A combination of hydrodynamical and statistical modeling reveals non-stationary climate effects on fish larvae distributions

Biological processes and physical oceanography are often integrated in numerical modelling of marine fish larvae, but rarely in statistical analyses of spatio-temporal observation data. Here, we examine the relative contribution of inter-annual variability in spawner distribution, advection by ocean...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences
Main Authors: Hidalgo, Manuel, Gusdal, Yvonne, Dingsør, Gjert Endre, Hjermann, D.Ø., Ottersen, Geir, Stige, Leif Christian, Melsom, Arne, Stenseth, Nils Christian
Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
Language:English
Published: 2012
Subjects:
Centro Oceanográfico de Baleares
ocean advection
Pesquerías
particle-tracking models
spatially explicit analyses
fish larvae distribution
spawning distribution
ecological climate effects
Barents Sea
Lofoten
North Atlantic
North Atlantic oscillation
Online Access:http://hdl.handle.net/10508/8467
http://hdl.handle.net/10261/323843
https://doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2011.0750
Description
Summary:Biological processes and physical oceanography are often integrated in numerical modelling of marine fish larvae, but rarely in statistical analyses of spatio-temporal observation data. Here, we examine the relative contribution of inter-annual variability in spawner distribution, advection by ocean currents, hydrography and climate in modifying observed distribution patterns of cod larvae in the Lofoten–Barents Sea. By integrating predictions from a particle-tracking model into a spatially explicit statistical analysis, the effects of advection and the timing and locations of spawning are accounted for. The analysis also includes other environmental factors: temperature, salinity, a convergence index and a climate threshold determined by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). We found that the spatial pattern of larvae changed over the two climate periods, being more upstream in low NAO years. We also demonstrate that spawning distribution and ocean circulation are the main factors shaping this distribution, while temperature effects are different between climate periods, probably due to a different spatial overlap of the fish larvae and their prey, and the consequent effect on the spatial pattern of larval survival. Our new methodological approach combines numerical and statistical modelling to draw robust inferences from observed distributions and will be of general interest for studies of many marine fish species.

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