Using distribution models to test alternative hypotheses about a species' environmental limits and recovery prospects
Distribution models are commonly used to generalise across species distributions, to project future potential range changes, and to identify potential areas for species reintroductions and recovery plans. Building several models that incorporate different potential causal factors is a useful way of...
Published in: | Biological Conservation |
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Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , |
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Language: | English |
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Online Access: | http://hdl.handle.net/10261/284242 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biocon.2008.10.036 https://doi.org/10.13039/501100000038 |
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ftcsic:oai:digital.csic.es:10261/284242 2024-02-11T10:02:56+01:00 Using distribution models to test alternative hypotheses about a species' environmental limits and recovery prospects Anderson, Barbara J. Arroyo, Beatriz Collingham, Yvonne C. Etheridge,Brian Fernández-de-Simón, Javier Gillings, Simon Gregory, Richard D. Leckie, Fiona Sim, Innes M.W. Thomas, Chris D. Travis, Justin Redpath, Steve Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada 2009 application/pdf http://hdl.handle.net/10261/284242 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biocon.2008.10.036 https://doi.org/10.13039/501100000038 en eng Elsevier https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biocon.2008.10.036 Sí Biological Conservation 142(3): 488-499 (2009) 0006-3207 http://hdl.handle.net/10261/284242 doi:10.1016/j.biocon.2008.10.036 http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100000038 none artículo 2009 ftcsic https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biocon.2008.10.03610.13039/501100000038 2024-01-16T11:31:40Z Distribution models are commonly used to generalise across species distributions, to project future potential range changes, and to identify potential areas for species reintroductions and recovery plans. Building several models that incorporate different potential causal factors is a useful way of formalising alternative hypotheses. We developed a series of models to test hypotheses about the factors influencing the distribution of a species of conservation importance – the hen harrier Circus cyaneus. A climate-based model using continental distribution data was consistent with the continental distribution and observational studies in Britain. According to the climate-model the parts of Britain occupied by the hen harrier are the least climatically suitable. Habitat-based models using detailed distribution data from seven Scottish areas explained the recent British distribution well, with birds largely confined to heather dominated areas. These patterns were inconsistent with historical data on the species’ distribution, its habitat use in other parts of its range and with the climate-based model. Our burn intensity index of gamekeeper activity was highly correlated with climatic suitability within the best 25% of 10 km squares by modelled habitat suitability, negatively associated with the productivity data and associated with a decrease in abundances between 1998 and 2004. Gamekeeper activity may be keeping hen harriers out of the most climatically suitable areas with habitat similar to that which they currently occupy within Britain and or keeping the population numbers too low and isolated for the natural re-expansion of the species into parts of the range where it was historically extirpated. BJA was funded by and the work was made possible by UKPopNet (NERC R8-H12-01 and English Nature). Peer reviewed Article in Journal/Newspaper Circus cyaneus Digital.CSIC (Spanish National Research Council) Biological Conservation 142 3 488 499 |
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Open Polar |
collection |
Digital.CSIC (Spanish National Research Council) |
op_collection_id |
ftcsic |
language |
English |
description |
Distribution models are commonly used to generalise across species distributions, to project future potential range changes, and to identify potential areas for species reintroductions and recovery plans. Building several models that incorporate different potential causal factors is a useful way of formalising alternative hypotheses. We developed a series of models to test hypotheses about the factors influencing the distribution of a species of conservation importance – the hen harrier Circus cyaneus. A climate-based model using continental distribution data was consistent with the continental distribution and observational studies in Britain. According to the climate-model the parts of Britain occupied by the hen harrier are the least climatically suitable. Habitat-based models using detailed distribution data from seven Scottish areas explained the recent British distribution well, with birds largely confined to heather dominated areas. These patterns were inconsistent with historical data on the species’ distribution, its habitat use in other parts of its range and with the climate-based model. Our burn intensity index of gamekeeper activity was highly correlated with climatic suitability within the best 25% of 10 km squares by modelled habitat suitability, negatively associated with the productivity data and associated with a decrease in abundances between 1998 and 2004. Gamekeeper activity may be keeping hen harriers out of the most climatically suitable areas with habitat similar to that which they currently occupy within Britain and or keeping the population numbers too low and isolated for the natural re-expansion of the species into parts of the range where it was historically extirpated. BJA was funded by and the work was made possible by UKPopNet (NERC R8-H12-01 and English Nature). Peer reviewed |
author2 |
Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Anderson, Barbara J. Arroyo, Beatriz Collingham, Yvonne C. Etheridge,Brian Fernández-de-Simón, Javier Gillings, Simon Gregory, Richard D. Leckie, Fiona Sim, Innes M.W. Thomas, Chris D. Travis, Justin Redpath, Steve |
spellingShingle |
Anderson, Barbara J. Arroyo, Beatriz Collingham, Yvonne C. Etheridge,Brian Fernández-de-Simón, Javier Gillings, Simon Gregory, Richard D. Leckie, Fiona Sim, Innes M.W. Thomas, Chris D. Travis, Justin Redpath, Steve Using distribution models to test alternative hypotheses about a species' environmental limits and recovery prospects |
author_facet |
Anderson, Barbara J. Arroyo, Beatriz Collingham, Yvonne C. Etheridge,Brian Fernández-de-Simón, Javier Gillings, Simon Gregory, Richard D. Leckie, Fiona Sim, Innes M.W. Thomas, Chris D. Travis, Justin Redpath, Steve |
author_sort |
Anderson, Barbara J. |
title |
Using distribution models to test alternative hypotheses about a species' environmental limits and recovery prospects |
title_short |
Using distribution models to test alternative hypotheses about a species' environmental limits and recovery prospects |
title_full |
Using distribution models to test alternative hypotheses about a species' environmental limits and recovery prospects |
title_fullStr |
Using distribution models to test alternative hypotheses about a species' environmental limits and recovery prospects |
title_full_unstemmed |
Using distribution models to test alternative hypotheses about a species' environmental limits and recovery prospects |
title_sort |
using distribution models to test alternative hypotheses about a species' environmental limits and recovery prospects |
publisher |
Elsevier |
publishDate |
2009 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/10261/284242 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biocon.2008.10.036 https://doi.org/10.13039/501100000038 |
genre |
Circus cyaneus |
genre_facet |
Circus cyaneus |
op_relation |
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biocon.2008.10.036 Sí Biological Conservation 142(3): 488-499 (2009) 0006-3207 http://hdl.handle.net/10261/284242 doi:10.1016/j.biocon.2008.10.036 http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100000038 |
op_rights |
none |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biocon.2008.10.03610.13039/501100000038 |
container_title |
Biological Conservation |
container_volume |
142 |
container_issue |
3 |
container_start_page |
488 |
op_container_end_page |
499 |
_version_ |
1790599036111159296 |