Prediction of acute care bed requirements for scattered area populations ...

• Main Author: O’Brien, Eoin
• Format: Text
• Language: English
• Published: University of British Columbia 2010
• Subjects: Newfoundland
• Online Access: https://dx.doi.org/10.14288/1.0094933; https://doi.library.ubc.ca/10.14288/1.0094933

In supporting the projection of bed requirements for Newfoundland to 1986, an extensive literature review was conducted to identify small area population projection methods and bed prediction models. A bed prediction model was developed for this study. For each health region, projected morbidity for diagnostic (bed) clusters was calculated by: projecting the age-sex population; holding 1976 age-sex cluster morbidity patterns and length of stay constant; projecting the base and flow referral morbidity patterns of four health regions and finally the projected morbidity patterns were combined and translated into beds and adjusted for occupancy. The population projection method was the Short Ratio. The diagnostic clusters were medical-surgical, obstetrical, pediatrics and psychiatry. The prediction of beds utilizing this model was compared with a bed to population rate method. It was demonstrated that bed requirements do change in respect of age-sex population changes. The requirements are stated for each ...