ОЦЕНКА ОПАСНОСТИ И РИСКОВ НАВОДНЕНИЙ В Г. БАРНАУЛЕ (ПОС. ЗАТОН)

• Main Authors: Голубева, Анастасия, Земцов, Валерий
• Format: Text
• Language: unknown
• Published: Федеральное государственное бюджетное образовательное учреждение высшего профессионального образования "Национальный исследовательский Томский государственный университет" 2013
• Subjects: НАВОДНЕНИЯ; ОЦЕНКА ОПАСНОСТИ; ОЦЕНКА РИСКА; ЦИФРОВАЯ МОДЕЛЬ РЕЛЬЕФА; ОПРЕДЕЛЕНИЕ ГРАНИЦ ЗОН ЗАТОПЛЕНИЯ; ob river
• Online Access: http://cyberleninka.ru/article/n/otsenka-opasnosti-i-riskov-navodneniy-v-g-barnaule-pos-zaton; http://cyberleninka.ru/article_covers/14424260.png

Дается оценка опасности и рисков наводнений на примере р. Обь около Барнаула. Определена методика исследования опасности затопления территории, наиболее подходящая для локального масштаба. На основе статистического анализа вычислены максимальные уровни половодья р. Обь в Барнауле малой обеспеченности. Методом картографического моделирования определены границы зон затопления при наводнениях с максимальными уровнями воды разной расчетной обеспеченности. Проведённые расчёты проверены с помощью метода реального года на примере половодья 2010 г. В результате исследования получена оценка исследуемой территории по степени опасности затопления, социального и экономического риска наводнений. In recent decades, a lot of research is devoted to flood assessment due to the ever-increasing damage. The authors consider theoretical and practical aspects of hazard and flood risk, as well as the methodological foundations for the study of these issues at the local level. It is proposed to assess the hazard and risk (social and economic) using the methods of cartographic modeling and scenario forecast. Floods are the most dangerous natural phenomenon that brings the most considerable damage to the city of Barnaul because about 10% of its area is located in the floodplain of the Ob River. Part of the city is exposed to frequent flooding during a high water period in spring and summer. Initial hydrological data is a long term time series of observed maximum water stages in the Ob River for the period since 1937. The time series was tested for homogeneity using the Fisher Test for sample variances and the Student Test for sample means. The 42-year period of observations 1970-2011 is selected as homogeneous for flood frequency analysis. The maximum water stages of the Ob River at Barnaul with 1; 2.33; 5; 10; 25 and 50 % probability of exceedance were derived. The method of cartographic modeling was applied for mapping areas vulnerable for flooding at a local scale; and the boundaries of submerged areas for maximum water levels with the assigned probabilities of exceedance were determined using framework on the basis of the preliminary developed Digital Elevation Model of a floodplain where the Zaton district of Barnaul city is situated. Accuracy of the determined boundaries was tested for the flood 2010 of 2.33% maximum water stage frequency. A good agreement between the calculated and observed boundaries was obtained. Taking account of the flooded areas corresponding to the assigned water stages, the number of people inhabiting each area, and the value of property and commercial facilities situated in the area, the relation between the water stage and the damage caused by flooding were derived and social and economic risks as a combination of the probability of hazardous flooding and the magnitude of damage were calculated and analyzed. The paper is intended for ecologists, geographers working in research, design, construction organizations, public control and management bodies, as well as for students and teachers of science.