Impact of climate change on snowpack dynamics in coastal Central-Western Greenland
© 2023 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). Snow patterns in ice-free areas of Greenland play important roles in ecosystems. Within a changing climate, a comprehensive understanding of the snow r...
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Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
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Elsevier BV
2024
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Online Access: | http://hdl.handle.net/10261/357598 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.169616 https://doi.org/10.13039/501100004837 https://doi.org/10.13039/501100011033 https://doi.org/10.13039/501100002809 |
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Digital.CSIC (Spanish National Research Council) |
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© 2023 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). Snow patterns in ice-free areas of Greenland play important roles in ecosystems. Within a changing climate, a comprehensive understanding of the snow responses to climate change is of interest to anticipate forthcoming dynamics in these areas. In this study, we analyze the future snowpack evolution of a polar maritime Arctic location, Qeqertarsuaq (Disko Island, Central-Western Greenland). A physically-based snow model (FSM2) is validated and forced with CMIP6 projections for SSP2–4.5 and SSP5–8.5 greenhouse gasses emission scenarios, using two models: CanESM5 and MIROC6. The future snowpack evolution is assessed through four key seasonal (October to May) snow climate indicators: snow depth, snow days, snowfall fraction and ablation rate. Comparison against the observed air temperature for the reference climate period demonstrates superior accuracies for MIROC6 SSP2.4–5, with anomalies at 19 %, compared to CanESM5 SSP5.8–5 (25 %) and CanESM5 SSP2.4–5 (78 %). In terms of precipitation, CanESM5 SSP2.4–5 and SSP2.4–5 exhibit smaller anomalies against the observed data (5 %) in contrast to MIROC6 SSP2.4–5 (15 %) and MIROC6 SSP2.8–5 (17 %). Results demonstrate distinct snowpack responses to climate change depending on the model and emission scenario. For CanESM5, seasonal snow depth anomalies with respect to the reference period range from – 38 % (SSP2–4.5, 2040–2050 period) to – 74 % (SSP5–8.5, 2090–2100 period). MIROC6 projects lower snowpack reductions, with a decrease ranging from – 38 % (SSP2–4.5, 2040–2050 period) to – 57 % (SSP5–8.5, 2090–2100 period). Similar reductions are anticipated for snowfall and snow days. Changes in the snowpack evolution are primarily driven by positive trends in downwelling longwave radiation and air temperature. The projected increase in precipitation by the mid to late 21st century will lead to more frequent rain-on-snow events, ... |
author2 |
Generalitat de Catalunya Ministerio de Ciencia, Innovación y Universidades (España) Agencia Estatal de Investigación (España) Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación (España) Alonso-González, Esteban Revuelto, Jesús López-Moreno, Juan I. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Bonsoms, Josep Oliva, Marc Alonso-González, Esteban Revuelto, Jesús López-Moreno, Juan I. |
spellingShingle |
Bonsoms, Josep Oliva, Marc Alonso-González, Esteban Revuelto, Jesús López-Moreno, Juan I. Impact of climate change on snowpack dynamics in coastal Central-Western Greenland |
author_facet |
Bonsoms, Josep Oliva, Marc Alonso-González, Esteban Revuelto, Jesús López-Moreno, Juan I. |
author_sort |
Bonsoms, Josep |
title |
Impact of climate change on snowpack dynamics in coastal Central-Western Greenland |
title_short |
Impact of climate change on snowpack dynamics in coastal Central-Western Greenland |
title_full |
Impact of climate change on snowpack dynamics in coastal Central-Western Greenland |
title_fullStr |
Impact of climate change on snowpack dynamics in coastal Central-Western Greenland |
title_full_unstemmed |
Impact of climate change on snowpack dynamics in coastal Central-Western Greenland |
title_sort |
impact of climate change on snowpack dynamics in coastal central-western greenland |
publisher |
Elsevier BV |
publishDate |
2024 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/10261/357598 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.169616 https://doi.org/10.13039/501100004837 https://doi.org/10.13039/501100011033 https://doi.org/10.13039/501100002809 |
long_lat |
ENVELOPE(-56.867,-56.867,74.400,74.400) |
geographic |
Arctic Greenland Qeqertarsuaq |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Greenland Qeqertarsuaq |
genre |
Arctic Climate change Greenland Qeqertarsuaq |
genre_facet |
Arctic Climate change Greenland Qeqertarsuaq |
op_relation |
#PLACEHOLDER_PARENT_METADATA_VALUE# info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/AEI/Plan Estatal de Investigación Científica y Técnica y de Innovación 2013-2016/CGL2017-82216-R/ES/EL PAPEL DE LA NIEVE EN LA HIDROLOGIA DE LA PENINSULA IBERICA Y SU RESPUESTA A PROCESOS DE CAMBIO GLOBAL/ info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/AEI/Plan Estatal de Investigación Científica y Técnica y de Innovación 2021-2023/PID2021-124220OB-I00/ES/PRESENTE Y FUTURO DE LOS MANTOS DE NIEVE MARGINALES Y SU INFLUENCIA HIDROLOGICA Y AMBIENTAL/ Publisher's version Precipitation records can be downloaded at doi:10.17897/638X-3Z89. Manual snow depth records can be found at doi:10.17897/FQJG-QP51.The remaining meteorological data can be accessed at doi:10.17897/CSZT-F010. The FSM2 model is available at Dr. Richard Essery‘s GitHub page (https://github.com/RichardEssery/FSM2). ERA5 data is accessible at https://cds.climate.copernicus.eu/ (last accessed: 08/06/2023). CMIP6 downscaled and bias-corrected data are available at https://ds.nccs.nasa.gov/thredds/ncss/AMES/NEX/GDDP-CMIP6 (last accessed: 08/06/2023). The underlying dataset has been published as supplementary material of the article in the publisher platform at https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.169616 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.169616 Sí Science of the Total Environment 913: 169616 (2024) 0048-9697 http://hdl.handle.net/10261/357598 doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.169616 1879-1026 http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100004837 http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100011033 http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100002809 |
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https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.16961610.13039/50110000483710.13039/50110001103310.13039/50110000280910.17897/638X-3Z89 |
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ftcsic:oai:digital.csic.es:10261/357598 2024-06-23T07:50:52+00:00 Impact of climate change on snowpack dynamics in coastal Central-Western Greenland Bonsoms, Josep Oliva, Marc Alonso-González, Esteban Revuelto, Jesús López-Moreno, Juan I. Generalitat de Catalunya Ministerio de Ciencia, Innovación y Universidades (España) Agencia Estatal de Investigación (España) Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación (España) Alonso-González, Esteban Revuelto, Jesús López-Moreno, Juan I. 2024-02-25 application/pdf http://hdl.handle.net/10261/357598 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.169616 https://doi.org/10.13039/501100004837 https://doi.org/10.13039/501100011033 https://doi.org/10.13039/501100002809 en eng Elsevier BV #PLACEHOLDER_PARENT_METADATA_VALUE# info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/AEI/Plan Estatal de Investigación Científica y Técnica y de Innovación 2013-2016/CGL2017-82216-R/ES/EL PAPEL DE LA NIEVE EN LA HIDROLOGIA DE LA PENINSULA IBERICA Y SU RESPUESTA A PROCESOS DE CAMBIO GLOBAL/ info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/AEI/Plan Estatal de Investigación Científica y Técnica y de Innovación 2021-2023/PID2021-124220OB-I00/ES/PRESENTE Y FUTURO DE LOS MANTOS DE NIEVE MARGINALES Y SU INFLUENCIA HIDROLOGICA Y AMBIENTAL/ Publisher's version Precipitation records can be downloaded at doi:10.17897/638X-3Z89. Manual snow depth records can be found at doi:10.17897/FQJG-QP51.The remaining meteorological data can be accessed at doi:10.17897/CSZT-F010. The FSM2 model is available at Dr. Richard Essery‘s GitHub page (https://github.com/RichardEssery/FSM2). ERA5 data is accessible at https://cds.climate.copernicus.eu/ (last accessed: 08/06/2023). CMIP6 downscaled and bias-corrected data are available at https://ds.nccs.nasa.gov/thredds/ncss/AMES/NEX/GDDP-CMIP6 (last accessed: 08/06/2023). The underlying dataset has been published as supplementary material of the article in the publisher platform at https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.169616 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.169616 Sí Science of the Total Environment 913: 169616 (2024) 0048-9697 http://hdl.handle.net/10261/357598 doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.169616 1879-1026 http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100004837 http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100011033 http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100002809 open artículo http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501 2024 ftcsic https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.16961610.13039/50110000483710.13039/50110001103310.13039/50110000280910.17897/638X-3Z89 2024-05-29T00:08:35Z © 2023 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). Snow patterns in ice-free areas of Greenland play important roles in ecosystems. Within a changing climate, a comprehensive understanding of the snow responses to climate change is of interest to anticipate forthcoming dynamics in these areas. In this study, we analyze the future snowpack evolution of a polar maritime Arctic location, Qeqertarsuaq (Disko Island, Central-Western Greenland). A physically-based snow model (FSM2) is validated and forced with CMIP6 projections for SSP2–4.5 and SSP5–8.5 greenhouse gasses emission scenarios, using two models: CanESM5 and MIROC6. The future snowpack evolution is assessed through four key seasonal (October to May) snow climate indicators: snow depth, snow days, snowfall fraction and ablation rate. Comparison against the observed air temperature for the reference climate period demonstrates superior accuracies for MIROC6 SSP2.4–5, with anomalies at 19 %, compared to CanESM5 SSP5.8–5 (25 %) and CanESM5 SSP2.4–5 (78 %). In terms of precipitation, CanESM5 SSP2.4–5 and SSP2.4–5 exhibit smaller anomalies against the observed data (5 %) in contrast to MIROC6 SSP2.4–5 (15 %) and MIROC6 SSP2.8–5 (17 %). Results demonstrate distinct snowpack responses to climate change depending on the model and emission scenario. For CanESM5, seasonal snow depth anomalies with respect to the reference period range from – 38 % (SSP2–4.5, 2040–2050 period) to – 74 % (SSP5–8.5, 2090–2100 period). MIROC6 projects lower snowpack reductions, with a decrease ranging from – 38 % (SSP2–4.5, 2040–2050 period) to – 57 % (SSP5–8.5, 2090–2100 period). Similar reductions are anticipated for snowfall and snow days. Changes in the snowpack evolution are primarily driven by positive trends in downwelling longwave radiation and air temperature. The projected increase in precipitation by the mid to late 21st century will lead to more frequent rain-on-snow events, ... Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Climate change Greenland Qeqertarsuaq Digital.CSIC (Spanish National Research Council) Arctic Greenland Qeqertarsuaq ENVELOPE(-56.867,-56.867,74.400,74.400) |