Evaluating decadal predictions of northern hemispheric cyclone frequencies
Mid-latitudinal cyclones are a key factor for understanding regional anomalies in primary meteorological parameters such as temperature or precipitation. Extreme cyclones can produce notable impacts on human society and economy, for example, by causing enormous economic losses through wind damage. B...
Main Authors: | , , , , |
---|---|
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | unknown |
Published: |
Freie Universität Berlin
2014
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | https://dx.doi.org/10.17169/refubium-21017 https://refubium.fu-berlin.de/handle/fub188/16836 |
id |
ftdatacite:10.17169/refubium-21017 |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
spelling |
ftdatacite:10.17169/refubium-21017 2023-05-15T17:31:06+02:00 Evaluating decadal predictions of northern hemispheric cyclone frequencies Kruschke, Tim Rust, Henning W. Kadow, Christopher Leckebusch, Gregor C. Ulbrich, Uwe 2014 https://dx.doi.org/10.17169/refubium-21017 https://refubium.fu-berlin.de/handle/fub188/16836 unknown Freie Universität Berlin http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 CC-BY climate modelling decadal predictions probabilistic forecasts verification extra-tropical cyclones MiKlip 500 Naturwissenschaften und Mathematik550 Geowissenschaften, Geologie551 Geologie, Hydrologie, Meteorologie CreativeWork article 2014 ftdatacite https://doi.org/10.17169/refubium-21017 2021-11-05T12:55:41Z Mid-latitudinal cyclones are a key factor for understanding regional anomalies in primary meteorological parameters such as temperature or precipitation. Extreme cyclones can produce notable impacts on human society and economy, for example, by causing enormous economic losses through wind damage. Based on 41 annually initialised (1961–2001) hindcast ensembles, this study evaluates the ability of a single-model decadal forecast system (MPI-ESM-LR) to provide skilful probabilistic three-category forecasts (enhanced, normal or decreased) of winter (ONDJFM) extra-tropical cyclone frequency over the Northern Hemisphere with lead times from 1 yr up to a decade. It is shown that these predictions exhibit some significant skill, mainly for lead times of 2–5 yr, especially over the North Atlantic and Pacific. Skill for intense cyclones is generally higher than for all detected systems. A comparison of decadal hindcasts from two different initialisation techniques indicates that initialising from reanalysis fields yields slightly better results for the first forecast winter (month 10–15), while initialisation based on an assimilation experiment provides better skill for lead times between 2 and 5 yr. The reasons and mechanisms behind this predictive skill are subject to future work. Preliminary analyses suggest a strong relationship of the model’s skill over the North Atlantic with the ability to predict upper ocean temperatures modulating lower troposphere baroclinicity for the respective area and time scales. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic DataCite Metadata Store (German National Library of Science and Technology) Pacific |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
DataCite Metadata Store (German National Library of Science and Technology) |
op_collection_id |
ftdatacite |
language |
unknown |
topic |
climate modelling decadal predictions probabilistic forecasts verification extra-tropical cyclones MiKlip 500 Naturwissenschaften und Mathematik550 Geowissenschaften, Geologie551 Geologie, Hydrologie, Meteorologie |
spellingShingle |
climate modelling decadal predictions probabilistic forecasts verification extra-tropical cyclones MiKlip 500 Naturwissenschaften und Mathematik550 Geowissenschaften, Geologie551 Geologie, Hydrologie, Meteorologie Kruschke, Tim Rust, Henning W. Kadow, Christopher Leckebusch, Gregor C. Ulbrich, Uwe Evaluating decadal predictions of northern hemispheric cyclone frequencies |
topic_facet |
climate modelling decadal predictions probabilistic forecasts verification extra-tropical cyclones MiKlip 500 Naturwissenschaften und Mathematik550 Geowissenschaften, Geologie551 Geologie, Hydrologie, Meteorologie |
description |
Mid-latitudinal cyclones are a key factor for understanding regional anomalies in primary meteorological parameters such as temperature or precipitation. Extreme cyclones can produce notable impacts on human society and economy, for example, by causing enormous economic losses through wind damage. Based on 41 annually initialised (1961–2001) hindcast ensembles, this study evaluates the ability of a single-model decadal forecast system (MPI-ESM-LR) to provide skilful probabilistic three-category forecasts (enhanced, normal or decreased) of winter (ONDJFM) extra-tropical cyclone frequency over the Northern Hemisphere with lead times from 1 yr up to a decade. It is shown that these predictions exhibit some significant skill, mainly for lead times of 2–5 yr, especially over the North Atlantic and Pacific. Skill for intense cyclones is generally higher than for all detected systems. A comparison of decadal hindcasts from two different initialisation techniques indicates that initialising from reanalysis fields yields slightly better results for the first forecast winter (month 10–15), while initialisation based on an assimilation experiment provides better skill for lead times between 2 and 5 yr. The reasons and mechanisms behind this predictive skill are subject to future work. Preliminary analyses suggest a strong relationship of the model’s skill over the North Atlantic with the ability to predict upper ocean temperatures modulating lower troposphere baroclinicity for the respective area and time scales. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Kruschke, Tim Rust, Henning W. Kadow, Christopher Leckebusch, Gregor C. Ulbrich, Uwe |
author_facet |
Kruschke, Tim Rust, Henning W. Kadow, Christopher Leckebusch, Gregor C. Ulbrich, Uwe |
author_sort |
Kruschke, Tim |
title |
Evaluating decadal predictions of northern hemispheric cyclone frequencies |
title_short |
Evaluating decadal predictions of northern hemispheric cyclone frequencies |
title_full |
Evaluating decadal predictions of northern hemispheric cyclone frequencies |
title_fullStr |
Evaluating decadal predictions of northern hemispheric cyclone frequencies |
title_full_unstemmed |
Evaluating decadal predictions of northern hemispheric cyclone frequencies |
title_sort |
evaluating decadal predictions of northern hemispheric cyclone frequencies |
publisher |
Freie Universität Berlin |
publishDate |
2014 |
url |
https://dx.doi.org/10.17169/refubium-21017 https://refubium.fu-berlin.de/handle/fub188/16836 |
geographic |
Pacific |
geographic_facet |
Pacific |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_rights |
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 |
op_rightsnorm |
CC-BY |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.17169/refubium-21017 |
_version_ |
1766128423810367488 |