Drivers of mangrove vulnerability and resilience to tropical cyclones in the North Atlantic Basin

The North Atlantic Basin (NAB) has seen an increase in the frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones since the 1980s, with record-breaking seasons in 2017 and 2020. However, little is known about how coastal ecosystems, particularly mangroves in the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean, respond to th...

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Published in:Science of The Total Environment
Main Authors: Amaral, Cibele, Poulter, Benjamin, Lagomasino, David, Fatoyinbo, Temilola, Taillie, Paul, Lizcano, Gil, Canty, Steven, Herrera Sikveira, Jorge Alfredo, Teutli-Hernández, Claudia, Cifuentes-Jara, Miguel, Patrick Charles, Sean, Shantal Moreno, Claudia, González-Trujillo, Juan David, Román-Cuesta, Rosa María
Other Authors: Fondation BNP Paribas
Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
Language:English
Published: Elsevier 2023
Subjects:
Online Access:http://hdl.handle.net/10261/334589
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.165413
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spelling ftcsic:oai:digital.csic.es:10261/334589 2024-02-11T10:06:22+01:00 Drivers of mangrove vulnerability and resilience to tropical cyclones in the North Atlantic Basin Amaral, Cibele Poulter, Benjamin Lagomasino, David Fatoyinbo, Temilola Taillie, Paul Lizcano, Gil Canty, Steven Herrera Sikveira, Jorge Alfredo Teutli-Hernández, Claudia Cifuentes-Jara, Miguel Patrick Charles, Sean Shantal Moreno, Claudia González-Trujillo, Juan David Román-Cuesta, Rosa María Fondation BNP Paribas 2023-11-10 http://hdl.handle.net/10261/334589 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.165413 en eng Elsevier Publisher's version https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.165413 Sí Science of the Total Environment 898: 165413 (2023) 0048-9697 http://hdl.handle.net/10261/334589 doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.165413 1879-1026 open Remote sensing Machine learning Coastal ecosystem Coastal development DroughtNature-based solutions artículo 2023 ftcsic https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.165413 2024-01-16T11:52:36Z The North Atlantic Basin (NAB) has seen an increase in the frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones since the 1980s, with record-breaking seasons in 2017 and 2020. However, little is known about how coastal ecosystems, particularly mangroves in the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean, respond to these new “climate normals” at regional and subregional scales. Wind speed, rainfall, pre-cyclone forest height, and hydro-geomorphology are known to influence mangrove damage and recovery following cyclones in the NAB. However, previous studies have focused on local-scale responses and individual cyclonic events. Here, we analyze 25 years (1996–2020) of mangrove vulnerability (damage after a cyclone) and 24 years (1996–2019) of short-term resilience (recovery after damage) for the NAB and subregions, using multi-annual, remote sensing-derived databases. We used machine learning to characterize the influence of 22 potential variables on mangrove responses, including human development and long-term climate trends. Our results document variability in the rates and drivers of mangrove vulnerability and resilience, highlighting hotspots of cyclone impacts, mangrove damage, and loss of resilience. Cyclone characteristics mainly drove vulnerability at the regional level. In contrast, resilience was driven by site-specific conditions, including long-term climate trends, pre-cyclone forest structure, soil organic carbon stock, and coastal development (i.e., proximity to human infrastructure). Coastal development is associated with both vulnerability and resilience at the subregional level. Further, we highlight that loss of resilience occurs mostly in areas experiencing long-term drought across the NAB. The impacts of increasing cyclone activity on mangroves and their coastal protection service must be framed in the context of compound climate change effects and continued coastal development. Our work offers descriptive and spatial information to support the restoration and adaptive management of NAB mangroves, which need ... Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic Digital.CSIC (Spanish National Research Council) Science of The Total Environment 898 165413
institution Open Polar
collection Digital.CSIC (Spanish National Research Council)
op_collection_id ftcsic
language English
topic Remote sensing
Machine learning
Coastal ecosystem
Coastal development
DroughtNature-based solutions
spellingShingle Remote sensing
Machine learning
Coastal ecosystem
Coastal development
DroughtNature-based solutions
Amaral, Cibele
Poulter, Benjamin
Lagomasino, David
Fatoyinbo, Temilola
Taillie, Paul
Lizcano, Gil
Canty, Steven
Herrera Sikveira, Jorge Alfredo
Teutli-Hernández, Claudia
Cifuentes-Jara, Miguel
Patrick Charles, Sean
Shantal Moreno, Claudia
González-Trujillo, Juan David
Román-Cuesta, Rosa María
Drivers of mangrove vulnerability and resilience to tropical cyclones in the North Atlantic Basin
topic_facet Remote sensing
Machine learning
Coastal ecosystem
Coastal development
DroughtNature-based solutions
description The North Atlantic Basin (NAB) has seen an increase in the frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones since the 1980s, with record-breaking seasons in 2017 and 2020. However, little is known about how coastal ecosystems, particularly mangroves in the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean, respond to these new “climate normals” at regional and subregional scales. Wind speed, rainfall, pre-cyclone forest height, and hydro-geomorphology are known to influence mangrove damage and recovery following cyclones in the NAB. However, previous studies have focused on local-scale responses and individual cyclonic events. Here, we analyze 25 years (1996–2020) of mangrove vulnerability (damage after a cyclone) and 24 years (1996–2019) of short-term resilience (recovery after damage) for the NAB and subregions, using multi-annual, remote sensing-derived databases. We used machine learning to characterize the influence of 22 potential variables on mangrove responses, including human development and long-term climate trends. Our results document variability in the rates and drivers of mangrove vulnerability and resilience, highlighting hotspots of cyclone impacts, mangrove damage, and loss of resilience. Cyclone characteristics mainly drove vulnerability at the regional level. In contrast, resilience was driven by site-specific conditions, including long-term climate trends, pre-cyclone forest structure, soil organic carbon stock, and coastal development (i.e., proximity to human infrastructure). Coastal development is associated with both vulnerability and resilience at the subregional level. Further, we highlight that loss of resilience occurs mostly in areas experiencing long-term drought across the NAB. The impacts of increasing cyclone activity on mangroves and their coastal protection service must be framed in the context of compound climate change effects and continued coastal development. Our work offers descriptive and spatial information to support the restoration and adaptive management of NAB mangroves, which need ...
author2 Fondation BNP Paribas
format Article in Journal/Newspaper
author Amaral, Cibele
Poulter, Benjamin
Lagomasino, David
Fatoyinbo, Temilola
Taillie, Paul
Lizcano, Gil
Canty, Steven
Herrera Sikveira, Jorge Alfredo
Teutli-Hernández, Claudia
Cifuentes-Jara, Miguel
Patrick Charles, Sean
Shantal Moreno, Claudia
González-Trujillo, Juan David
Román-Cuesta, Rosa María
author_facet Amaral, Cibele
Poulter, Benjamin
Lagomasino, David
Fatoyinbo, Temilola
Taillie, Paul
Lizcano, Gil
Canty, Steven
Herrera Sikveira, Jorge Alfredo
Teutli-Hernández, Claudia
Cifuentes-Jara, Miguel
Patrick Charles, Sean
Shantal Moreno, Claudia
González-Trujillo, Juan David
Román-Cuesta, Rosa María
author_sort Amaral, Cibele
title Drivers of mangrove vulnerability and resilience to tropical cyclones in the North Atlantic Basin
title_short Drivers of mangrove vulnerability and resilience to tropical cyclones in the North Atlantic Basin
title_full Drivers of mangrove vulnerability and resilience to tropical cyclones in the North Atlantic Basin
title_fullStr Drivers of mangrove vulnerability and resilience to tropical cyclones in the North Atlantic Basin
title_full_unstemmed Drivers of mangrove vulnerability and resilience to tropical cyclones in the North Atlantic Basin
title_sort drivers of mangrove vulnerability and resilience to tropical cyclones in the north atlantic basin
publisher Elsevier
publishDate 2023
url http://hdl.handle.net/10261/334589
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.165413
genre North Atlantic
genre_facet North Atlantic
op_relation Publisher's version
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.165413

Science of the Total Environment 898: 165413 (2023)
0048-9697
http://hdl.handle.net/10261/334589
doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.165413
1879-1026
op_rights open
op_doi https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.165413
container_title Science of The Total Environment
container_volume 898
container_start_page 165413
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