Relationships between the North Atlantic Oscillation index and temperatures in Europe in global climate models
The study evaluates relationships between the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index and winter temperatures (including indices of extremes) over Europe in an ensemble of transient simulations of current global climate models (GCMs). We focus on identification of areas in which the NAO index is link...
Published in: | Studia Geophysica et Geodaetica |
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Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1007/s11200-012-0824-0 http://hdl.handle.net/11104/0219611 |
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ftczacademyscien:oai:asep.lib.cas.cz:CavUnEpca/0390763 2024-02-04T10:02:23+01:00 Relationships between the North Atlantic Oscillation index and temperatures in Europe in global climate models Beranová, R. (Romana) Kyselý, J. (Jan) 2013 https://doi.org/10.1007/s11200-012-0824-0 http://hdl.handle.net/11104/0219611 eng eng doi:10.1007/s11200-012-0824-0 urn:pissn: 0039-3169 urn:eissn: 1573-1626 http://hdl.handle.net/11104/0219611 North Atlantic Oscillation global climate models climate change surface air temperature Europe info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion 2013 ftczacademyscien https://doi.org/10.1007/s11200-012-0824-0 2024-01-09T17:23:57Z The study evaluates relationships between the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index and winter temperatures (including indices of extremes) over Europe in an ensemble of transient simulations of current global climate models (GCMs). We focus on identification of areas in which the NAO index is linked to winter temperatures and temperature extremes in simulations of the recent climate (1961−2000), and evaluate how these relationships change in climate change scenarios for the late 21st century (2071−2100). Most GCMs are able to reproduce main features of the observed links. The NAO index is more important for cold than warm extremes, which is also reproduced by the GCMs. However, all GCMs underestimate the magnitude of the NAO influence on cold extremes when averaged over northern and western Europe. For future scenarios, the links between the NAO and temperatures are mostly analogous to those in the recent climate, except for one GCM (CM3) in which the influence of the NAO on temperature almost disappears over whole Europe. This suggests that future scenarios from this particular GCM should be evaluated with caution. The NAO index is found to represent a useful covariate that explains an important fraction of variability of cold extremes in winter, and its incorporation into extreme value models for daily temperatures (and their possible changes under climate change) may improve performance of these models and reliability of estimates of extremes and their uncertainty. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation The Czech Academy of Sciences: Publication Activity (ASEP) Studia Geophysica et Geodaetica 57 1 138 153 |
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Open Polar |
collection |
The Czech Academy of Sciences: Publication Activity (ASEP) |
op_collection_id |
ftczacademyscien |
language |
English |
topic |
North Atlantic Oscillation global climate models climate change surface air temperature Europe |
spellingShingle |
North Atlantic Oscillation global climate models climate change surface air temperature Europe Beranová, R. (Romana) Kyselý, J. (Jan) Relationships between the North Atlantic Oscillation index and temperatures in Europe in global climate models |
topic_facet |
North Atlantic Oscillation global climate models climate change surface air temperature Europe |
description |
The study evaluates relationships between the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index and winter temperatures (including indices of extremes) over Europe in an ensemble of transient simulations of current global climate models (GCMs). We focus on identification of areas in which the NAO index is linked to winter temperatures and temperature extremes in simulations of the recent climate (1961−2000), and evaluate how these relationships change in climate change scenarios for the late 21st century (2071−2100). Most GCMs are able to reproduce main features of the observed links. The NAO index is more important for cold than warm extremes, which is also reproduced by the GCMs. However, all GCMs underestimate the magnitude of the NAO influence on cold extremes when averaged over northern and western Europe. For future scenarios, the links between the NAO and temperatures are mostly analogous to those in the recent climate, except for one GCM (CM3) in which the influence of the NAO on temperature almost disappears over whole Europe. This suggests that future scenarios from this particular GCM should be evaluated with caution. The NAO index is found to represent a useful covariate that explains an important fraction of variability of cold extremes in winter, and its incorporation into extreme value models for daily temperatures (and their possible changes under climate change) may improve performance of these models and reliability of estimates of extremes and their uncertainty. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Beranová, R. (Romana) Kyselý, J. (Jan) |
author_facet |
Beranová, R. (Romana) Kyselý, J. (Jan) |
author_sort |
Beranová, R. (Romana) |
title |
Relationships between the North Atlantic Oscillation index and temperatures in Europe in global climate models |
title_short |
Relationships between the North Atlantic Oscillation index and temperatures in Europe in global climate models |
title_full |
Relationships between the North Atlantic Oscillation index and temperatures in Europe in global climate models |
title_fullStr |
Relationships between the North Atlantic Oscillation index and temperatures in Europe in global climate models |
title_full_unstemmed |
Relationships between the North Atlantic Oscillation index and temperatures in Europe in global climate models |
title_sort |
relationships between the north atlantic oscillation index and temperatures in europe in global climate models |
publishDate |
2013 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1007/s11200-012-0824-0 http://hdl.handle.net/11104/0219611 |
genre |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
op_relation |
doi:10.1007/s11200-012-0824-0 urn:pissn: 0039-3169 urn:eissn: 1573-1626 http://hdl.handle.net/11104/0219611 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1007/s11200-012-0824-0 |
container_title |
Studia Geophysica et Geodaetica |
container_volume |
57 |
container_issue |
1 |
container_start_page |
138 |
op_container_end_page |
153 |
_version_ |
1789969009133748224 |