Jet configurations leading to extreme winter temperatures over Europe
The North Atlantic eddy-driven jet (EDJ) is the main driver of winter weather in Europe and has often been described by its latitude or strength. Here, we show that the influence of the EDJ on European winter temperature extremes can be better characterized by a multiparametric perspective that acco...
Published in: | Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres |
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ftcsic:oai:digital.csic.es:10261/342244 2024-02-11T10:06:37+01:00 Jet configurations leading to extreme winter temperatures over Europe García-Burgos M. Ayarzagüena B. Barriopedro, David García-Herrera R. Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación (España) 2023 http://hdl.handle.net/10261/342244 https://doi.org/10.1029/2023JD039304 unknown No Consta #PLACEHOLDER_PARENT_METADATA_VALUE# info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/AEI/Plan Estatal de Investigación Científica y Técnica y de Innovación 2017-2020/RTI2018-096402-B-I00/ES/DINAMICA DEL JET Y EXTREMOS/ Publisher's version http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2023JD039304 Sí doi:10.1029/2023JD039304 issn: 2169-897X JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES 128 (2023) http://hdl.handle.net/10261/342244 open artículo 2023 ftcsic https://doi.org/10.1029/2023JD039304 2024-01-16T11:56:33Z The North Atlantic eddy-driven jet (EDJ) is the main driver of winter weather in Europe and has often been described by its latitude or strength. Here, we show that the influence of the EDJ on European winter temperature extremes can be better characterized by a multiparametric perspective that accounts for additional aspects of the EDJ structure (tilt, zonal elongation, etc.). We identify four regions where extreme temperatures are distinctly associated with the EDJ: Scandinavia, Central Europe, Eastern Europe, and Western Mediterranean (WMED). Overall, the anomalous horizontal advection induced by blockings during cold spells and enhanced westerlies during warm events is the main mechanism leading to extreme event occurrence. However, diabatic processes play an important role in WMED region. Both processes generate asymmetric effects in minimum and maximum temperatures contributing to higher intensities of cold than warm events. These extreme events are associated with different EDJ configurations, which typically involve perturbed EDJs during cold spells and strong tilted EDJs during warm events, but with important variations depending on the region. In almost every region, the combined effects of more than two EDJ parameters yield significant increases in the probability of cold and warm events, suggesting an oversimplification of traditional approaches based on a single EDJ parameter. We show, using logistic regression models, that, although important, latitude and intensity are often unable to discriminate unequivocally the region of extreme event occurrence, and in some regions, they do not drive the largest changes in the odds of extremes. This research was funded by the project JeDiS (RTI2018-096402-B-I00). M.G.-B. was supported by the Grant PRE2019-090618 from the Spanish Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic Digital.CSIC (Spanish National Research Council) Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 128 24 |
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Digital.CSIC (Spanish National Research Council) |
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ftcsic |
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description |
The North Atlantic eddy-driven jet (EDJ) is the main driver of winter weather in Europe and has often been described by its latitude or strength. Here, we show that the influence of the EDJ on European winter temperature extremes can be better characterized by a multiparametric perspective that accounts for additional aspects of the EDJ structure (tilt, zonal elongation, etc.). We identify four regions where extreme temperatures are distinctly associated with the EDJ: Scandinavia, Central Europe, Eastern Europe, and Western Mediterranean (WMED). Overall, the anomalous horizontal advection induced by blockings during cold spells and enhanced westerlies during warm events is the main mechanism leading to extreme event occurrence. However, diabatic processes play an important role in WMED region. Both processes generate asymmetric effects in minimum and maximum temperatures contributing to higher intensities of cold than warm events. These extreme events are associated with different EDJ configurations, which typically involve perturbed EDJs during cold spells and strong tilted EDJs during warm events, but with important variations depending on the region. In almost every region, the combined effects of more than two EDJ parameters yield significant increases in the probability of cold and warm events, suggesting an oversimplification of traditional approaches based on a single EDJ parameter. We show, using logistic regression models, that, although important, latitude and intensity are often unable to discriminate unequivocally the region of extreme event occurrence, and in some regions, they do not drive the largest changes in the odds of extremes. This research was funded by the project JeDiS (RTI2018-096402-B-I00). M.G.-B. was supported by the Grant PRE2019-090618 from the Spanish Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación. |
author2 |
Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación (España) |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
García-Burgos M. Ayarzagüena B. Barriopedro, David García-Herrera R. |
spellingShingle |
García-Burgos M. Ayarzagüena B. Barriopedro, David García-Herrera R. Jet configurations leading to extreme winter temperatures over Europe |
author_facet |
García-Burgos M. Ayarzagüena B. Barriopedro, David García-Herrera R. |
author_sort |
García-Burgos M. |
title |
Jet configurations leading to extreme winter temperatures over Europe |
title_short |
Jet configurations leading to extreme winter temperatures over Europe |
title_full |
Jet configurations leading to extreme winter temperatures over Europe |
title_fullStr |
Jet configurations leading to extreme winter temperatures over Europe |
title_full_unstemmed |
Jet configurations leading to extreme winter temperatures over Europe |
title_sort |
jet configurations leading to extreme winter temperatures over europe |
publisher |
No Consta |
publishDate |
2023 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/10261/342244 https://doi.org/10.1029/2023JD039304 |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_relation |
#PLACEHOLDER_PARENT_METADATA_VALUE# info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/AEI/Plan Estatal de Investigación Científica y Técnica y de Innovación 2017-2020/RTI2018-096402-B-I00/ES/DINAMICA DEL JET Y EXTREMOS/ Publisher's version http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2023JD039304 Sí doi:10.1029/2023JD039304 issn: 2169-897X JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES 128 (2023) http://hdl.handle.net/10261/342244 |
op_rights |
open |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1029/2023JD039304 |
container_title |
Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres |
container_volume |
128 |
container_issue |
24 |
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1790604449123663872 |