Spatio-temporal modelling of extreme storms
A flexible spatio-temporal model is implemented to analyse extreme extra-tropical cyclones objectively identified over the Atlantic and Europe in 6-hourly re-analyses from 1979–2009. Spatial variation in the extremal properties of the cyclones is captured using a 150 cell spatial regularisation, lat...
Published in: | The Annals of Applied Statistics |
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The Institute of Mathematical Statistics
2014
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Online Access: | http://projecteuclid.org/euclid.aoas/1419001741 https://doi.org/10.1214/14-AOAS766 |
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ftculeuclid:oai:CULeuclid:euclid.aoas/1419001741 2023-05-15T17:31:54+02:00 Spatio-temporal modelling of extreme storms Economou, Theodoros Stephenson, David B. Ferro, Christopher A. T. 2014-12 application/pdf http://projecteuclid.org/euclid.aoas/1419001741 https://doi.org/10.1214/14-AOAS766 en eng The Institute of Mathematical Statistics 1932-6157 1941-7330 Copyright 2014 Institute of Mathematical Statistics Bayesian hierarchical model spatial random effects natural hazards extra-tropical cyclones extreme value distribution European windstorms Text 2014 ftculeuclid https://doi.org/10.1214/14-AOAS766 2018-10-06T12:48:48Z A flexible spatio-temporal model is implemented to analyse extreme extra-tropical cyclones objectively identified over the Atlantic and Europe in 6-hourly re-analyses from 1979–2009. Spatial variation in the extremal properties of the cyclones is captured using a 150 cell spatial regularisation, latitude as a covariate, and spatial random effects. The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is also used as a covariate and is found to have a significant effect on intensifying extremal storm behaviour, especially over Northern Europe and the Iberian peninsula. Estimates of lower bounds on minimum sea-level pressure are typically 10–50 hPa below the minimum values observed for historical storms with largest differences occurring when the NAO index is positive. Text North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Project Euclid (Cornell University Library) The Annals of Applied Statistics 8 4 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Project Euclid (Cornell University Library) |
op_collection_id |
ftculeuclid |
language |
English |
topic |
Bayesian hierarchical model spatial random effects natural hazards extra-tropical cyclones extreme value distribution European windstorms |
spellingShingle |
Bayesian hierarchical model spatial random effects natural hazards extra-tropical cyclones extreme value distribution European windstorms Economou, Theodoros Stephenson, David B. Ferro, Christopher A. T. Spatio-temporal modelling of extreme storms |
topic_facet |
Bayesian hierarchical model spatial random effects natural hazards extra-tropical cyclones extreme value distribution European windstorms |
description |
A flexible spatio-temporal model is implemented to analyse extreme extra-tropical cyclones objectively identified over the Atlantic and Europe in 6-hourly re-analyses from 1979–2009. Spatial variation in the extremal properties of the cyclones is captured using a 150 cell spatial regularisation, latitude as a covariate, and spatial random effects. The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is also used as a covariate and is found to have a significant effect on intensifying extremal storm behaviour, especially over Northern Europe and the Iberian peninsula. Estimates of lower bounds on minimum sea-level pressure are typically 10–50 hPa below the minimum values observed for historical storms with largest differences occurring when the NAO index is positive. |
format |
Text |
author |
Economou, Theodoros Stephenson, David B. Ferro, Christopher A. T. |
author_facet |
Economou, Theodoros Stephenson, David B. Ferro, Christopher A. T. |
author_sort |
Economou, Theodoros |
title |
Spatio-temporal modelling of extreme storms |
title_short |
Spatio-temporal modelling of extreme storms |
title_full |
Spatio-temporal modelling of extreme storms |
title_fullStr |
Spatio-temporal modelling of extreme storms |
title_full_unstemmed |
Spatio-temporal modelling of extreme storms |
title_sort |
spatio-temporal modelling of extreme storms |
publisher |
The Institute of Mathematical Statistics |
publishDate |
2014 |
url |
http://projecteuclid.org/euclid.aoas/1419001741 https://doi.org/10.1214/14-AOAS766 |
genre |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
op_relation |
1932-6157 1941-7330 |
op_rights |
Copyright 2014 Institute of Mathematical Statistics |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1214/14-AOAS766 |
container_title |
The Annals of Applied Statistics |
container_volume |
8 |
container_issue |
4 |
_version_ |
1766129798700072960 |