Tipping Elements in the Arctic Marine Ecosystem

• Published in: AMBIO
• Main Authors: Duarte, Carlos M., Agustí, Susana, Alcaraz, Miquel, Vaqué, Dolors
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: Springer 2012
• Subjects: Arctic; Tipping points; Ecosystem; Non-linearity; Ice; Plankton; Arctic Ocean; Duarte; Climate change; Ice Sheet; Sea ice
• Online Access: http://hdl.handle.net/10261/45167; https://doi.org/10.1007/s13280-011-0224-7

Carlos M. Duarte et al. The Arctic marine ecosystem contains multiple elements that present alternative states. The most obvious of which is an Arctic Ocean largely covered by an ice sheet in summer versus one largely devoid of such cover. Ecosystems under pressure typically shift between such alternative states in an abrupt, rather than smooth manner, with the level of forcing required for shifting this status termed threshold or tipping point. Loss of Arctic ice due to anthropogenic climate change is accelerating, with the extent of Arctic sea ice displaying increased variance at present, a leading indicator of the proximity of a possible tipping point. Reduced ice extent is expected, in turn, to trigger a number of additional tipping elements, physical, chemical, and biological, in motion, with potentially large impacts on the Arctic marine ecosystem. This is a contribution to the Arctic Tipping Points project (www.eu-atp.org) funded by FP7 of the European Union (contract #226248). Peer reviewed