Attribution of European temperature variability during 1882–2010: A statistical perspective

• Main Authors: Mikšovský, J. (Jiří), Pišoft, P.
• Format: Conference Object
• Language: English
• Published: 2015
• Subjects: european temperature; climatology; North Atlantic; North Atlantic oscillation
• Online Access: http://hdl.handle.net/11104/0249116

Gridded monthly temperature data (GISTEMP and Berkeley Earth) covering the European region were investigated for the presence of components attributable to climate forcings, both anthropogenic and natural, and to major modes of internal climate variability. Effects of individual predictors were separated by multiple linear regression applied to time series over 1882–2010. It was shown that the presence of a warming trend correlated with greenhouse gases concentration was generally strong in European temperatures and typically combined with mild cooling ascribable to anthropogenic aerosols. Components attributable to variations in solar activity were rather weak and not statistically significant in most locations, as were the imprints of large volcanic eruptions. A strong association between North Atlantic Oscillation phase and temperature was confirmed for much of Europe, while temperature oscillations synchronized with the El Niño Southern Oscillation were quite limited in magnitude and displayed low levels of statistical significance. The influence of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation was noticeable particularly in the western-most parts of Europe, whereas the Pacific Decadal Oscillation’s significant impact extended to Scandinavia.