Analyzing Disaster Risks and Plans: An Avian Flu Example ...
Narrative approaches to analyzing risks seek to identify the variables critical to creating and controlling a risk, then to instantiate them in terms of coherent themes (e.g., organizational failure, strategic surprise). Computational approaches to analyzing risks seek to identify the same critical...
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Carnegie Mellon University
2006
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ftdatacite:10.1184/r1/6570995.v1 2023-08-27T04:08:34+02:00 Analyzing Disaster Risks and Plans: An Avian Flu Example ... Fischhoff, Baruch Wändi Bruine De Bruin Güvenç, Ümit Caruso, Denise Brilliant, Larry 2006 https://dx.doi.org/10.1184/r1/6570995.v1 https://kilthub.cmu.edu/articles/Analyzing_Disaster_Risks_and_Plans_An_Avian_Flu_Example/6570995/1 unknown Carnegie Mellon University https://dx.doi.org/10.1184/r1/6570995 In Copyright http://rightsstatements.org/vocab/InC/1.0/ 170202 Decision Making FOS Psychology Text article-journal Journal contribution ScholarlyArticle 2006 ftdatacite https://doi.org/10.1184/r1/6570995.v110.1184/r1/6570995 2023-08-07T14:24:23Z Narrative approaches to analyzing risks seek to identify the variables critical to creating and controlling a risk, then to instantiate them in terms of coherent themes (e.g., organizational failure, strategic surprise). Computational approaches to analyzing risks seek to identify the same critical variables, then to instantiate them in terms of their probability. Disaster risk analysis faces complex, novel processes that strain the capabilities of both approaches. We propose an approach that integrates elements of each, relying on what we call structured scenarios and computable models. It is illustrated by framing the analysis of plans for a possible avian flu pandemic. ... Other Non-Article Part of Journal/Newspaper Avian flu DataCite Metadata Store (German National Library of Science and Technology) |
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170202 Decision Making FOS Psychology |
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170202 Decision Making FOS Psychology Fischhoff, Baruch Wändi Bruine De Bruin Güvenç, Ümit Caruso, Denise Brilliant, Larry Analyzing Disaster Risks and Plans: An Avian Flu Example ... |
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170202 Decision Making FOS Psychology |
description |
Narrative approaches to analyzing risks seek to identify the variables critical to creating and controlling a risk, then to instantiate them in terms of coherent themes (e.g., organizational failure, strategic surprise). Computational approaches to analyzing risks seek to identify the same critical variables, then to instantiate them in terms of their probability. Disaster risk analysis faces complex, novel processes that strain the capabilities of both approaches. We propose an approach that integrates elements of each, relying on what we call structured scenarios and computable models. It is illustrated by framing the analysis of plans for a possible avian flu pandemic. ... |
format |
Other Non-Article Part of Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Fischhoff, Baruch Wändi Bruine De Bruin Güvenç, Ümit Caruso, Denise Brilliant, Larry |
author_facet |
Fischhoff, Baruch Wändi Bruine De Bruin Güvenç, Ümit Caruso, Denise Brilliant, Larry |
author_sort |
Fischhoff, Baruch |
title |
Analyzing Disaster Risks and Plans: An Avian Flu Example ... |
title_short |
Analyzing Disaster Risks and Plans: An Avian Flu Example ... |
title_full |
Analyzing Disaster Risks and Plans: An Avian Flu Example ... |
title_fullStr |
Analyzing Disaster Risks and Plans: An Avian Flu Example ... |
title_full_unstemmed |
Analyzing Disaster Risks and Plans: An Avian Flu Example ... |
title_sort |
analyzing disaster risks and plans: an avian flu example ... |
publisher |
Carnegie Mellon University |
publishDate |
2006 |
url |
https://dx.doi.org/10.1184/r1/6570995.v1 https://kilthub.cmu.edu/articles/Analyzing_Disaster_Risks_and_Plans_An_Avian_Flu_Example/6570995/1 |
genre |
Avian flu |
genre_facet |
Avian flu |
op_relation |
https://dx.doi.org/10.1184/r1/6570995 |
op_rights |
In Copyright http://rightsstatements.org/vocab/InC/1.0/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1184/r1/6570995.v110.1184/r1/6570995 |
_version_ |
1775349397318533120 |