Long-term hazard assessment of explosive eruptions at Jan Mayen (Norway) and implications for air traffic in the North Atlantic
Volcanic eruptions are among the most jeopardizing natural events due to their potential impacts on life, assets, and the environment. In particular, atmospheric dispersal of volcanic tephra and aerosols during explosive eruptions poses a serious threat to life and has significant consequences for i...
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Online Access: | http://hdl.handle.net/10261/260583 https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-139-2022 https://doi.org/10.13039/501100000780 |
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ftcsic:oai:digital.csic.es:10261/260583 2024-02-11T10:05:21+01:00 Long-term hazard assessment of explosive eruptions at Jan Mayen (Norway) and implications for air traffic in the North Atlantic Titos, Manuel Martínez Montesinos, Beatriz Barsotti, Sara Sandri, Laura Folch, Arnau Mingari, Leonardo Macedonio, Giovanni Costa, Antonio European Commission Folch, Arnau 2022-01 http://hdl.handle.net/10261/260583 https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-139-2022 https://doi.org/10.13039/501100000780 en eng European Geosciences Union #PLACEHOLDER_PARENT_METADATA_VALUE# info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/MITURCO//TSI-020100-2008-0587/ES/m-CORDIS: SISTEMA INTEGRAL DE TELEMONITORIZACIÓN CARDIOLÓGICA PARA VEHÍCULOS DE EMERGENCIAS MÉDICAS SOBRE REDES DE COMUNICACIÓN INALÁMBRICAS CON ITINERANCIA TRANSPARENTE/ Publisher's version https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-139-2022 Sí Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 22: 139–163 (2022) 1561-8633 http://hdl.handle.net/10261/260583 doi:10.5194/nhess-22-139-2022 1684-9981 http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100000780 open Volcanology Jan Mayen Island artículo http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501 2022 ftcsic https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-139-202210.13039/501100000780 2024-01-16T11:18:51Z Volcanic eruptions are among the most jeopardizing natural events due to their potential impacts on life, assets, and the environment. In particular, atmospheric dispersal of volcanic tephra and aerosols during explosive eruptions poses a serious threat to life and has significant consequences for infrastructures and global aviation safety. The volcanic island of Jan Mayen, located in the North Atlantic under trans-continental air traffic routes, is considered the northernmost active volcanic area in the world with at least five eruptive periods recorded during the last 200 years. However, quantitative hazard assessments on the possible consequences for the air traffic of a future ash-forming eruption at Jan Mayen are nonexistent. This study presents the first comprehensive long-term volcanic hazard assessment for the volcanic island of Jan Mayen in terms of ash dispersal and concentration at different flight levels. In order to delve into the characterization and modeling of that potential impact, a probabilistic approach based on merging a large number of numerical simulations is adopted, varying the volcano's eruption source parameters (ESPs) and meteorological scenario. Each ESP value is randomly sampled following a continuous probability density function (PDF) based on the Jan Mayen geological record. Over 20 years of meteorological data is considered in order to explore the natural variability associated with weather conditions and is used to run thousands of simulations of the ash dispersal model FALL3D on a 2 km resolution grid. The simulated scenarios are combined to produce probability maps of airborne ash concentration, arrival time, and persistence of unfavorable conditions at flight levels 50 and 250 (FL050 and FL250). The resulting maps can serve as an aid during the development of civil protection strategies, to decision-makers and aviation stakeholders, in assessing and preventing the potential impact of a future ash-rich eruption at Jan Mayen. This research has been supported by the European ... Article in Journal/Newspaper Jan Mayen Jan Mayen Island North Atlantic Digital.CSIC (Spanish National Research Council) Jan Mayen Norway Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 22 1 139 163 |
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Open Polar |
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Digital.CSIC (Spanish National Research Council) |
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ftcsic |
language |
English |
topic |
Volcanology Jan Mayen Island |
spellingShingle |
Volcanology Jan Mayen Island Titos, Manuel Martínez Montesinos, Beatriz Barsotti, Sara Sandri, Laura Folch, Arnau Mingari, Leonardo Macedonio, Giovanni Costa, Antonio Long-term hazard assessment of explosive eruptions at Jan Mayen (Norway) and implications for air traffic in the North Atlantic |
topic_facet |
Volcanology Jan Mayen Island |
description |
Volcanic eruptions are among the most jeopardizing natural events due to their potential impacts on life, assets, and the environment. In particular, atmospheric dispersal of volcanic tephra and aerosols during explosive eruptions poses a serious threat to life and has significant consequences for infrastructures and global aviation safety. The volcanic island of Jan Mayen, located in the North Atlantic under trans-continental air traffic routes, is considered the northernmost active volcanic area in the world with at least five eruptive periods recorded during the last 200 years. However, quantitative hazard assessments on the possible consequences for the air traffic of a future ash-forming eruption at Jan Mayen are nonexistent. This study presents the first comprehensive long-term volcanic hazard assessment for the volcanic island of Jan Mayen in terms of ash dispersal and concentration at different flight levels. In order to delve into the characterization and modeling of that potential impact, a probabilistic approach based on merging a large number of numerical simulations is adopted, varying the volcano's eruption source parameters (ESPs) and meteorological scenario. Each ESP value is randomly sampled following a continuous probability density function (PDF) based on the Jan Mayen geological record. Over 20 years of meteorological data is considered in order to explore the natural variability associated with weather conditions and is used to run thousands of simulations of the ash dispersal model FALL3D on a 2 km resolution grid. The simulated scenarios are combined to produce probability maps of airborne ash concentration, arrival time, and persistence of unfavorable conditions at flight levels 50 and 250 (FL050 and FL250). The resulting maps can serve as an aid during the development of civil protection strategies, to decision-makers and aviation stakeholders, in assessing and preventing the potential impact of a future ash-rich eruption at Jan Mayen. This research has been supported by the European ... |
author2 |
European Commission Folch, Arnau |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Titos, Manuel Martínez Montesinos, Beatriz Barsotti, Sara Sandri, Laura Folch, Arnau Mingari, Leonardo Macedonio, Giovanni Costa, Antonio |
author_facet |
Titos, Manuel Martínez Montesinos, Beatriz Barsotti, Sara Sandri, Laura Folch, Arnau Mingari, Leonardo Macedonio, Giovanni Costa, Antonio |
author_sort |
Titos, Manuel |
title |
Long-term hazard assessment of explosive eruptions at Jan Mayen (Norway) and implications for air traffic in the North Atlantic |
title_short |
Long-term hazard assessment of explosive eruptions at Jan Mayen (Norway) and implications for air traffic in the North Atlantic |
title_full |
Long-term hazard assessment of explosive eruptions at Jan Mayen (Norway) and implications for air traffic in the North Atlantic |
title_fullStr |
Long-term hazard assessment of explosive eruptions at Jan Mayen (Norway) and implications for air traffic in the North Atlantic |
title_full_unstemmed |
Long-term hazard assessment of explosive eruptions at Jan Mayen (Norway) and implications for air traffic in the North Atlantic |
title_sort |
long-term hazard assessment of explosive eruptions at jan mayen (norway) and implications for air traffic in the north atlantic |
publisher |
European Geosciences Union |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/10261/260583 https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-139-2022 https://doi.org/10.13039/501100000780 |
geographic |
Jan Mayen Norway |
geographic_facet |
Jan Mayen Norway |
genre |
Jan Mayen Jan Mayen Island North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
Jan Mayen Jan Mayen Island North Atlantic |
op_relation |
#PLACEHOLDER_PARENT_METADATA_VALUE# info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/MITURCO//TSI-020100-2008-0587/ES/m-CORDIS: SISTEMA INTEGRAL DE TELEMONITORIZACIÓN CARDIOLÓGICA PARA VEHÍCULOS DE EMERGENCIAS MÉDICAS SOBRE REDES DE COMUNICACIÓN INALÁMBRICAS CON ITINERANCIA TRANSPARENTE/ Publisher's version https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-139-2022 Sí Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 22: 139–163 (2022) 1561-8633 http://hdl.handle.net/10261/260583 doi:10.5194/nhess-22-139-2022 1684-9981 http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100000780 |
op_rights |
open |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-139-202210.13039/501100000780 |
container_title |
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences |
container_volume |
22 |
container_issue |
1 |
container_start_page |
139 |
op_container_end_page |
163 |
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1790602369388511232 |