Estimating Future Costs for Infrastructure in the Proposed Canadian Northern Corridor at Risk From Climate Change ...

• Main Authors: Debortoli, Nathan S., Pearce, Tristan, Ford, James D.
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: The School of Public Policy Publications 2023
• Subjects: permafrost
• Online Access: https://dx.doi.org/10.11575/sppp.v16i1.74925; https://journalhosting.ucalgary.ca/index.php/sppp/article/view/74925

This paper reviews current climate change projections for northern Canada and considers what these mean for infrastructure development in the proposed Canadian Northern Corridor (CNC). We focus on chokepoints along the corridor’s notional route and estimate future costs of infrastructure along the chokepoints. We draw upon climate change projections at the end of the century (2100) using information from several climate variables sourced on the CMIP6 and CMIP5 reports. Climate variables include means and extreme values for temperature, precipitation, wind and their indirect impacts on physical features: permafrost, freezing rain and wildfires. In terms of infrastructure costs, we investigate investment costs and the useful life of nine sectors within transportation, energy and buildings infrastructures. The findings of our analysis show that mean temperatures within the CNC area could increase by 10.9oC, and precipitation by 45 per cent by 2100. Climate change could create chokepoints along the CNC route, ... : The School of Public Policy Publications, Vol. 16 No. 1 (2023) ...