Phenological shifts of abiotic events, producers and consumers across a continent
Ongoing climate change can shift organism phenology in ways that vary depending on species, habitats and climate factors studied. To probe for large-scale patterns in associated phenological change, we use 70,709 observations from six decades of systematic monitoring across the former Union of Sovie...
Published in: | Nature Climate Change |
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Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
Other Authors: | , , , , , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | unknown |
Published: |
Nature Publishing Group
2021
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Subjects: | |
Online Access: | http://hdl.handle.net/10261/267845 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020-00967-7 https://doi.org/10.13039/501100002341 https://doi.org/10.13039/501100000780 https://doi.org/10.13039/501100005781 https://doi.org/10.13039/501100002674 |
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ftcsic:oai:digital.csic.es:10261/267845 |
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record_format |
openpolar |
institution |
Open Polar |
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Digital.CSIC (Spanish National Research Council) |
op_collection_id |
ftcsic |
language |
unknown |
topic |
Community ecology Phenology |
spellingShingle |
Community ecology Phenology Roslin, Tomas Antão, Laura Hällfors, Maria Meyke, Evgeniy Lo, Coong Tikhonov, Gleb Delgado, María del Mar Gurarie, Eliezer Abadonova, Marina Abduraimov, Ozodbek Adrianova, Olga Akimova, Tatiana Akkiev, Muzhigit Ananin, Aleksandr Andreeva, Elena Andriychuk, Natalia Antipin, Maxim Arzamascev, Konstantin Babina, Svetlana Babushkin, Miroslav Bakin, Oleg Barabancova, Anna Basilskaja, Inna Belova, Nina Belyaeva, Natalia Bespalova, Tatjana Bisikalova, Evgeniya Bobretsov, Anatoly Bobrov, Vladimir Bobrovskyi, Vadim Bochkareva, Elena Bogdanov, Gennady Bolshakov, Vladimir Bondarchuk, Svetlana Bukharova, Evgeniya Butunina, Alena Buyvolov, Yuri Buyvolova, Anna Bykov, Yuri Chakhireva, Elena Chaschina, Olga Herenkova, Nadezhda Chistjakov, Sergej Chuhontseva, Svetlana Davydov, Evgeniy A. Demchenko, Viktor Diadicheva, Elena Dobrolyubov, Aleksandr Dostoyevskaya, Ludmila Drovnina, Svetlana Drozdova, Zoya Dubanaev, Akynaly Dubrovsky, Yuriy Elsukov, Sergey Epova, Lidia Ermakova, Olga Ermakova, Olga S. Ershkova, Elena Esengeldenova, Aleksandra Evstigneev, Olga Fedchenko, Irina Fedotova, Violetta Filatova, Tatiana Gashev, Sergey Gavrilov, Anatoliy Gaydysh, Irina Golovcov, Dmitrij Goncharova, Nadezhda Gorbunova, Elena Gordeeva, Tatyana Grishchenko, Vitaly Gromyko, Ludmila Hohryakov, Vladimir Hritankov, Alexander Ignatenko, Elena Igosheva, Svetlana Ivanova, Uliya Ivanova, Natalya Kalinkin, Yury Kaygorodova, Evgeniya Kazansky, Fedor Kiseleva, Darya Knorre, Anastasia Kolpashikov, Leonid Korobov, Evgenii Korolyova, Helen Korotkikh, Natalia Kosenkov, Gennadiy Kossenko, Sergey Kotlugalyamova, Elvira Kozlovsky, Evgeny Kuberskaya, Olga Kudryavtsev, Aleksey Kulebyakina, Elena Kulsha, Yuliia Kupriyanova, Margarita Kurbanbagamaev, Murad Kutenkov, Anatoliy Kutenkova, Nadezhda Kuyantseva, Nadezhda Kuznetsov, Andrey Larin, Evgeniy Lebedev, Pavel Litvinov, Kirill Luzhkova, Natalia Mahmudov, Azizbek Makovkina, Lidiya Mamontov, Viktor Mayorova, Svetlana Megalinskaja, Irina Meydus, Artur Minin, Aleksandr Mitrofanov, Oleg Motruk, Mykhailo Myslenkov, Aleksandr Nasonova, Nina Nemtseva, Natalia Nesterova, Irina Nezdoliy, Tamara Niroda, Tatyana Novikova, Tatiana Panicheva, Darya Pavlov, Alexey Pavlova, Klara Podolski, Sergei Polikarpova, Natalja Polyanskaya, Tatiana Pospelova, Elena Prokhorov, Ilya Prokosheva, Irina Puchnina, Lyudmila Putrashyk, Ivan Raiskaya, Julia Rozhkov, Yuri Rozhkova, Olga Rudenko, Marina Rybnikova, Irina Rykova, Svetlana Sahnevich, Miroslava Samoylov, Alexander Sanko, Valeri Sapelnikova, Inna Sazonov, Sergei Selyunina, Zoya Shalaeva, Ksenia Shashkov, Maksim Shshcerbakov, Anatoliy Shevchyk, Vasyl Shubin, Sergej Shujskaja, Elena Sibgatullin, Rustam Sikkila, Natalia Sitnikova, Elena Sivkov, Andrei Skok, Nataliya Skorokhodova, Svetlana Smirnova, Elena Sokolova, Galina Sopin, Vladimir Spasovski, Yurii Stepanov, Sergei Stratiy, Vitaliy Strekalovskaya, Violetta Sukhov, Alexander Suleymanova, Guzalya Sultangareeva, Lilija Teleganova, Viktorija Teplov, Viktor Teplova, Valentina Tertitsa, Tatiana Timoshkin, Vladislav Tirski, Dmitry Tolmachev, Andrej Tomilin, Aleksey Tselishcheva, Ludmila Turgonov, Mirabdulla Tyukh, Yurij Van, Polina Van, Vladimir Vasin, Aleksander Vasina, Aleksandra Vekliuk, Anatoliy Vetchinnikova, Lidia Vinogradov, Vladislav Volodchenkov, Nikolay Voloshina, Inna Xoliqov, Tura Yablonovska-Grishchenko, Eugenia Yakovlev, Vladimir Yakovleva, Marina Yantser, Oksana Yarema, Yurij Zahvatov, Andrey Zakharov, Valery Zelenetskiy, Nicolay Zheltukhin, Anatolii Zubina, Tatyana Kurhinen, Juri Ovaskainen, Otso Phenological shifts of abiotic events, producers and consumers across a continent |
topic_facet |
Community ecology Phenology |
description |
Ongoing climate change can shift organism phenology in ways that vary depending on species, habitats and climate factors studied. To probe for large-scale patterns in associated phenological change, we use 70,709 observations from six decades of systematic monitoring across the former Union of Soviet Socialist Republics. Among 110 phenological events related to plants, birds, insects, amphibians and fungi, we find a mosaic of change, defying simple predictions of earlier springs, later autumns and stronger changes at higher latitudes and elevations. Site mean temperature emerged as a strong predictor of local phenology, but the magnitude and direction of change varied with trophic level and the relative timing of an event. Beyond temperature-associated variation, we uncover high variation among both sites and years, with some sites being characterized by disproportionately long seasons and others by short ones. Our findings emphasize concerns regarding ecosystem integrity and highlight the difficulty of predicting climate change outcomes. The work was financially supported by the Academy of Finland, grants 250243 (O.O.), 284601 (O.O.), 309581 (O.O.); the European Research Council, ERC Starting Grant 205905 (O.O.) and Synergy Grant 856506 – LIFEPLAN (to O.O. and T.R.); Nordic Environment Finance Corporation Grant (O.O.); Jane and Aatos Erkko Foundation Grant (O.O., T.R., M.H., L.A.); University of Helsinki HiLIFE Fellow Grant 2017–2020 (O.O.); and the Research Council of Norway through its Centres of Excellence Funding Scheme (223257) to O.O. via Centre for Biodiversity Dynamics; the Kone Foundation 44-6977 (M.D.) and 55-14839 (G.T.); a Spanish Ramon y Cajal grant RYC-2014-16263 (M.D.); the Federal Budget for the Forest Research Institute of Karelian Research Centre Russian Academy of Sciences 220-2017-0003, 0220-2017-0005 (L.V., S.S. and J.K.); the Russian Foundation for Basic Research Grant 16-08-00510 (L.K.), and the Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation 0017-2019-0009 (Keldysh ... |
author2 |
Academy of Finland European Commission Jane and Aatos Erkko Foundation University of Helsinki Research Council of Norway Kone Foundation Russian Academy of Sciences |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Roslin, Tomas Antão, Laura Hällfors, Maria Meyke, Evgeniy Lo, Coong Tikhonov, Gleb Delgado, María del Mar Gurarie, Eliezer Abadonova, Marina Abduraimov, Ozodbek Adrianova, Olga Akimova, Tatiana Akkiev, Muzhigit Ananin, Aleksandr Andreeva, Elena Andriychuk, Natalia Antipin, Maxim Arzamascev, Konstantin Babina, Svetlana Babushkin, Miroslav Bakin, Oleg Barabancova, Anna Basilskaja, Inna Belova, Nina Belyaeva, Natalia Bespalova, Tatjana Bisikalova, Evgeniya Bobretsov, Anatoly Bobrov, Vladimir Bobrovskyi, Vadim Bochkareva, Elena Bogdanov, Gennady Bolshakov, Vladimir Bondarchuk, Svetlana Bukharova, Evgeniya Butunina, Alena Buyvolov, Yuri Buyvolova, Anna Bykov, Yuri Chakhireva, Elena Chaschina, Olga Herenkova, Nadezhda Chistjakov, Sergej Chuhontseva, Svetlana Davydov, Evgeniy A. Demchenko, Viktor Diadicheva, Elena Dobrolyubov, Aleksandr Dostoyevskaya, Ludmila Drovnina, Svetlana Drozdova, Zoya Dubanaev, Akynaly Dubrovsky, Yuriy Elsukov, Sergey Epova, Lidia Ermakova, Olga Ermakova, Olga S. Ershkova, Elena Esengeldenova, Aleksandra Evstigneev, Olga Fedchenko, Irina Fedotova, Violetta Filatova, Tatiana Gashev, Sergey Gavrilov, Anatoliy Gaydysh, Irina Golovcov, Dmitrij Goncharova, Nadezhda Gorbunova, Elena Gordeeva, Tatyana Grishchenko, Vitaly Gromyko, Ludmila Hohryakov, Vladimir Hritankov, Alexander Ignatenko, Elena Igosheva, Svetlana Ivanova, Uliya Ivanova, Natalya Kalinkin, Yury Kaygorodova, Evgeniya Kazansky, Fedor Kiseleva, Darya Knorre, Anastasia Kolpashikov, Leonid Korobov, Evgenii Korolyova, Helen Korotkikh, Natalia Kosenkov, Gennadiy Kossenko, Sergey Kotlugalyamova, Elvira Kozlovsky, Evgeny Kuberskaya, Olga Kudryavtsev, Aleksey Kulebyakina, Elena Kulsha, Yuliia Kupriyanova, Margarita Kurbanbagamaev, Murad Kutenkov, Anatoliy Kutenkova, Nadezhda Kuyantseva, Nadezhda Kuznetsov, Andrey Larin, Evgeniy Lebedev, Pavel Litvinov, Kirill Luzhkova, Natalia Mahmudov, Azizbek Makovkina, Lidiya Mamontov, Viktor Mayorova, Svetlana Megalinskaja, Irina Meydus, Artur Minin, Aleksandr Mitrofanov, Oleg Motruk, Mykhailo Myslenkov, Aleksandr Nasonova, Nina Nemtseva, Natalia Nesterova, Irina Nezdoliy, Tamara Niroda, Tatyana Novikova, Tatiana Panicheva, Darya Pavlov, Alexey Pavlova, Klara Podolski, Sergei Polikarpova, Natalja Polyanskaya, Tatiana Pospelova, Elena Prokhorov, Ilya Prokosheva, Irina Puchnina, Lyudmila Putrashyk, Ivan Raiskaya, Julia Rozhkov, Yuri Rozhkova, Olga Rudenko, Marina Rybnikova, Irina Rykova, Svetlana Sahnevich, Miroslava Samoylov, Alexander Sanko, Valeri Sapelnikova, Inna Sazonov, Sergei Selyunina, Zoya Shalaeva, Ksenia Shashkov, Maksim Shshcerbakov, Anatoliy Shevchyk, Vasyl Shubin, Sergej Shujskaja, Elena Sibgatullin, Rustam Sikkila, Natalia Sitnikova, Elena Sivkov, Andrei Skok, Nataliya Skorokhodova, Svetlana Smirnova, Elena Sokolova, Galina Sopin, Vladimir Spasovski, Yurii Stepanov, Sergei Stratiy, Vitaliy Strekalovskaya, Violetta Sukhov, Alexander Suleymanova, Guzalya Sultangareeva, Lilija Teleganova, Viktorija Teplov, Viktor Teplova, Valentina Tertitsa, Tatiana Timoshkin, Vladislav Tirski, Dmitry Tolmachev, Andrej Tomilin, Aleksey Tselishcheva, Ludmila Turgonov, Mirabdulla Tyukh, Yurij Van, Polina Van, Vladimir Vasin, Aleksander Vasina, Aleksandra Vekliuk, Anatoliy Vetchinnikova, Lidia Vinogradov, Vladislav Volodchenkov, Nikolay Voloshina, Inna Xoliqov, Tura Yablonovska-Grishchenko, Eugenia Yakovlev, Vladimir Yakovleva, Marina Yantser, Oksana Yarema, Yurij Zahvatov, Andrey Zakharov, Valery Zelenetskiy, Nicolay Zheltukhin, Anatolii Zubina, Tatyana Kurhinen, Juri Ovaskainen, Otso |
author_facet |
Roslin, Tomas Antão, Laura Hällfors, Maria Meyke, Evgeniy Lo, Coong Tikhonov, Gleb Delgado, María del Mar Gurarie, Eliezer Abadonova, Marina Abduraimov, Ozodbek Adrianova, Olga Akimova, Tatiana Akkiev, Muzhigit Ananin, Aleksandr Andreeva, Elena Andriychuk, Natalia Antipin, Maxim Arzamascev, Konstantin Babina, Svetlana Babushkin, Miroslav Bakin, Oleg Barabancova, Anna Basilskaja, Inna Belova, Nina Belyaeva, Natalia Bespalova, Tatjana Bisikalova, Evgeniya Bobretsov, Anatoly Bobrov, Vladimir Bobrovskyi, Vadim Bochkareva, Elena Bogdanov, Gennady Bolshakov, Vladimir Bondarchuk, Svetlana Bukharova, Evgeniya Butunina, Alena Buyvolov, Yuri Buyvolova, Anna Bykov, Yuri Chakhireva, Elena Chaschina, Olga Herenkova, Nadezhda Chistjakov, Sergej Chuhontseva, Svetlana Davydov, Evgeniy A. Demchenko, Viktor Diadicheva, Elena Dobrolyubov, Aleksandr Dostoyevskaya, Ludmila Drovnina, Svetlana Drozdova, Zoya Dubanaev, Akynaly Dubrovsky, Yuriy Elsukov, Sergey Epova, Lidia Ermakova, Olga Ermakova, Olga S. Ershkova, Elena Esengeldenova, Aleksandra Evstigneev, Olga Fedchenko, Irina Fedotova, Violetta Filatova, Tatiana Gashev, Sergey Gavrilov, Anatoliy Gaydysh, Irina Golovcov, Dmitrij Goncharova, Nadezhda Gorbunova, Elena Gordeeva, Tatyana Grishchenko, Vitaly Gromyko, Ludmila Hohryakov, Vladimir Hritankov, Alexander Ignatenko, Elena Igosheva, Svetlana Ivanova, Uliya Ivanova, Natalya Kalinkin, Yury Kaygorodova, Evgeniya Kazansky, Fedor Kiseleva, Darya Knorre, Anastasia Kolpashikov, Leonid Korobov, Evgenii Korolyova, Helen Korotkikh, Natalia Kosenkov, Gennadiy Kossenko, Sergey Kotlugalyamova, Elvira Kozlovsky, Evgeny Kuberskaya, Olga Kudryavtsev, Aleksey Kulebyakina, Elena Kulsha, Yuliia Kupriyanova, Margarita Kurbanbagamaev, Murad Kutenkov, Anatoliy Kutenkova, Nadezhda Kuyantseva, Nadezhda Kuznetsov, Andrey Larin, Evgeniy Lebedev, Pavel Litvinov, Kirill Luzhkova, Natalia Mahmudov, Azizbek Makovkina, Lidiya Mamontov, Viktor Mayorova, Svetlana Megalinskaja, Irina Meydus, Artur Minin, Aleksandr Mitrofanov, Oleg Motruk, Mykhailo Myslenkov, Aleksandr Nasonova, Nina Nemtseva, Natalia Nesterova, Irina Nezdoliy, Tamara Niroda, Tatyana Novikova, Tatiana Panicheva, Darya Pavlov, Alexey Pavlova, Klara Podolski, Sergei Polikarpova, Natalja Polyanskaya, Tatiana Pospelova, Elena Prokhorov, Ilya Prokosheva, Irina Puchnina, Lyudmila Putrashyk, Ivan Raiskaya, Julia Rozhkov, Yuri Rozhkova, Olga Rudenko, Marina Rybnikova, Irina Rykova, Svetlana Sahnevich, Miroslava Samoylov, Alexander Sanko, Valeri Sapelnikova, Inna Sazonov, Sergei Selyunina, Zoya Shalaeva, Ksenia Shashkov, Maksim Shshcerbakov, Anatoliy Shevchyk, Vasyl Shubin, Sergej Shujskaja, Elena Sibgatullin, Rustam Sikkila, Natalia Sitnikova, Elena Sivkov, Andrei Skok, Nataliya Skorokhodova, Svetlana Smirnova, Elena Sokolova, Galina Sopin, Vladimir Spasovski, Yurii Stepanov, Sergei Stratiy, Vitaliy Strekalovskaya, Violetta Sukhov, Alexander Suleymanova, Guzalya Sultangareeva, Lilija Teleganova, Viktorija Teplov, Viktor Teplova, Valentina Tertitsa, Tatiana Timoshkin, Vladislav Tirski, Dmitry Tolmachev, Andrej Tomilin, Aleksey Tselishcheva, Ludmila Turgonov, Mirabdulla Tyukh, Yurij Van, Polina Van, Vladimir Vasin, Aleksander Vasina, Aleksandra Vekliuk, Anatoliy Vetchinnikova, Lidia Vinogradov, Vladislav Volodchenkov, Nikolay Voloshina, Inna Xoliqov, Tura Yablonovska-Grishchenko, Eugenia Yakovlev, Vladimir Yakovleva, Marina Yantser, Oksana Yarema, Yurij Zahvatov, Andrey Zakharov, Valery Zelenetskiy, Nicolay Zheltukhin, Anatolii Zubina, Tatyana Kurhinen, Juri Ovaskainen, Otso |
author_sort |
Roslin, Tomas |
title |
Phenological shifts of abiotic events, producers and consumers across a continent |
title_short |
Phenological shifts of abiotic events, producers and consumers across a continent |
title_full |
Phenological shifts of abiotic events, producers and consumers across a continent |
title_fullStr |
Phenological shifts of abiotic events, producers and consumers across a continent |
title_full_unstemmed |
Phenological shifts of abiotic events, producers and consumers across a continent |
title_sort |
phenological shifts of abiotic events, producers and consumers across a continent |
publisher |
Nature Publishing Group |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/10261/267845 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020-00967-7 https://doi.org/10.13039/501100002341 https://doi.org/10.13039/501100000780 https://doi.org/10.13039/501100005781 https://doi.org/10.13039/501100002674 |
geographic |
Norway |
geographic_facet |
Norway |
genre |
karelia* karelian |
genre_facet |
karelia* karelian |
op_relation |
http://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020-00967-7 Sí doi:10.1038/s41558-020-00967-7 issn: 1758-6798 Nature Climate Change 11: 241-248 (2021) http://hdl.handle.net/10261/267845 http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100002341 http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100000780 http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100005781 http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100002674 |
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none |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020-00967-710.13039/50110000234110.13039/50110000078010.13039/50110000578110.13039/501100002674 |
container_title |
Nature Climate Change |
container_volume |
11 |
container_issue |
3 |
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241 |
op_container_end_page |
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1790602459783102464 |
spelling |
ftcsic:oai:digital.csic.es:10261/267845 2024-02-11T10:05:25+01:00 Phenological shifts of abiotic events, producers and consumers across a continent Roslin, Tomas Antão, Laura Hällfors, Maria Meyke, Evgeniy Lo, Coong Tikhonov, Gleb Delgado, María del Mar Gurarie, Eliezer Abadonova, Marina Abduraimov, Ozodbek Adrianova, Olga Akimova, Tatiana Akkiev, Muzhigit Ananin, Aleksandr Andreeva, Elena Andriychuk, Natalia Antipin, Maxim Arzamascev, Konstantin Babina, Svetlana Babushkin, Miroslav Bakin, Oleg Barabancova, Anna Basilskaja, Inna Belova, Nina Belyaeva, Natalia Bespalova, Tatjana Bisikalova, Evgeniya Bobretsov, Anatoly Bobrov, Vladimir Bobrovskyi, Vadim Bochkareva, Elena Bogdanov, Gennady Bolshakov, Vladimir Bondarchuk, Svetlana Bukharova, Evgeniya Butunina, Alena Buyvolov, Yuri Buyvolova, Anna Bykov, Yuri Chakhireva, Elena Chaschina, Olga Herenkova, Nadezhda Chistjakov, Sergej Chuhontseva, Svetlana Davydov, Evgeniy A. Demchenko, Viktor Diadicheva, Elena Dobrolyubov, Aleksandr Dostoyevskaya, Ludmila Drovnina, Svetlana Drozdova, Zoya Dubanaev, Akynaly Dubrovsky, Yuriy Elsukov, Sergey Epova, Lidia Ermakova, Olga Ermakova, Olga S. Ershkova, Elena Esengeldenova, Aleksandra Evstigneev, Olga Fedchenko, Irina Fedotova, Violetta Filatova, Tatiana Gashev, Sergey Gavrilov, Anatoliy Gaydysh, Irina Golovcov, Dmitrij Goncharova, Nadezhda Gorbunova, Elena Gordeeva, Tatyana Grishchenko, Vitaly Gromyko, Ludmila Hohryakov, Vladimir Hritankov, Alexander Ignatenko, Elena Igosheva, Svetlana Ivanova, Uliya Ivanova, Natalya Kalinkin, Yury Kaygorodova, Evgeniya Kazansky, Fedor Kiseleva, Darya Knorre, Anastasia Kolpashikov, Leonid Korobov, Evgenii Korolyova, Helen Korotkikh, Natalia Kosenkov, Gennadiy Kossenko, Sergey Kotlugalyamova, Elvira Kozlovsky, Evgeny Kuberskaya, Olga Kudryavtsev, Aleksey Kulebyakina, Elena Kulsha, Yuliia Kupriyanova, Margarita Kurbanbagamaev, Murad Kutenkov, Anatoliy Kutenkova, Nadezhda Kuyantseva, Nadezhda Kuznetsov, Andrey Larin, Evgeniy Lebedev, Pavel Litvinov, Kirill Luzhkova, Natalia Mahmudov, Azizbek Makovkina, Lidiya Mamontov, Viktor Mayorova, Svetlana Megalinskaja, Irina Meydus, Artur Minin, Aleksandr Mitrofanov, Oleg Motruk, Mykhailo Myslenkov, Aleksandr Nasonova, Nina Nemtseva, Natalia Nesterova, Irina Nezdoliy, Tamara Niroda, Tatyana Novikova, Tatiana Panicheva, Darya Pavlov, Alexey Pavlova, Klara Podolski, Sergei Polikarpova, Natalja Polyanskaya, Tatiana Pospelova, Elena Prokhorov, Ilya Prokosheva, Irina Puchnina, Lyudmila Putrashyk, Ivan Raiskaya, Julia Rozhkov, Yuri Rozhkova, Olga Rudenko, Marina Rybnikova, Irina Rykova, Svetlana Sahnevich, Miroslava Samoylov, Alexander Sanko, Valeri Sapelnikova, Inna Sazonov, Sergei Selyunina, Zoya Shalaeva, Ksenia Shashkov, Maksim Shshcerbakov, Anatoliy Shevchyk, Vasyl Shubin, Sergej Shujskaja, Elena Sibgatullin, Rustam Sikkila, Natalia Sitnikova, Elena Sivkov, Andrei Skok, Nataliya Skorokhodova, Svetlana Smirnova, Elena Sokolova, Galina Sopin, Vladimir Spasovski, Yurii Stepanov, Sergei Stratiy, Vitaliy Strekalovskaya, Violetta Sukhov, Alexander Suleymanova, Guzalya Sultangareeva, Lilija Teleganova, Viktorija Teplov, Viktor Teplova, Valentina Tertitsa, Tatiana Timoshkin, Vladislav Tirski, Dmitry Tolmachev, Andrej Tomilin, Aleksey Tselishcheva, Ludmila Turgonov, Mirabdulla Tyukh, Yurij Van, Polina Van, Vladimir Vasin, Aleksander Vasina, Aleksandra Vekliuk, Anatoliy Vetchinnikova, Lidia Vinogradov, Vladislav Volodchenkov, Nikolay Voloshina, Inna Xoliqov, Tura Yablonovska-Grishchenko, Eugenia Yakovlev, Vladimir Yakovleva, Marina Yantser, Oksana Yarema, Yurij Zahvatov, Andrey Zakharov, Valery Zelenetskiy, Nicolay Zheltukhin, Anatolii Zubina, Tatyana Kurhinen, Juri Ovaskainen, Otso Academy of Finland European Commission Jane and Aatos Erkko Foundation University of Helsinki Research Council of Norway Kone Foundation Russian Academy of Sciences 2021-01-28 http://hdl.handle.net/10261/267845 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020-00967-7 https://doi.org/10.13039/501100002341 https://doi.org/10.13039/501100000780 https://doi.org/10.13039/501100005781 https://doi.org/10.13039/501100002674 unknown Nature Publishing Group http://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020-00967-7 Sí doi:10.1038/s41558-020-00967-7 issn: 1758-6798 Nature Climate Change 11: 241-248 (2021) http://hdl.handle.net/10261/267845 http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100002341 http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100000780 http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100005781 http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100002674 none Community ecology Phenology artículo http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501 2021 ftcsic https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020-00967-710.13039/50110000234110.13039/50110000078010.13039/50110000578110.13039/501100002674 2024-01-16T11:23:30Z Ongoing climate change can shift organism phenology in ways that vary depending on species, habitats and climate factors studied. To probe for large-scale patterns in associated phenological change, we use 70,709 observations from six decades of systematic monitoring across the former Union of Soviet Socialist Republics. Among 110 phenological events related to plants, birds, insects, amphibians and fungi, we find a mosaic of change, defying simple predictions of earlier springs, later autumns and stronger changes at higher latitudes and elevations. Site mean temperature emerged as a strong predictor of local phenology, but the magnitude and direction of change varied with trophic level and the relative timing of an event. Beyond temperature-associated variation, we uncover high variation among both sites and years, with some sites being characterized by disproportionately long seasons and others by short ones. Our findings emphasize concerns regarding ecosystem integrity and highlight the difficulty of predicting climate change outcomes. The work was financially supported by the Academy of Finland, grants 250243 (O.O.), 284601 (O.O.), 309581 (O.O.); the European Research Council, ERC Starting Grant 205905 (O.O.) and Synergy Grant 856506 – LIFEPLAN (to O.O. and T.R.); Nordic Environment Finance Corporation Grant (O.O.); Jane and Aatos Erkko Foundation Grant (O.O., T.R., M.H., L.A.); University of Helsinki HiLIFE Fellow Grant 2017–2020 (O.O.); and the Research Council of Norway through its Centres of Excellence Funding Scheme (223257) to O.O. via Centre for Biodiversity Dynamics; the Kone Foundation 44-6977 (M.D.) and 55-14839 (G.T.); a Spanish Ramon y Cajal grant RYC-2014-16263 (M.D.); the Federal Budget for the Forest Research Institute of Karelian Research Centre Russian Academy of Sciences 220-2017-0003, 0220-2017-0005 (L.V., S.S. and J.K.); the Russian Foundation for Basic Research Grant 16-08-00510 (L.K.), and the Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation 0017-2019-0009 (Keldysh ... Article in Journal/Newspaper karelia* karelian Digital.CSIC (Spanish National Research Council) Norway Nature Climate Change 11 3 241 248 |