The contribution of large-scale atmospheric circulation to variations of observed near-surface wind speed across Sweden since 1926
This study investigates the centennial-scale (i.e., since 1926) variability of observed near-surface wind speed across Sweden. Results show that wind speed underwent various phases of change during 1926–2019, i.e., (a) a clear slowdown during 1926–1960; (b) a stabilization from 1960 to 1990; (c) ano...
Published in: | Climatic Change |
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Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , |
Other Authors: | , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | unknown |
Published: |
Springer
2023
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Subjects: | |
Online Access: | http://hdl.handle.net/10261/339954 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-023-03525-0 |
Summary: | This study investigates the centennial-scale (i.e., since 1926) variability of observed near-surface wind speed across Sweden. Results show that wind speed underwent various phases of change during 1926–2019, i.e., (a) a clear slowdown during 1926–1960; (b) a stabilization from 1960 to 1990; (c) another clear slowdown during 1990–2003; (d) a slight recovery/stabilization period for 2003–2014, which may continue with a possible new slowdown. Furthermore, the performance of three reanalysis products in representing past wind variations is evaluated. The observed low-frequency variability is properly simulated by the selected reanalyses and is linked to the variations of different large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns (e.g., the North Atlantic Oscillation). However, the evident periods of decreasing trend during 1926–1960 and 1990–2003, which drive most of the stilling in the last century, are missing in the reanalyses and cannot be realistically modeled through multiple linear regression by only using indexes of atmospheric circulation. Therefore, this study reveals that changes in large-scale atmospheric circulation mainly drive the low-frequency variability of observed near-surface wind speed, while other factors (e.g., changes in surface roughness) are crucial for explaining the periods of strong terrestrial stilling across Sweden. Open access funding provided by University of Gothenburg. This study was funded by Swedish FORMAS (2019–00509, 2019-01520) and VR (2017–03780, 2019–03954), as well as the Swedish National Strategical Research Programs BECC and MERGE. Lorenzo Minola is founded by the International Postdoc grant from the Swedish Research Council (2021–00444). |
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