Прогнозирование динамики термокарстовых озер в зоне многолетней мерзлоты на основе космических снимков и математического моделирования

• Main Authors: Кирпотин, Сергей, Полищук, Владимир
• Format: Text
• Language: unknown
• Published: Федеральное государственное бюджетное образовательное учреждение высшего профессионального образования «Национальный исследовательский Томский государственный университет» 2013
• Subjects: МНОГОЛЕТНЯЯ МЕРЗЛОТА; ДИСТАНЦИОННОЕ ЗОНДИРОВАНИЕ; МАТЕМАТИЧЕСКОЕ МОДЕЛИРОВАНИЕ; permafrost; Thermokarst; термокарст*; Siberia
• Online Access: http://cyberleninka.ru/article/n/prognozirovanie-dinamiki-termokarstovyh-ozer-v-zone-mnogoletney-merzloty-na-osnove-kosmicheskih-snimkov-i-matematicheskogo; http://cyberleninka.ru/article_covers/15602874.png

Вследствие высокой степени заболоченности и труднодоступности территории многолетней мерзлоты изучение термокарстовых процессов в зоне многолетней мерзлоты в связи с глобальными климатическими изменениями проводится с применением данных дистанционного зондирования поверхности Земли. При этом в качестве наиболее пригодных геоморфологических индикаторов изменений термокарстовых процессов используются хорошо дешифрируемые на космических снимках термокарстовые озёра. На основе установленных в ходе исследования свойств полей термокарстовых озер сформулированы основные положения, определяющие существенные свойства модели пространственно-временной структуры полей термокарстовых озёр. В результате получена модель в виде совокупности окружностей со случайными радиусами и расположением, статистические свойства которой определены по космоснимкам. Проведено прогнозирование динамики полей термокарстовых озер с использованием разработанной модели на основе компьютерного эксперимента в соответствии со сценарием до 2030 г. The paper is devoted to modeling and prediction dynamics of thermokarst lake fields in permafrost. Because of the high extent of waterlogging and difficult areas of permafrost study thermokarst processes in permafrost due to global climate change is carried out using of remote sensing data (RSD) of the surface of the Earth. In this case as the most suitable geomorphic indicators of changes in thermokarst processes which well decoded on satellite images are thermokarst lakes, formed as a result the earth''s surface subsidence due to thawing permafrost. To study thermokarst landscapes frozen bogs and vegetation features necessary to have space images for a multiyear period of time. Currently, this condition is satisfied with satellite images from Landsat satellites with more than 40 years of satellite data archives. When using remote sensing plays an important role computer processing of satellite images. Currently, processing and decoding of images is carried out using application packages, the most common of which are ENVI, ERDAS Imagine, ArcGis, allowing to carry out a set of basic image processing operations. During the research allocated 30 test sites. On each of the test sites was determined from several hundred to several thousand thermokarst lakes of various sizes. Found that common to all test sites is the exponential nature of the distribution law of lakes by sizes. The measurement results stored in the database on the areas of thermokarst lakes in Western Siberia on the basis of satellite images. On the basis of identified during the investigation of the properties of fields thermokarst lakes formulated the basic provisions determining the essential properties of the model spatiotemporal structure of thermokarst lakes fields. Thus forms of coastal boundaries of lakes may be represented by the circles. The spatial changes coordinates of the centers of the circles and squares are statistically independent. Random distribution of each of the coordinates of the centers of the circles defined by the law of uniform density. Random distribution of the areas of circles determined by exponential law of distribution. Dependence of the statistical properties of the field of thermokarst lakes on temperature and precipitation is described by the regression equation. As major elements of the model description defined characteristics, taking into account the shape of the lake, the parameters of the random distribution of the plane and a random distribution of lakes size. The result was a model as a set of circles with random radii and locations, statistical properties of which are determined on base of space images. Carried out prediction of field dynamics of thermokarst lakes using the developed model based on computer simulation in accordance with the scenario until 2030 year.