Cycles, trends, and residual variation in the Iberian sardine (Sardina pilchardus) recruitment series, and their relationship with the environment
Recruitment variability is an important component of the dynamics of Iberian sardine ( Sardine pilchardus ). Since 2006, poor recruit- ment has led to a decrease in stock biomass, the latest in a series of such crises for sardine fisheries. Understanding the mechanisms behind recruitment fluctuation...
Published in: | ICES Journal of Marine Science |
---|---|
Main Authors: | , , , , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | unknown |
Published: |
2012
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | http://hdl.handle.net/10508/8140 http://hdl.handle.net/10261/328392 https://doi.org/10.1093/icesjms/fsr186 |
id |
ftcsic:oai:digital.csic.es:10261/328392 |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
spelling |
ftcsic:oai:digital.csic.es:10261/328392 2024-02-11T10:07:03+01:00 Cycles, trends, and residual variation in the Iberian sardine (Sardina pilchardus) recruitment series, and their relationship with the environment Santos, María Begoña González-Quirós, Rafael Riveiro, Isabel Cabanas-López, José Manuel Porteiro-Lago, Carmen Pierce, Graham John Atlantic Ocean Eastern Atlantic Northeast Atlantic Iberian waters 2012 http://hdl.handle.net/10508/8140 http://hdl.handle.net/10261/328392 https://doi.org/10.1093/icesjms/fsr186 unknown Centro Oceanográfico de Vigo http://icesjms.oxfordjournals.org/content/69/5/739 ICES Journal Of Marine Science, 69 (5). 2011: 739-750 http://hdl.handle.net/10508/8140 http://hdl.handle.net/10261/328392 doi:10.1093/icesjms/fsr186 3396 open Pesquerías Environmental drivers Centro Oceanográfico de Vigo Iberia Recruitment Sardine Time-series artículo http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501 2012 ftcsic https://doi.org/10.1093/icesjms/fsr186 2024-01-16T11:49:20Z Recruitment variability is an important component of the dynamics of Iberian sardine ( Sardine pilchardus ). Since 2006, poor recruit- ment has led to a decrease in stock biomass, the latest in a series of such crises for sardine fisheries. Understanding the mechanisms behind recruitment fluctuations has been the objective of many previous studies, and various relationships between recruitment and environmental variables have been proposed. However, such studies face several analytical challenges, including short time-series and autocorrelated data. A new analysis of empirical relationships with environmental series is presented, using statistical methods designed to cope with these issues, including dynamic factor analysis, generalized additive models, and mixed models. Relationships are identified between recruitment and global (number of sunspots), regional (NAO Autumn ), and local [winter wind strength, sea surface temperature (SST), and upwelling] environmental variables. Separating these series into trend and noise compo- nents permitted further investigation of the nature of the relationships. Whereas the other three environmental variables were related to the trend in recruitment, SST was related to residual variation around the trend, providing stronger evidence for a causal link, pos- sible mechanisms for which are discussed. After the removal of trend and cyclic components, residual variation in recruitment is also weakly related to the previous year’s spawning-stock biomass. Sí Article in Journal/Newspaper Northeast Atlantic Digital.CSIC (Spanish National Research Council) ICES Journal of Marine Science 69 5 739 750 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Digital.CSIC (Spanish National Research Council) |
op_collection_id |
ftcsic |
language |
unknown |
topic |
Pesquerías Environmental drivers Centro Oceanográfico de Vigo Iberia Recruitment Sardine Time-series |
spellingShingle |
Pesquerías Environmental drivers Centro Oceanográfico de Vigo Iberia Recruitment Sardine Time-series Santos, María Begoña González-Quirós, Rafael Riveiro, Isabel Cabanas-López, José Manuel Porteiro-Lago, Carmen Pierce, Graham John Cycles, trends, and residual variation in the Iberian sardine (Sardina pilchardus) recruitment series, and their relationship with the environment |
topic_facet |
Pesquerías Environmental drivers Centro Oceanográfico de Vigo Iberia Recruitment Sardine Time-series |
description |
Recruitment variability is an important component of the dynamics of Iberian sardine ( Sardine pilchardus ). Since 2006, poor recruit- ment has led to a decrease in stock biomass, the latest in a series of such crises for sardine fisheries. Understanding the mechanisms behind recruitment fluctuations has been the objective of many previous studies, and various relationships between recruitment and environmental variables have been proposed. However, such studies face several analytical challenges, including short time-series and autocorrelated data. A new analysis of empirical relationships with environmental series is presented, using statistical methods designed to cope with these issues, including dynamic factor analysis, generalized additive models, and mixed models. Relationships are identified between recruitment and global (number of sunspots), regional (NAO Autumn ), and local [winter wind strength, sea surface temperature (SST), and upwelling] environmental variables. Separating these series into trend and noise compo- nents permitted further investigation of the nature of the relationships. Whereas the other three environmental variables were related to the trend in recruitment, SST was related to residual variation around the trend, providing stronger evidence for a causal link, pos- sible mechanisms for which are discussed. After the removal of trend and cyclic components, residual variation in recruitment is also weakly related to the previous year’s spawning-stock biomass. Sí |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Santos, María Begoña González-Quirós, Rafael Riveiro, Isabel Cabanas-López, José Manuel Porteiro-Lago, Carmen Pierce, Graham John |
author_facet |
Santos, María Begoña González-Quirós, Rafael Riveiro, Isabel Cabanas-López, José Manuel Porteiro-Lago, Carmen Pierce, Graham John |
author_sort |
Santos, María Begoña |
title |
Cycles, trends, and residual variation in the Iberian sardine (Sardina pilchardus) recruitment series, and their relationship with the environment |
title_short |
Cycles, trends, and residual variation in the Iberian sardine (Sardina pilchardus) recruitment series, and their relationship with the environment |
title_full |
Cycles, trends, and residual variation in the Iberian sardine (Sardina pilchardus) recruitment series, and their relationship with the environment |
title_fullStr |
Cycles, trends, and residual variation in the Iberian sardine (Sardina pilchardus) recruitment series, and their relationship with the environment |
title_full_unstemmed |
Cycles, trends, and residual variation in the Iberian sardine (Sardina pilchardus) recruitment series, and their relationship with the environment |
title_sort |
cycles, trends, and residual variation in the iberian sardine (sardina pilchardus) recruitment series, and their relationship with the environment |
publishDate |
2012 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/10508/8140 http://hdl.handle.net/10261/328392 https://doi.org/10.1093/icesjms/fsr186 |
op_coverage |
Atlantic Ocean Eastern Atlantic Northeast Atlantic Iberian waters |
genre |
Northeast Atlantic |
genre_facet |
Northeast Atlantic |
op_relation |
Centro Oceanográfico de Vigo http://icesjms.oxfordjournals.org/content/69/5/739 ICES Journal Of Marine Science, 69 (5). 2011: 739-750 http://hdl.handle.net/10508/8140 http://hdl.handle.net/10261/328392 doi:10.1093/icesjms/fsr186 3396 |
op_rights |
open |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1093/icesjms/fsr186 |
container_title |
ICES Journal of Marine Science |
container_volume |
69 |
container_issue |
5 |
container_start_page |
739 |
op_container_end_page |
750 |
_version_ |
1790605156159586304 |