Dynamical stability indicator based on autoregressive moving-average models: Critical transitions and the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation ...
A statistical indicator for dynamic stability, known as the Υ indicator, is used to gauge the stability and, hence, detect approaching tipping points of simulation data from a reduced five-box model of the North Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) exposed to a time-dependent hosing fu...
| Main Authors: | , , , , |
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| Format: | Text |
| Language: | unknown |
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Freie Universität Berlin
2022
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| Online Access: | https://dx.doi.org/10.17169/refubium-38710 https://refubium.fu-berlin.de/handle/fub188/38994 |
| Summary: | A statistical indicator for dynamic stability, known as the Υ indicator, is used to gauge the stability and, hence, detect approaching tipping points of simulation data from a reduced five-box model of the North Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) exposed to a time-dependent hosing function. The hosing function simulates the influx of fresh water due to the melting of the Greenland ice sheet and increased precipitation in the North Atlantic. The Υ indicator is designed to detect changes in the memory properties of the dynamics and is based on fitting auto-regressive moving-average models in a sliding window approach to time series data. An increase in memory properties is interpreted as a sign of dynamical instability. The performance of the indicator is tested on time series subject to different types of tipping, namely, bifurcation-induced, noise-induced, and rate-induced tipping. The numerical analysis shows that the indicator indeed responds to the different types of induced instabilities. ... |
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