О прогнозировании термических условий в Сахалино-Курильском регионе по спутниковым данным

• Main Authors: Шершнева, О., Шевченко, Г.
• Format: Text
• Language: unknown
• Published: Федеральное государственное унитарное предприятие «Тихоокеанский научно-исследовательский рыбохозяйственный центр» 2005
• Subjects: Sakhalin
• Online Access: http://cyberleninka.ru/article/n/o-prognozirovanii-termicheskih-usloviy-v-sahalino-kurilskom-regione-po-sputnikovym-dannym; http://cyberleninka.ru/article_covers/2323886.png

Проанализированы ряды средних за сезон (исключая зиму) значений температуры поверхности моря по спутниковым данным по набору одноградусных квадратов в акваториях, прилегающих к Сахалину и Курильским островам, за период 1982-2003 гг. Методами спектрально-временного и гармонического анализа определены основные циклические составляющие, которые использовались для описания межгодовых вариаций термических условий в различные сезоны. На основе вычисленных для каждого квадрата амплитуд и фаз нескольких наиболее значимых гармоник рассчитаны прогностические значения на 2004-2005 гг. Проведено сравнение аномалий температуры поверхности океана, полученных на основе спутниковых данных в южной части Татарского пролива, с аномалиями температуры воды в различных слоях по судовым съемкам на стандартном разрезе мыс Слепиковского мыс Золотой. Interannual variation of sea surface temperature (SST) in the waters adjacent to Sakhalin and Kuril Islands is analyzed on the base of satellite measurements; dominant cycles are determined for certain areas; ability of the SST forecasting with earliness of two years is shown. To estimate the depth of reliable SST forecasting, the SST variations are compared with temperature anomalies in different layers calculated from CTD profiles on the standard section Cape Slepikovsky Cape Zolotoy in the Tartar Strait. The satellite information was gathered for ten 1° ґ 1° squares selected in different parts of the Sakhalin and Kuril Regions from the data set of monthly mean SST obtained by SakhNIRO using TeraScan station (1997-2003) and Goddard Distributed Active Archive Center (GDAAC) (1982-1997). The data were grouped by seasons to spring (April, May, June), summer (July, August, September), and autumn (October, November, December) and then were analyzed by methods of spectral-time (wave-let) and harmonic analysis. Depending on season, SST cyclic components had different periods because of significant change of oceanographic conditions from spring to autumn. Thus, the analysis and forecast of SST must be carried out for each season separately. Amplitudes and phases of the main three harmonics were determined for each 1° ґ 1° square, and these harmonics were used for SST forecasting. The most intensive and stable periodic interannual changes of the SST were observed in summer when the well-expressed cycle with period about 5.0-5.5 years was found in the most of selected points. Probably this cycle caused a high correlation between observed and predicted SST series that gives us a confidence of our SST forecast. In intermediate seasons (in spring especially), SST variability was not stable, i.e. its oscillations had temporal changing. Their stochastic character didn't allow to produce a reliable forecast. Probably, mean SST is not a representative parameter for interannual variations in intermediate seasons, and there is necessary to find a new one, may be based on the rate of SST increasing and decreasing. Comparison the SST anomalies with the anomalies in deeper layers showed a good compliance for the upper 100 meters water layer, in particularly for the eastern part of the standard section.