Applying ensemble ecosystem model projections to future-proof marine conservation planning in the Northwest Atlantic Ocean

• Published in: FACETS
• Main Authors: Bryndum‐Buchholz, Andrea, Blanchard, Julia L., Coll, Marta, Pontavice, Hubert du, Everett, Jason D., Guiet, Jerome, Heneghan, Ryan F., Maury, Olivier, Novaglio, Camilla, Palacios-Abrantes, Juliano, Petrik, Colleen M., Tittensor, Derek P., Lotze, Heike K.
• Other Authors: Canada First Research Excellence Fund, Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (US), Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación (España), Agencia Estatal de Investigación (España), European Commission
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: Canadian Science Publishing 2023
• Subjects: Climate change impacts; Ensemble modelling; Marine biomass projections; MPAs; OECMs; Atlantic Canada; Conserve and sustainably use the oceans; seas and marine resources for sustainable development; Canada; Northwest Atlantic
• Online Access: http://hdl.handle.net/10261/338481; https://doi.org/10.1139/facets-2023-0024

16 pages, 7 figures, supplementary material https://doi.org/10.1139/facets-2023-0024.-- Data availability: All standardized forcing variables from the ESMs are available at https://doi.org/10.48364/ISIMIP.575744.1; all outputs from the MEMs are available via ISIMIP (https://www.isimip.org/gettingstarted/data-access/) Climate change is altering marine ecosystems across the globe and is projected to do so for centuries to come. Marine conservation agencies can use short- and long-term projections of species-specific or ecosystem-level climate responses to inform marine conservation planning. Yet, integration of climate change adaptation, mitigation, and resilience into marine conservation planning is limited. We analysed future trajectories of climate change impacts on total consumer biomass and six key physical and biogeochemical drivers across the Northwest Atlantic Ocean to evaluate the consequences for Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) and Other Effective area-based Conservation Measures (OECMs) in Atlantic Canada. We identified climate change hotspots and refugia, where the environmental drivers are projected to change most or remain close to their current state, respectively, by mid- and end-century. We used standardized outputs from the Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project and the 6th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. Our analysis revealed that, currently, no existing marine conservation areas in Atlantic Canada overlap with identified climate refugia. Most (75%) established MPAs and more than one-third (39%) of the established OECMs lie within cumulative climate hotspots. Our results provide important long-term context for adaptation and future-proofing spatial marine conservation planning in Canada and the Northwest Atlantic region ABB acknowledges financial support from the MEOPAR Postdoctoral Fellowship Award 2020–2021, 2021–2022, and the Ocean Frontier Institute Modules G and H funded by the Canada First Research Excellence Fund. HKL acknowledges funding from the Natural ...