Global declines in coral reef calcium carbonate production under ocean acidification and warming
Ocean warming and acidification threaten the future growth of coral reefs. This is because the calcifying coral reef taxa that construct the calcium carbonate frameworks and cement the reef together are highly sensitive to ocean warming and acidification. However, the global-scale effects of ocean w...
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ftdatacite:10.17169/refubium-31471 2023-05-15T17:51:48+02:00 Global declines in coral reef calcium carbonate production under ocean acidification and warming Cornwall, Christopher E. Comeau, Steeve Kornder, Niklas A. Perry, Chris T. Hooidonk, Ruben Van DeCarlo, Thomas M. Pratchett, Morgan S. Anderson, Kristen D. Browne, Nicola D'Olivo, Juan P. 2021 https://dx.doi.org/10.17169/refubium-31471 https://refubium.fu-berlin.de/handle/fub188/31740 unknown Freie Universität Berlin https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2015265118 https://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2015265118 https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2015265118 Creative Commons Attribution Non Commercial No Derivatives 4.0 International https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/legalcode cc-by-nc-nd-4.0 CC-BY-NC-ND carbonate production climate change corals calcification 500 Naturwissenschaften und Mathematik550 Geowissenschaften, Geologie550 Geowissenschaften Text article-journal Wissenschaftlicher Artikel ScholarlyArticle 2021 ftdatacite https://doi.org/10.17169/refubium-31471 https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2015265118 2021-11-05T12:55:41Z Ocean warming and acidification threaten the future growth of coral reefs. This is because the calcifying coral reef taxa that construct the calcium carbonate frameworks and cement the reef together are highly sensitive to ocean warming and acidification. However, the global-scale effects of ocean warming and acidification on rates of coral reef net carbonate production remain poorly constrained despite a wealth of studies assessing their effects on the calcification of individual organisms. Here, we present global estimates of projected future changes in coral reef net carbonate production under ocean warming and acidification. We apply a meta-analysis of responses of coral reef taxa calcification and bioerosion rates to predicted changes in coral cover driven by climate change to estimate the net carbonate production rates of 183 reefs worldwide by 2050 and 2100. We forecast mean global reef net carbonate production under representative concentration pathways (RCP) 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5 will decline by 76, 149, and 156%, respectively, by 2100. While 63% of reefs are projected to continue to accrete by 2100 under RCP2.6, 94% will be eroding by 2050 under RCP8.5, and no reefs will continue to accrete at rates matching projected sea level rise under RCP4.5 or 8.5 by 2100. Projected reduced coral cover due to bleaching events predominately drives these declines rather than the direct physiological impacts of ocean warming and acidification on calcification or bioerosion. Presently degraded reefs were also more sensitive in our analysis. These findings highlight the low likelihood that the world’s coral reefs will maintain their functional roles without near-term stabilization of atmospheric CO2 emissions. Text Ocean acidification DataCite Metadata Store (German National Library of Science and Technology) |
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carbonate production climate change corals calcification 500 Naturwissenschaften und Mathematik550 Geowissenschaften, Geologie550 Geowissenschaften |
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carbonate production climate change corals calcification 500 Naturwissenschaften und Mathematik550 Geowissenschaften, Geologie550 Geowissenschaften Cornwall, Christopher E. Comeau, Steeve Kornder, Niklas A. Perry, Chris T. Hooidonk, Ruben Van DeCarlo, Thomas M. Pratchett, Morgan S. Anderson, Kristen D. Browne, Nicola D'Olivo, Juan P. Global declines in coral reef calcium carbonate production under ocean acidification and warming |
topic_facet |
carbonate production climate change corals calcification 500 Naturwissenschaften und Mathematik550 Geowissenschaften, Geologie550 Geowissenschaften |
description |
Ocean warming and acidification threaten the future growth of coral reefs. This is because the calcifying coral reef taxa that construct the calcium carbonate frameworks and cement the reef together are highly sensitive to ocean warming and acidification. However, the global-scale effects of ocean warming and acidification on rates of coral reef net carbonate production remain poorly constrained despite a wealth of studies assessing their effects on the calcification of individual organisms. Here, we present global estimates of projected future changes in coral reef net carbonate production under ocean warming and acidification. We apply a meta-analysis of responses of coral reef taxa calcification and bioerosion rates to predicted changes in coral cover driven by climate change to estimate the net carbonate production rates of 183 reefs worldwide by 2050 and 2100. We forecast mean global reef net carbonate production under representative concentration pathways (RCP) 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5 will decline by 76, 149, and 156%, respectively, by 2100. While 63% of reefs are projected to continue to accrete by 2100 under RCP2.6, 94% will be eroding by 2050 under RCP8.5, and no reefs will continue to accrete at rates matching projected sea level rise under RCP4.5 or 8.5 by 2100. Projected reduced coral cover due to bleaching events predominately drives these declines rather than the direct physiological impacts of ocean warming and acidification on calcification or bioerosion. Presently degraded reefs were also more sensitive in our analysis. These findings highlight the low likelihood that the world’s coral reefs will maintain their functional roles without near-term stabilization of atmospheric CO2 emissions. |
format |
Text |
author |
Cornwall, Christopher E. Comeau, Steeve Kornder, Niklas A. Perry, Chris T. Hooidonk, Ruben Van DeCarlo, Thomas M. Pratchett, Morgan S. Anderson, Kristen D. Browne, Nicola D'Olivo, Juan P. |
author_facet |
Cornwall, Christopher E. Comeau, Steeve Kornder, Niklas A. Perry, Chris T. Hooidonk, Ruben Van DeCarlo, Thomas M. Pratchett, Morgan S. Anderson, Kristen D. Browne, Nicola D'Olivo, Juan P. |
author_sort |
Cornwall, Christopher E. |
title |
Global declines in coral reef calcium carbonate production under ocean acidification and warming |
title_short |
Global declines in coral reef calcium carbonate production under ocean acidification and warming |
title_full |
Global declines in coral reef calcium carbonate production under ocean acidification and warming |
title_fullStr |
Global declines in coral reef calcium carbonate production under ocean acidification and warming |
title_full_unstemmed |
Global declines in coral reef calcium carbonate production under ocean acidification and warming |
title_sort |
global declines in coral reef calcium carbonate production under ocean acidification and warming |
publisher |
Freie Universität Berlin |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
https://dx.doi.org/10.17169/refubium-31471 https://refubium.fu-berlin.de/handle/fub188/31740 |
genre |
Ocean acidification |
genre_facet |
Ocean acidification |
op_relation |
https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2015265118 https://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2015265118 https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2015265118 |
op_rights |
Creative Commons Attribution Non Commercial No Derivatives 4.0 International https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/legalcode cc-by-nc-nd-4.0 |
op_rightsnorm |
CC-BY-NC-ND |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.17169/refubium-31471 https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2015265118 |
_version_ |
1766159069259759616 |