Modeling climate change impacts on the distribution of an endangered brown bear population in its critical habitat in Iran
Climate change is one of the major challenges to the current conservation of biodiversity. Here, by using the brown bear, Ursus arctos, in the southernmost limit of its global distribution as a model species, we assessed the impact of climate change on the species distribution in western Iran. The m...
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Online Access: | http://hdl.handle.net/10261/279455 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.155753 https://doi.org/10.13039/501100011033 https://doi.org/10.13039/501100000780 https://doi.org/10.13039/501100004837 |
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ftcsic:oai:digital.csic.es:10261/279455 2024-02-11T10:09:21+01:00 Modeling climate change impacts on the distribution of an endangered brown bear population in its critical habitat in Iran Reza Ashrafzadeh, Mohammad Khosravi, Rasoul Mohammadi, Alireza Naghipour, Asghar Khoshnamvand, Hadi Haidarian, Maryam Penteriani, Vincenzo Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación (España) Agencia Estatal de Investigación (España) European Commission 2022-09-01 http://hdl.handle.net/10261/279455 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.155753 https://doi.org/10.13039/501100011033 https://doi.org/10.13039/501100000780 https://doi.org/10.13039/501100004837 unknown Elsevier #PLACEHOLDER_PARENT_METADATA_VALUE# info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/MICINN//PID2020-114181GB-I00CGL2017-82782-P http://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.155753 Sí doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.155753 issn: 1879-1026 Science of the Total Environment 837: 155753 (2022) http://hdl.handle.net/10261/279455 http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100011033 http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100000780 http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100004837 none Large carnivores Umbrella species Changing climate Conservation network Habitat connectivity artículo 2022 ftcsic https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.15575310.13039/50110001103310.13039/50110000078010.13039/501100004837 2024-01-16T11:29:06Z Climate change is one of the major challenges to the current conservation of biodiversity. Here, by using the brown bear, Ursus arctos, in the southernmost limit of its global distribution as a model species, we assessed the impact of climate change on the species distribution in western Iran. The mountainous forests of Iran are inhabited by small and isolated populations of brown bears that are prone to extinction in the near future. We modeled the potential impact of climate change on brown bear distribution and habitat connectivity by the years 2050 and 2070 under four representative concentration pathways (RCPs) of two general circulation models (GCMs): BCC-CSM1–1 and MRI-CGCM3. Our projections revealed that the current species' range, which encompasses 6749.8 km2 (40.8%) of the landscape, will decline by 10% (2050: RCP2.6, MRI-CGCM3) to 45% (2070: RCP8.5, BCC-CSM1–1). About 1850 km2 (27.4%) of the current range is covered by a network of conservation (CAs) and no-hunting (NHAs) areas which are predicted to decline by 0.64% (2050: RCP2.6, MRI-CGCM3) to 15.56% (2070: RCP8.5, BCC-CSM1–1) due to climate change. The loss of suitable habitats falling within the network of CAs and NHAs is a conservation challenge for brown bears because it may lead to bears moving outside the CAs and NHAs and result in subsequent increases in the levels of bear–human conflict. Thus, re-evaluation of the network of CAs and NHAs, establishing more protected areas in suitable landscapes, and conserving vital linkages between habitat patches under future climate change scenarios are crucial strategies to conserve and manage endangered populations of the brown bear. VP was financially supported by the Excellence Project PID2020-114181GB-I00CGL2017-82782-P financed by the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation, the Agencia Estatal de Investigación (AEI), and the Fondo Europeo de Desarrollo Regional (FEDER, EU). Article in Journal/Newspaper Ursus arctos Digital.CSIC (Spanish National Research Council) Science of The Total Environment 837 155753 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Digital.CSIC (Spanish National Research Council) |
op_collection_id |
ftcsic |
language |
unknown |
topic |
Large carnivores Umbrella species Changing climate Conservation network Habitat connectivity |
spellingShingle |
Large carnivores Umbrella species Changing climate Conservation network Habitat connectivity Reza Ashrafzadeh, Mohammad Khosravi, Rasoul Mohammadi, Alireza Naghipour, Asghar Khoshnamvand, Hadi Haidarian, Maryam Penteriani, Vincenzo Modeling climate change impacts on the distribution of an endangered brown bear population in its critical habitat in Iran |
topic_facet |
Large carnivores Umbrella species Changing climate Conservation network Habitat connectivity |
description |
Climate change is one of the major challenges to the current conservation of biodiversity. Here, by using the brown bear, Ursus arctos, in the southernmost limit of its global distribution as a model species, we assessed the impact of climate change on the species distribution in western Iran. The mountainous forests of Iran are inhabited by small and isolated populations of brown bears that are prone to extinction in the near future. We modeled the potential impact of climate change on brown bear distribution and habitat connectivity by the years 2050 and 2070 under four representative concentration pathways (RCPs) of two general circulation models (GCMs): BCC-CSM1–1 and MRI-CGCM3. Our projections revealed that the current species' range, which encompasses 6749.8 km2 (40.8%) of the landscape, will decline by 10% (2050: RCP2.6, MRI-CGCM3) to 45% (2070: RCP8.5, BCC-CSM1–1). About 1850 km2 (27.4%) of the current range is covered by a network of conservation (CAs) and no-hunting (NHAs) areas which are predicted to decline by 0.64% (2050: RCP2.6, MRI-CGCM3) to 15.56% (2070: RCP8.5, BCC-CSM1–1) due to climate change. The loss of suitable habitats falling within the network of CAs and NHAs is a conservation challenge for brown bears because it may lead to bears moving outside the CAs and NHAs and result in subsequent increases in the levels of bear–human conflict. Thus, re-evaluation of the network of CAs and NHAs, establishing more protected areas in suitable landscapes, and conserving vital linkages between habitat patches under future climate change scenarios are crucial strategies to conserve and manage endangered populations of the brown bear. VP was financially supported by the Excellence Project PID2020-114181GB-I00CGL2017-82782-P financed by the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation, the Agencia Estatal de Investigación (AEI), and the Fondo Europeo de Desarrollo Regional (FEDER, EU). |
author2 |
Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación (España) Agencia Estatal de Investigación (España) European Commission |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Reza Ashrafzadeh, Mohammad Khosravi, Rasoul Mohammadi, Alireza Naghipour, Asghar Khoshnamvand, Hadi Haidarian, Maryam Penteriani, Vincenzo |
author_facet |
Reza Ashrafzadeh, Mohammad Khosravi, Rasoul Mohammadi, Alireza Naghipour, Asghar Khoshnamvand, Hadi Haidarian, Maryam Penteriani, Vincenzo |
author_sort |
Reza Ashrafzadeh, Mohammad |
title |
Modeling climate change impacts on the distribution of an endangered brown bear population in its critical habitat in Iran |
title_short |
Modeling climate change impacts on the distribution of an endangered brown bear population in its critical habitat in Iran |
title_full |
Modeling climate change impacts on the distribution of an endangered brown bear population in its critical habitat in Iran |
title_fullStr |
Modeling climate change impacts on the distribution of an endangered brown bear population in its critical habitat in Iran |
title_full_unstemmed |
Modeling climate change impacts on the distribution of an endangered brown bear population in its critical habitat in Iran |
title_sort |
modeling climate change impacts on the distribution of an endangered brown bear population in its critical habitat in iran |
publisher |
Elsevier |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/10261/279455 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.155753 https://doi.org/10.13039/501100011033 https://doi.org/10.13039/501100000780 https://doi.org/10.13039/501100004837 |
genre |
Ursus arctos |
genre_facet |
Ursus arctos |
op_relation |
#PLACEHOLDER_PARENT_METADATA_VALUE# info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/MICINN//PID2020-114181GB-I00CGL2017-82782-P http://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.155753 Sí doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.155753 issn: 1879-1026 Science of the Total Environment 837: 155753 (2022) http://hdl.handle.net/10261/279455 http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100011033 http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100000780 http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100004837 |
op_rights |
none |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.15575310.13039/50110001103310.13039/50110000078010.13039/501100004837 |
container_title |
Science of The Total Environment |
container_volume |
837 |
container_start_page |
155753 |
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1790609203859030016 |