Dynamical stability indicator based on autoregressive moving-average models: Critical transitions and the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation ...

• Main Authors: Rodal, Marie, Krumscheid, Sebastian, Madan, Gaurav, LaCasce, Joseph Henry, Vercauteren, Nikki
• Format: Text
• Language: unknown
• Published: Freie Universität Berlin 2022
• Subjects: Oceans; Data science; Computer simulation; Nonstationary processes; Time series analysis; Auto regressive moving average; 500 Naturwissenschaften und Mathematik510 Mathematik510 Mathematik; Greenland; Ice Sheet; North Atlantic
• Online Access: https://dx.doi.org/10.17169/refubium-38710; https://refubium.fu-berlin.de/handle/fub188/38994

A statistical indicator for dynamic stability, known as the Υ indicator, is used to gauge the stability and, hence, detect approaching tipping points of simulation data from a reduced five-box model of the North Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) exposed to a time-dependent hosing function. The hosing function simulates the influx of fresh water due to the melting of the Greenland ice sheet and increased precipitation in the North Atlantic. The Υ indicator is designed to detect changes in the memory properties of the dynamics and is based on fitting auto-regressive moving-average models in a sliding window approach to time series data. An increase in memory properties is interpreted as a sign of dynamical instability. The performance of the indicator is tested on time series subject to different types of tipping, namely, bifurcation-induced, noise-induced, and rate-induced tipping. The numerical analysis shows that the indicator indeed responds to the different types of induced instabilities. ...