced instabilities. ... |
format |
Text |
author |
Rodal, Marie Krumscheid, Sebastian Madan, Gaurav LaCasce, Joseph Henry Vercauteren, Nikki |
author_facet |
Rodal, Marie Krumscheid, Sebastian Madan, Gaurav LaCasce, Joseph Henry Vercauteren, Nikki |
author_sort |
Rodal, Marie |
title |
Dynamical stability indicator based on autoregressive moving-average models: Critical transitions and the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation ... |
title_short |
Dynamical stability indicator based on autoregressive moving-average models: Critical transitions and the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation ... |
title_full |
Dynamical stability indicator based on autoregressive moving-average models: Critical transitions and the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation ... |
title_fullStr |
Dynamical stability indicator based on autoregressive moving-average models: Critical transitions and the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation ... |
title_full_unstemmed |
Dynamical stability indicator based on autoregressive moving-average models: Critical transitions and the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation ... |
title_sort |
dynamical stability indicator based on autoregressive moving-average models: critical transitions and the atlantic meridional overturning circulation ... |
publisher |
Freie Universität Berlin |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
https://dx.doi.org/10.17169/refubium-38710 https://refubium.fu-berlin.de/handle/fub188/38994 |
geographic |
Greenland |
geographic_facet |
Greenland |
genre |
Greenland Ice Sheet North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
Greenland Ice Sheet North Atlantic |
op_relation |
https://doi.org/10.1063/5.0089694 https://dx.doi.org/10.1063/5.0089694 https://doi.org/10.1063/5.0089694 |
op_rights |
Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/legalcode cc-by-4.0 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.17169/refubium-3871010.1063/5.0089694 |
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1768388023201824768 |