Chemistry–Climate Model Simulations of Twenty-First Century Stratospheric Climate and Circulation Changes ...

• Main Authors: BUTCHART, NEAL, CIONNI, I., EYRING, V., SHEPHERD, T. G., LI, FENG, Et Al
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: AMS 2010
• Subjects: Antarctic; The Antarctic; Austin; Waugh; Pawson; Cordero; Sassi; Antarc*
• Online Access: https://dx.doi.org/10.13016/m2wiei-0x2h; https://mdsoar.org/handle/11603/26733

Authors:- NEAL BUTCHART , I. CIONNI, V. EYRING, T. G. SHEPHERD, D. W. WAUGH, H. AKIYOSHI, J. AUSTIN, C. BRUHL, M. P. CHIPPERFIELD , E. CORDERO, M. DAMERIS , R. DECKERT, S. DHOMSE, S. M. FRITH, R. R. GARCIA, A. GETTELMAN, M. A. GIORGETTA, D. E. KINNISON, F. LI, E. MANCINI, C. MCLANDRESS , S. PAWSON, G. PITARI, D. A. PLUMMER, E. ROZANOV, F. SASSI, J. F. SCINOCCA, K. SHIBATA, B. STEIL, AND W. TIAN ... : The response of stratospheric climate and circulation to increasing amounts of greenhouse gases (GHGs) and ozone recovery in the twenty-first century is analyzed in simulations of 11 chemistry–climate models using near-identical forcings and experimental setup. In addition to an overall global cooling of the stratosphere in the simulations (0.59 ± 0.07 K decade⁻¹ at 10 hPa), ozone recovery causes a warming of the Southern Hemisphere polar lower stratosphere in summer with enhanced cooling above. The rate of warming correlates with the rate of ozone recovery projected by the models and, on average, changes from 0.8 to 0.48 K decade⁻¹ at 100 hPa as the rate of recovery declines from the first to the second half of the century. In the winter northern polar lower stratosphere the increased radiative cooling from the growing abundance of GHGs is, in most models, balanced by adiabatic warming from stronger polar downwelling. In the Antarctic lower stratosphere the models simulate an increase in low temperature ...