Temporal evolution of measured climate forcing agents at South Pole, Antarctica

• Main Authors: Ghude, Sachin D., Jain, S. L., Arya, B. C.
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: unknown
• Published: Indian Academy of Sciences 2009
• Subjects: Physics; South Pole; Antarc*; Antarctica; South pole
• Online Access: http://npl.csircentral.net/736/; http://npl.csircentral.net/736/1/285.pdf

Greenhouse gas (GHG; mainly CO(2), CH(4), N(2)O, CFC-11 and CFC-12) measurements for 22 years (1983-2004) have been analysed to evaluate the radiative forcing (RF) and temporal evolution at the South Pole. About 20% increase in growth rate of CO(2) has been observed during 1992-2004 compared to 1983-91. However, remarkable deceleration in the growth rate of CH4, CFC-11 and CFC-12 has been observed. CO2 radiative forcing has increased by similar to 49% during 2004 for 10% increase in CO(2) concentration during the last 22 years. RF due to CH(4) was found to be 0.47 W m(-2) in 1999 and since then has remained almost constant through 2004. The net RF has been observed to increase by 0.7 W m(-2) during 2004 compared to 1983, which corresponds to similar to 38% increase in the last 22 years. Growth rate of net RF decreased by similar to 22% during 1990-2004, compared to the growth rate during 1983-90. A global warming simulation made using the EdGCM model shows an increase in surface air temperature and sea surface temperature of about 1.7 degrees C and 1 degrees C respectively, in 2050 compared to 1958. In response to change in GHGs from 1958 to 2050, warming over the higher latitudes is greater than in the tropics and also increase in minimum temperature is greater than the increase in maximum temperature. Similarly, up to 50% change in snow-ice cover over some of the regions in the higher latitudes is observed with this simulation.