Analysis of North Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Intensify Change Using Data Mining ...

• Main Author: Tang, Jiang
• Format: Thesis
• Language: English
• Published: George Mason University 2010
• Subjects: Data mining; Tropical cyclone intensity; Apriori algorithm; SHIPS; Rapid intensification; North Atlantic
• Online Access: https://dx.doi.org/10.13021/mars/6970; https://mars.gmu.edu/handle/1920/5832

Tropical cyclones (TC), especially when their intensity reaches hurricane scale, can become a costly natural hazard. Accurate prediction of tropical cyclone intensity is very difficult because of inadequate observations on TC structures, poor understanding of physical processes, coarse model resolution and inaccurate initial conditions, etc. This study aims to tackle two factors that account for the underperformance of current TC intensity forecasts: (1) inadequate observations of TC structures, and (2) deficient understanding of the underlying physical processes governing TC intensification. To tackle the problem of inadequate observations of TC structures, efforts have been made to extract vertical and horizontal structural parameters of latent heat release from Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Precipitation Radar (PR) data products. A case study of Hurricane Isabel (2003) was conducted first to explore the feasibility of using the 3D TC structure information in predicting TC intensification. ...