Monitoring a předpovídání populační početnosti hraboše polního
Although the monitoring of common vole (Microtus arvalis) populations in central Europe has been carried out for decades, quantitative forecasting models have rarely been implemented. Here we describe the population dynamics of the common vole in the Czech Republic over a period 2000-2009 and propos...
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Online Access: | http://hdl.handle.net/11104/0187868 |
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ftczacademyscien:oai:asep.lib.cas.cz:CavUnEpca/0346988 2023-12-24T10:16:00+01:00 Monitoring a předpovídání populační početnosti hraboše polního Tkadlec, E. (Emil) Heroldová, M. (Marta) Obdržálková, D. Zejda, J. Zapletal, M. 2010 http://hdl.handle.net/11104/0187868 cze cze urn:pissn: 1211-3565 http://hdl.handle.net/11104/0187868 Microtus arvalis forecasting modelling population dynamics info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion 2010 ftczacademyscien 2023-11-28T17:13:52Z Although the monitoring of common vole (Microtus arvalis) populations in central Europe has been carried out for decades, quantitative forecasting models have rarely been implemented. Here we describe the population dynamics of the common vole in the Czech Republic over a period 2000-2009 and propose mathematical models for prediction of spring and autumn population densities at the level of districts. These models are based on functions for negative feedbacks, with the parameter estimates being obtained by model averaging. The forecasts made at the end of 2008 were in a good agreement with observations for most districts. For 2010, the models predict low numbers in most districts but the degree of uncertainty is still high. The results emphasize the importance of the monitoring programme and its regular execution as a basis for creating well-informed predictive management and successful plant protection against the common vole in the Czech Republic. Article in Journal/Newspaper Common vole Microtus arvalis The Czech Academy of Sciences: Publication Activity (ASEP) |
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The Czech Academy of Sciences: Publication Activity (ASEP) |
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ftczacademyscien |
language |
Czech |
topic |
Microtus arvalis forecasting modelling population dynamics |
spellingShingle |
Microtus arvalis forecasting modelling population dynamics Tkadlec, E. (Emil) Heroldová, M. (Marta) Obdržálková, D. Zejda, J. Zapletal, M. Monitoring a předpovídání populační početnosti hraboše polního |
topic_facet |
Microtus arvalis forecasting modelling population dynamics |
description |
Although the monitoring of common vole (Microtus arvalis) populations in central Europe has been carried out for decades, quantitative forecasting models have rarely been implemented. Here we describe the population dynamics of the common vole in the Czech Republic over a period 2000-2009 and propose mathematical models for prediction of spring and autumn population densities at the level of districts. These models are based on functions for negative feedbacks, with the parameter estimates being obtained by model averaging. The forecasts made at the end of 2008 were in a good agreement with observations for most districts. For 2010, the models predict low numbers in most districts but the degree of uncertainty is still high. The results emphasize the importance of the monitoring programme and its regular execution as a basis for creating well-informed predictive management and successful plant protection against the common vole in the Czech Republic. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Tkadlec, E. (Emil) Heroldová, M. (Marta) Obdržálková, D. Zejda, J. Zapletal, M. |
author_facet |
Tkadlec, E. (Emil) Heroldová, M. (Marta) Obdržálková, D. Zejda, J. Zapletal, M. |
author_sort |
Tkadlec, E. (Emil) |
title |
Monitoring a předpovídání populační početnosti hraboše polního |
title_short |
Monitoring a předpovídání populační početnosti hraboše polního |
title_full |
Monitoring a předpovídání populační početnosti hraboše polního |
title_fullStr |
Monitoring a předpovídání populační početnosti hraboše polního |
title_full_unstemmed |
Monitoring a předpovídání populační početnosti hraboše polního |
title_sort |
monitoring a předpovídání populační početnosti hraboše polního |
publishDate |
2010 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/11104/0187868 |
genre |
Common vole Microtus arvalis |
genre_facet |
Common vole Microtus arvalis |
op_relation |
urn:pissn: 1211-3565 http://hdl.handle.net/11104/0187868 |
_version_ |
1786203286052798464 |