Predicting average wintertime wind and wave conditions in the North Atlantic and adjacent seas from Eurasian snow cover in october
Content from this work may be used under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 licence. The present study assesses the lead-lag teleconnection between Eurasian snow cover in October and the December-to-February mean boreal winter climate with respect to the predictability of 10m wind spe...
| Published in: | Environmental Research Letters |
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| Main Author: | |
| Other Authors: | , |
| Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
| Language: | English |
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Institute of Physics Publishing
2014
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://hdl.handle.net/10261/94120 https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/9/4/045006 https://doi.org/10.13039/501100000780 https://doi.org/10.13039/501100003339 |
| Summary: | Content from this work may be used under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 licence. The present study assesses the lead-lag teleconnection between Eurasian snow cover in October and the December-to-February mean boreal winter climate with respect to the predictability of 10m wind speed and significant wave heights in the North Atlantic and adjacent seas. Lead-lag correlations exceeding a magnitude of 0.8 are found for the short time period of 1997/98 - 2012/13 (n = 16) for which daily 14 satellite-sensed snow cover data is available to date. The respective cross-validated hindcast skill obtained from using linear regression as a statistical forecasting technique is similarly large in magnitude. When using a longer but degraded time series of weekly snow cover data for calculating the predictor variable (1979/80 - 2011/12, n18 = 34), hindcast skill decreases but yet remains signi cant over a large fraction of the study area. In addition, Monte-Carlo eld signi cance tests reveal that the patterns of skill are globally signi cant. The proposed method might be used to make forecast decisions for wind and wave energy generation, seafaring, shery and o shore drilling. To exemplify its potential suitability for the latter sector, it is additionally applied to DJF frequencies of signi cant wave heights exceeding 2m, a threshold value above which mooring conditions at oil platforms are no longer optimal. This study was funded by the CSIC JAE-PREDOC programme, the EU FP7 projects SPECS (308378) and EUPORIAS (308291). Peer reviewed |
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