Climate-Change Refugia for the Bubblegum Coral Paragorgia arborea in the Northwest Atlantic
The large, habitat-forming bubblegum coral, Paragorgia arborea, is a vulnerable marine ecosystem indicator with an antitropical distribution. Dense aggregations of the species have been protected from bottom-contact fishing in the Scotian Shelf bioregion off Nova Scotia, Canada in the northwest Atla...
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ftdans:oai:easy.dans.knaw.nl:easy-dataset:256590 2023-07-02T03:33:08+02:00 Climate-Change Refugia for the Bubblegum Coral Paragorgia arborea in the Northwest Atlantic Lirette, C (via Mendeley Data) 2022-09-12T19:34:29.041Z http://nbn-resolving.org/urn:nbn:nl:ui:13-z6-xag2 https://easy.dans.knaw.nl/ui/datasets/id/easy-dataset:256590 unknown 1 bzpzzw9tdc http://nbn-resolving.org/urn:nbn:nl:ui:13-z6-xag2 doi:10.17632/bzpzzw9tdc.1 https://easy.dans.knaw.nl/ui/datasets/id/easy-dataset:256590 OPEN_ACCESS: The data are archived in Easy, they are accessible elsewhere through the DOI https://dans.knaw.nl/en/about/organisation-and-policy/legal-information/DANSLicence.pdf Camille Lirette Interdisciplinary sciences 2022 ftdans https://doi.org/10.17632/bzpzzw9tdc.1 2023-06-13T12:50:57Z The large, habitat-forming bubblegum coral, Paragorgia arborea, is a vulnerable marine ecosystem indicator with an antitropical distribution. Dense aggregations of the species have been protected from bottom-contact fishing in the Scotian Shelf bioregion off Nova Scotia, Canada in the northwest Atlantic Ocean. Recently, basin-scale habitat suitability ensemble modeling has projected an alarming loss of 99% of suitable habitat for this species across the North Atlantic by 2100. Here, a regional reassessment of the predicted distribution of this species in the bioregion, using both machine learning (random forest) and generalized additive model (GAM) frameworks, including projection to 2046−2065, was undertaken. Extrapolation diagnostics were applied to determine the degree to which the models projected into novel covariate space (i.e., extrapolation) in order to avoid erroneous inferences. The best predictors of the species’ distribution were a suite of temporally-invariant terrain variables that identified suitable habitat along the upper continental slope. Additional predictors, projected to vary with future ocean climatologies, identified areas of the upper slope in the eastern portion of the study area that will remain within suitable ranges for P. arborea at least through to the mid-century. Additionally, 3-D Lagrangian particle tracking simulations indicated potential for both connectivity among known occurrence sites and existing protected areas, and for colonization of unsurveyed areas predicted to have suitable habitat, from locations of known occurrence. These results showed that extirpation of this iconic species from the Scotian Shelf bioregion is unlikely over the next decades. Potential climate refugia were identified and results presented in the context of protected area network design properties of representativity, connectivity, adequacy, viability and resilience.Here we provide the locations for presence and absence records for P. arborea (response data) and the interpolated environmental ... Other/Unknown Material North Atlantic Northwest Atlantic Paragorgia arborea Data Archiving and Networked Services (DANS): EASY (KNAW - Koninklijke Nederlandse Akademie van Wetenschappen) Canada Gam ENVELOPE(-57.955,-57.955,-61.923,-61.923) |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Data Archiving and Networked Services (DANS): EASY (KNAW - Koninklijke Nederlandse Akademie van Wetenschappen) |
op_collection_id |
ftdans |
language |
unknown |
topic |
Interdisciplinary sciences |
spellingShingle |
Interdisciplinary sciences Lirette, C (via Mendeley Data) Climate-Change Refugia for the Bubblegum Coral Paragorgia arborea in the Northwest Atlantic |
topic_facet |
Interdisciplinary sciences |
description |
The large, habitat-forming bubblegum coral, Paragorgia arborea, is a vulnerable marine ecosystem indicator with an antitropical distribution. Dense aggregations of the species have been protected from bottom-contact fishing in the Scotian Shelf bioregion off Nova Scotia, Canada in the northwest Atlantic Ocean. Recently, basin-scale habitat suitability ensemble modeling has projected an alarming loss of 99% of suitable habitat for this species across the North Atlantic by 2100. Here, a regional reassessment of the predicted distribution of this species in the bioregion, using both machine learning (random forest) and generalized additive model (GAM) frameworks, including projection to 2046−2065, was undertaken. Extrapolation diagnostics were applied to determine the degree to which the models projected into novel covariate space (i.e., extrapolation) in order to avoid erroneous inferences. The best predictors of the species’ distribution were a suite of temporally-invariant terrain variables that identified suitable habitat along the upper continental slope. Additional predictors, projected to vary with future ocean climatologies, identified areas of the upper slope in the eastern portion of the study area that will remain within suitable ranges for P. arborea at least through to the mid-century. Additionally, 3-D Lagrangian particle tracking simulations indicated potential for both connectivity among known occurrence sites and existing protected areas, and for colonization of unsurveyed areas predicted to have suitable habitat, from locations of known occurrence. These results showed that extirpation of this iconic species from the Scotian Shelf bioregion is unlikely over the next decades. Potential climate refugia were identified and results presented in the context of protected area network design properties of representativity, connectivity, adequacy, viability and resilience.Here we provide the locations for presence and absence records for P. arborea (response data) and the interpolated environmental ... |
author |
Lirette, C (via Mendeley Data) |
author_facet |
Lirette, C (via Mendeley Data) |
author_sort |
Lirette, C (via Mendeley Data) |
title |
Climate-Change Refugia for the Bubblegum Coral Paragorgia arborea in the Northwest Atlantic |
title_short |
Climate-Change Refugia for the Bubblegum Coral Paragorgia arborea in the Northwest Atlantic |
title_full |
Climate-Change Refugia for the Bubblegum Coral Paragorgia arborea in the Northwest Atlantic |
title_fullStr |
Climate-Change Refugia for the Bubblegum Coral Paragorgia arborea in the Northwest Atlantic |
title_full_unstemmed |
Climate-Change Refugia for the Bubblegum Coral Paragorgia arborea in the Northwest Atlantic |
title_sort |
climate-change refugia for the bubblegum coral paragorgia arborea in the northwest atlantic |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
http://nbn-resolving.org/urn:nbn:nl:ui:13-z6-xag2 https://easy.dans.knaw.nl/ui/datasets/id/easy-dataset:256590 |
long_lat |
ENVELOPE(-57.955,-57.955,-61.923,-61.923) |
geographic |
Canada Gam |
geographic_facet |
Canada Gam |
genre |
North Atlantic Northwest Atlantic Paragorgia arborea |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic Northwest Atlantic Paragorgia arborea |
op_relation |
1 bzpzzw9tdc http://nbn-resolving.org/urn:nbn:nl:ui:13-z6-xag2 doi:10.17632/bzpzzw9tdc.1 https://easy.dans.knaw.nl/ui/datasets/id/easy-dataset:256590 |
op_rights |
OPEN_ACCESS: The data are archived in Easy, they are accessible elsewhere through the DOI https://dans.knaw.nl/en/about/organisation-and-policy/legal-information/DANSLicence.pdf Camille Lirette |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.17632/bzpzzw9tdc.1 |
_version_ |
1770272966523748352 |