Future climate-induced distribution shifts in a sexually dimorphic key predator of the Southern Ocean

• Published in: Global Change Biology
• Main Authors: Ouled-Cheikh, Jazel, March, David, Borras-Chavez, Renato, Drago, Massimiliano, Goebel, Michael E., Fariña, José M., Gazo, Manel, Coll, Marta, Cardona, Luis
• Other Authors: Ministerio de Ciencia, Innovación y Universidades (España), Agencia Estatal de Investigación (España), Universidad de Barcelona, Generalitat de Catalunya, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (US), Instituto Antártico Chileno, Agencia Nacional de Investigación y Desarrollo (Chile), Generalitat Valenciana, Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación (España)
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: John Wiley & Sons 2024
• Subjects: Antarctic fur seal; Antarctic krill; Antarctic Peninsula; Arctocephalus gazella; Climate change; Euphausia superba; Habitat suitability; Philopatry; Sex-specific; Conserve and sustainably use the oceans; seas and marine resources for sustainable development; Antarctic; Bellingshausen Sea; South Shetland Islands; Southern Ocean; The Antarctic; Antarc*; Antarctic Fur Seal; Antarctic Fur Seals; Antarctic Krill
• Online Access: http://hdl.handle.net/10261/356757; https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.17191

17 pages, 5 figures, supporting Information https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.17191.-- Data Availability Statement: Raw data and results (produced prediction TIFF files) can be openly found in the repository of the University of Barcelona (https://doi.org/10.34810/data1064).-- Code Availability Statement: All the R code used in this study is available in the following GitHub repository (https://github.com/jazelouled/AntarcticFurSeal_ClimateChange; https://zenodo.org/doi/10.5281/zenodo.10610953). The response to climate change in highly dimorphic species can be hindered by differences between sexes in habitat preferences and movement patterns. The Antarctic fur seal, Arctocephalus gazella, is the most abundant pinniped in the Southern Hemisphere, and one of the main consumers of Antarctic krill, Euphausia superba, in the Southern Ocean. However, the populations breeding in the Atlantic Southern Ocean are decreasing, partly due to global warming. Male and female Antarctic fur seals differ greatly in body size and foraging ecology, and little is known about their sex-specific responses to climate change. We used satellite tracking data and Earth System Models to predict changes in habitat suitability for male and female Antarctic fur seals from the Western Antarctic Peninsula under different climate change scenarios. Under the most extreme scenario (SSP5-8.5; global average temperature +4.4°C projected by 2100), suitable habitat patches will shift southward during the non-breeding season, leading to a minor overall habitat loss. The impact will be more pronounced for females than for males. The reduction of winter foraging grounds might decrease the survival of post-weaned females, reducing recruitment and jeopardizing population viability. During the breeding season, when males fast on land, suitable foraging grounds for females off the South Shetland Islands will remain largely unmodified, and new ones will emerge in the Bellingshausen Sea. As Antarctic fur seals are income breeders, the foraging grounds of females ...